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  • 學位論文

九一一事件後中國國家安全戰略觀的演變:結構現實主義觀點

The Evolvement of the China’ National Security Policy after 911 Attack: In the View of Structural Realism

指導教授 : 郝培芝

摘要


冷戰結束後部分學者專家用守勢現實主義來解釋中國當時國家安全政策,本研究也同意以此觀點用來解釋當時中國的國家安全政策。然而,”911事件”的發生使得情勢產生變化,在新的國際權力結構之下,守勢現實主義的解釋有所不足之處,本研究認為由於”911事件”的發生,國際權力結構因美國全球性戰略的調整而產生變化,中國也因結構的調整受到不小的衝擊,面臨美國的圍堵,中國被迫作出了許多政策性的調整與回應,尤其在安全政策方面,藉由官方的政策文件內容以及中國的對外行為觀察得知,中國逐步地調整了其在冷戰後防禦性的安全政策,漸漸地轉變成向外擴張的修正型國家,並且對於美國全球戰略性的調整作出全面性的回應。因此,本論文提出以結構現實主義的理論,並論證結構現實主義能夠有效地解釋”911事件”後中國的國家安全戰略觀的演變,證明”911事件”後的中國是一個意圖採取尋求向外擴張、試圖改變現狀的修正型國家。 本論文運用「維持現狀」、「嚇阻戰略」和「昂貴信號」三個指標,進行個案研究分別檢視”911事件”後中國東南沿海軍事集結情形以及中國在臺海的戰略部署(2004年臺灣總統大選後-2007.3),觀察”911事件”後中國在其國家安全戰略上作了哪些調整,而這些調整與變化是否與結構現實主義所預測的一致。本文觀察出”911事件”後由於美國調整其全球戰略佈局,造成國際體系的結構的變化,中國藉此機會增強其軍事外交實力,對外擴張權力。”911事件”後中國在東南軍事部署變為更加主動、對臺的戰略部署也是轉被動為主動,不僅在南海、海峽兩岸這兩個目前對中國領土最有爭議地區中國有想要改變現狀的意圖,甚至由其海洋、海軍戰略觀察到中國海軍從近海防禦型逐步朝向「區域遠洋」型海軍推進,而每年不斷攀升的國防預算以及軍事費用的支出,皆證明中國已有朝著外向型擴張的國家的準備。因此,本文論證出因為”911事件”的發生,中國確實逐步在國家安全政策方面作了調整,逐漸轉變成為對於維持現狀不滿的修正型國家、以及反對美國單極獨霸國際格局的挑戰者。

並列摘要


After the end of the Cold War some scholars and other experts referred to the theory of “Defensive Realism” when explaining China’s security policy at that time, an approach this study widely However, things have changed since 911, and after a fundamental restructuring in the global balance of power, using the theory of “Defensive Realism” is now not sufficient when analyzing China’s security strategies. This study claims that after 911 the international balance of power changed, mainly because the USA revised their global strategy, thus forcing China to respond by a wide range of policy adjustments, especially concerning security. Using official policy documents and analyzing China’s actions, it was noted that China gradually changed its rather defensive security policy over the time and became a revisionist state, especially in responding to the United State’s new global strategy. This thesis is successfully applying the theory of “Structural Realism” to effectively explain the changes in China’s security policy since 911 and showing that the China after 911 has become a country seeking to expand its power on the world stage, a revisionist state attempting to change the current situation. This thesis uses three indicators, maintaining the status quo, deterrence strategy, and costly signal, to observe and to study if China has made some adjustment of it’s military strategic placement in South-Eastern coast and Taiwan Strait after 911 Attack (from the date of president election of the Republic of China in 2004 up to March 2007) and to discuss if the adjustment is in agreement with the prediction of structural realism. This passage finds out that due to U.S. has changed its global military strategy placement after 911 Attack, the structure of global relationship has been changed and China has seized opportunity to enhance its military and diplomatic power and to expand its power toward the world. Moreover, the attitude of Chinese government has become more positive to the military strategy placement of South-Eastern coast and Taiwan Trait after 911 Attack. Not only China has tried to change it’s current situation with two controversial territories, the South China Sea and Taiwan, but also China has shifted it’s naval strategy from coast-defense oriented to seaward oriented. A significant increasing budget and expense of Chinese military development is able to prove that China is preparing to expanse its military toward the world. Therefore, the passage demonstrates that China is, indeed, adjusting its national security policy and becoming unsatisfied with current situation and turning into a revisionist state gradually. China is becoming a challenger against United States, played an exclusive role administrating the international society.

參考文獻


王崑義,〈想像的危機:「反恐時代」美國的危機建構與台灣的戰略選擇〉,《遠景基金會季刊》,4卷2期,2003年4月,頁73。
王崑義、蔡裕明,<和平崛起:轉型中的中國國際戰略與對台戰略思考>,《全球政治評論》,第九期,2005,頁43-49。
宋興洲,<中國崛起:修正型強權或現狀型國家>,《全球政治評論 》,第11卷, 民93.07,頁19-60。
李文志、蕭文軒,<大湄公河流域爭霸戰:大湄公河經濟合作的推展及其戰略意涵>,《台灣東南亞學刊》,2 卷1 期,2005 年,頁83-126。
陳欣之,<國際安全研究之理論變遷與挑戰>,《遠景基金會季刊》,民92.07月,頁1-39。

被引用紀錄


陳妍華(2008)。中國西南區域整合戰略 —以大湄公河次區域合作為核心〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2008.02537
呂紹麒(2013)。中國國家安全戰略的改變---以南海及東海為例〔碩士論文,國立臺北大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0023-2806201320511800

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