臺灣人民移民海外的意願、原因、與影響因素之變遷

本研究以推拉因素理論來分析並實證研究近年影響臺灣人民移民意願與想移民原因之決定因素。我們使用中央研究院人文社會科學研究中心「華人家庭動態資料庫」之資料來進行實證分析，先整理並分析受訪者的移民意願、想要移民的原因，繼而使用Logit Model與Multinomial Logit Model來進一步研究影響受訪者移民意願和想移民原因的決定因素。資料整理結果顯示近年來有移民意願者之比例並不高，約在4%至6%之間，而生活環境因素為主要想移民的原因，政治因素與經濟因素次之。計量實證結果則顯示受訪者個人特徵背景、工作類型、與總體經濟環境等因素對於其移民意願、與想移民之原因皆有顯著影響。

關鍵字

移民意願；遷徙；推拉因素理論；華人家庭動態資料庫；邏輯迴歸分析

並列摘要

How many people in Taiwan have the intention to emigrate to other countries? What are the reasons behind the intentions? What factors influence their intentions and the reasons behind? This paper examines the determinants of the intentions and the rationale behind Taiwanese emigrating abroad. We use the data from "Panel Study of Family Dynamics" of Taiwan to conduct empirical examinations. The data show that the percentage of population with intentions to emigrate to other countries was around 4% to 6% in Taiwan. Pursuing better living qualities is the main reason for the intention of emigration, followed by political reasons and economic reasons. The results of econometric estimations show that personal variables, job types, and aggregate economic conditions have significant impacts on the intentions and the reasons of emigration.