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  • 學位論文

整合能源安全與環境保護之能源供給規劃研究

Energy Planning Research Based on Integration of Energy Security and Environmental Protection

指導教授 : 馬鴻文
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摘要


隨著全球暖化問題日益嚴峻、傳統能源加速耗竭、能源價格的大幅震盪與能源技術發展的不確定性,能源安全已列為各國能源政策重點,並進行能源戰略布局。本研究藉由建立多面向能源安全指標檢視過去台灣在確保能源安全政策推動上的成效;並藉由上開指標探討目前台灣政府提出的能源政策與未來能源供需規劃對未來能源安全的影響。結果發現,現階段政府所規劃之能源政策有助於提升未來能源安全,惟囿於進口能源比例仍偏高,將受國際能源價格影響造成能源成本負擔持續增加,而提升能源效率目標的達成情形的不確定性,將影響部分能源安全項目的預期成效。 面對未來社會及經濟發展可能存在的風險與不確定性,透過能源供給種類的多元化來控制能源進口來源的風險與成本,使國家在可負擔的價格水準下獲得充分能源供應,為目前許多國家能源安全政策的主要方向。多樣性有助於能源系統有效因應外在環境的改變與衝擊,可降低對單一來源供應中斷的脆弱性及各供給來源的市場力。本研究以Hirschman-Herfindahl 指標、Shannon-Weiner指標為基礎,提出能源供應之「多樣性可靠度指標」與「共變多樣性可靠度指標」,闡述各類能源對整體能源系統安全實質貢獻度之差異與能源市場中各類能源變動之關聯性對能源安全的影響,以補足能源多樣性組合在降低能源供應短缺與成本大幅變動等風險對提升能源安全的實質意義。 另本研究運用「共變多樣性可靠度指標」,建置納入能源安全面向考量之3E多目標規劃模型,並就擴大再生能源發展、達成減碳目標與非核家園等政策情境,分別模擬2015年至2030年之電力與能源結構,及對總體經濟面之GDP成長率、環境面之溫室氣體排放狀況、能源面之電力成本、能源消費與能源安全指標變動之影響。

並列摘要


Facing the challenges of global warming, energy scarcity, and energy price fluctuations, many countries consider energy security to be a major part of energy policy and have started to develop relevant strategies. This study applies multi-dimensional energy security indicators to review the performance of Taiwan’s energy security related measures and to analyze the impacts of the current energy policy on Taiwan’s energy security. The results show that Taiwan’s current energy policy is effective in improving the security of the energy supply. Taiwan’s dependence on imported energy is rather high, however, which makes Taiwan vulnerable to international energy price fluctuations and liable to suffer from increased energy costs. The uncertainty of energy efficiency improvement will hence affect the expected results of the energy security. Facing the risk and uncertainty inherent in social and economic development, many countries have adopted an energy supply diversification strategy in their energy security policy to control the energy import risk and cost to ensure that sufficient energy can be obtained at an affordable price level. Diversification helps the energy system respond to external changes and shocks. Diversification can also lessen the vulnerability of a single energy source to supply shocks and the market power of various energy supply sources. This study develops the “diversity reliability index” and “co-vary diversity reliability index” based on the Hirschman-Herfindahl and Shannon-Wiener indices, investigates the contribution of different energy sources to the energy system, and analyzes the covariance between various energies and their impacts on energy security to determine the impact of energy diversity in reducing the risk of energy supply shortages and cost fluctuations. This study also used “co-vary diversity reliability index”, which includes multi-objective model of 3E to simulated the electricity and energy structure from 2015 to 2030 by different scenarios of expand renewable energy development, achieving carbon mitigation goal and implement of nuclear free homeland policy. And effects on growth rate of GDP of the general economy, greenhouse gas emission, electricity costs, energy consumption, and the variance of energy security indicators.

參考文獻


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被引用紀錄


馮君強(2015)。台灣能源安全之動態評估:系統建立與應用〔博士論文,國立中央大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0031-0412201512074516

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