Worst Cases Terror and Catastrophe in the Popular Imagination
by Lee Clarke
University of Chicago Press, 2005
Cloth: 978-0-226-10859-9 | Paper: 978-0-226-79010-7 | Electronic: 978-0-226-10860-5
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226108605.001.0001
ABOUT THIS BOOKAUTHOR BIOGRAPHYREVIEWSTABLE OF CONTENTS

ABOUT THIS BOOK

Al Qaeda detonates a nuclear weapon in Times Square during rush hour, wiping out half of Manhattan and killing 500,000 people. A virulent strain of bird flu jumps to humans in Thailand, sweeps across Asia, and claims more than fifty million lives. A single freight car of chlorine derails on the outskirts of Los Angeles, spilling its contents and killing seven million. An asteroid ten kilometers wide slams into the Atlantic Ocean, unleashing a tsunami that renders life on the planet as we know it extinct.

We consider the few who live in fear of such scenarios to be alarmist or even paranoid. But Worst Cases shows that such individuals—like Cassandra foreseeing the fall of Troy—are more reasonable and prescient than you might think. In this book, Lee Clarke surveys the full range of possible catastrophes that animate and dominate the popular imagination, from toxic spills and terrorism to plane crashes and pandemics. Along the way, he explores how the ubiquity of worst cases in everyday life has rendered them ordinary and mundane. Fear and dread, Clarke argues, have actually become too rare: only when the public has more substantial information and more credible warnings will it take worst cases as seriously as it should.

A timely and necessary look into how we think about the unthinkable, Worst Cases will be must reading for anyone attuned to our current climate of threat and fear.

AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY

Lee Clarke is a sociologist at Rutgers University. He is the author of Mission Improbable: Using Fantasy Documents to Tame Disaster, published by the University of Chicago Press, and Acceptable Risk? Making Decisions in a Toxic Environment. He is also the editor of Terrorism and Disaster: New Threats, New Ideas.

REVIEWS

"The practical need for improvisation at all levels of societal response is unquestionable, particularly for major disasters, and Clarke’s book provides a stimulus for the basic and applied studies that are needed."
— American Journal of Sociology

“Clarke’s book… is even more timely in 2021 than it was when first published. Clarke wants ordinary citizens and policymakers to pay more attention to potential catastrophic events: events improbable, but still possible, with consequences so severe that we ignore them at our peril.”
— First Things

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Preface

- Lee Clarke
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226108605.003.0001
[worst cases, frightening, enlightening, disasters, cognitive patterns, institutional patters]
This chapter discusses the theme of this volume which is about the so-called worst cases. This volume examines how extreme events happen, how they come to be thought of as worst cases, how projections of the worst cases are built and what the worst cases do. It suggests that looking at the worst case will allow people not only to see what is frightening but what is also enlightening. The central argument of this volume is that worst cases or disaster are normal parts of life, they may be spectacular but they are also prosaic in their cognitive and institutional patterns. (pages 1 - 24)
This chapter is available at:
    https://academic.oup.com/chica...

- Lee Clarke
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226108605.003.0002
[globally relevant disasters, probabilism, interdependence, modern society, anti-cassandras, probabilistic thinking, possibilities]
This chapter examines globally relevant disasters and explores the perils of probabilism. It discusses the role of concentration and interdependence in the way people create conditions for disasters and suggests that the way modern society is organized creates the potential for more and more serious, worst cases. This chapter comments on the arguments of the anti-cassandras which rest on the idea of probabilism. It suggests that while we do need probabilistic thinking, we should not concentrate so much on probabilities that we forget the possibilities. (pages 25 - 60)
This chapter is available at:
    https://academic.oup.com/chica...

- Lee Clarke
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226108605.003.0003
[worst cases, imagination, cognitive resilience, what if, mental mechanisms, institutional mechanisms]
This chapter examines the factors and processes in how worst cases are imagined. It analyzes the mental and institutional mechanisms at work when people imagine things. It suggests that whether we are looking forward in anticipation or looking back to make sense of a situation the imagination is at work, holding some factors at bay while highlighting others, creating scenarios and then trying to convince ourselves and others of their reasonableness. This chapter also explores the relation between cognitive resilience and virtual worst cases, and explains how to tell a good “what if” from a bad one. (pages 61 - 98)
This chapter is available at:
    https://academic.oup.com/chica...

- Lee Clarke
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226108605.003.0004
[risk communication, panic, worst case risk, scapegoating, blame, politics, social conflict, power]
This chapter analyzes risk communication, the problem of panic, the greatest worst case risk that Americans face and the issues of scapegoating and blame. It suggests that politics and social conflict are never far away even in worst cases and even when there is urgent suffering. This chapter examines the conflicts that shape the character of danger and argues that power is exceedingly important in talk about disaster, the production of disaster, responses to disaster, and how people make sense of disasters after they happen. (pages 99 - 128)
This chapter is available at:
    https://academic.oup.com/chica...

- Lee Clarke
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226108605.003.0005
[worst cases, disasters, patterned phenomena, learning, political gaming, new ideas, profit, social betterment, social clearing]
This chapter examines the good things or the silver linings of worst cases or disasters. It explains that worst cases and disasters are patterned phenomena with complex causes and effects. And while they cause pain and sufferings, they also provide opportunities for learning, for political gaming, for the development of new ideas, and even for profit. Social clearing caused by disasters can also lead to social betterment. (pages 129 - 160)
This chapter is available at:
    https://academic.oup.com/chica...

- Lee Clarke
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226108605.003.0006
[worst cases, disasters, illusions of control, preemptive resilience, counterfactuals, probabilism]
This chapter discusses the need to live with the fact that there will always be worst cases and disasters. People should not fear them but prepare for them. This chapter provides some recommendations on how to deal with worst cases. These include demystifying the illusions of control that are proffered to us by our leaders and expected by the public, fostering preemptive resilience, and using counterfactuals and probabilism wisely. (pages 161 - 186)
This chapter is available at:
    https://academic.oup.com/chica...

Notes

Index