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  • 學位論文

貨幣政策利率傳遞管道之最適選擇-台灣實證研究

The Optimal Interest Rate Transmission of Monetary Policy -An Empirical Study of Taiwan

指導教授 : 謝德宗

摘要


早期央行操作目標以控量(如:準備貨幣)為主,但隨著各國持續調降存款準備率及直接金融日漸深化,央行對於掌握貨幣乘數變動情形大不如前,尤其在價格機制能充分效率發揮後,利率逐漸成為各國央行執行貨幣政策的新寵兒,亦意味著利率傳遞管道在貨幣政策中迅速躍居關鍵性角色。 本研究重點在於利用相關性分析、Granger因果關係檢定法以及迴歸分析法,探討我國央行是否可藉由政策利率來協助引導目標之達成,因而本研究循序傳統架構探討貨幣政策操作對金融面及實質經濟活動之影響。 此外,利用VAR模型的衝擊反應函數(Impulse Response Function, IRF)及預測誤差之變異分解(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) 來瞭解在經濟體系中,當政策利率變動時,對整體經濟金融之影響以及其間的變動關係。 本研究期間從1996年3月至2006年2月,以月資料進行實證研究,本文實證結果摘錄如下: 1.央行執行公開市場操作微調時,主以銀行超額準備及隔拆利率水準為判斷準則,是以國內央行在貨幣政策決策上係以價量兼控方式進行。另外,國內金融市場屬於極具效率性,能立即有效反映央行政策操作變動,有助央行將操作目標逐步轉向完全以控價為主。 2.雖國內各長短期利率與央行政策走勢可謂幾乎一致,但10年期指標公債利率受影響因素較為複雜,以致其利率走勢非央行所能左右。 3.未來我國央行若欲以利率為操作目標時,則可選取隔拆利率變動及五大銀行新承做放款利率變動分別作為我國貨幣政策利率傳遞機制之最適短、長期利率代理變數。 4.隔拆利率對五大銀行新承做放款利率之影響是立即且顯著,但五大銀行新承做放款利率對股票市場卻幾無作用,須透過工業生產指數才得以將政策意圖傳遞至消費者物價指數及股票市場,顯見央行貨幣政策並未直接明確影響國內股票市場報酬率。同時也意味著股票市場並非央行執行政策的目標變數。 5.央行調整隔拆利率之行為,會對市場及銀行利率產生立即效果,並影響實質經濟活動,惟影響期間並不長,是以央行若欲政策效果能持續發揮,則必須持續推行。

並列摘要


In the early stage the goal of CBC operations is to control reserve currency. Because every country decreases the deposit reserve rate and the depth of direct finance is getting more popular, CBC is losing the power to dominate monetary change. When the effect of pricing is completely workable, the interest rate becomes CBC’s favorable tool in each country. That is, the channel of transmission in interest rate plays a key role in monetary policy. In this paper, there are three hypotheses, including analysis of correlation, Granger causal relationship test, and analysis of regression, to explore whether our CBC can help lead target achievement by the policy rate. Thus, this research is aimed to analyze the influence of monetary policy operations on finance and real sector based on the structure of the traditional monetary policy. In addition, we can use impulse response function and forecast error variance decomposition to know the impact on macroeconomy finance and the variance relation when the policy rate changes. This period of the study is by monthly data basis from Mar 1996 to Feb 2006. The results of the study are summarized as follows: 1、Depending on the interbank call-loan rates and excess reserve, CBC conducts open market operations. However, our financial markets can efficiently respond to the changes in CBC’s operation policies in time. Therefore CBC could change operative targets from controlling quantities to controlling prices. 2、Although all sorts of interest rates and CBC’s policy trends are said nearly unanimous, 10-year government bond yield is affected by more complex consideration factors. So CBC does not only control its yields. 3、In the future when CBC wants to regard interest rate as operating target, change in interbank call-loan rates and change on the average lending rate of the five major domestic banks represent the best short- and long-term interest rate separately in interest rate transmission mechanism of monetary policy. 4、Interbank call-loan rates affect the average lending rate of the five major domestic banks quickly and significantly. However, the relationship between the average lending rate of the five major domestic banks and stock market is insignificant, which means there is no causality between them. By means of real GDP channel, CBC’s policy intention could transfer to CPI and stock market to ensure whole transmission completely. 5、CBC adjusts interbank call-loan rates soon affect not only market or banks rates but also real GDP, CPI, and stock market. But the reaction period of various variables is not long. Therefore, the CBC has to continually conduct the above policy so that the effect can last.

參考文獻


26.Christiano Lawrence J., Martin Eichenbaum, and Charles L. Evans(2000)“Monetary Policy Shocks:What Have We Learned and to What End?”J. Taylor and M. Woodford(eds.) Handbook of Macroeconomics, North Holland
28.Fair, Ray C. and E. Phillip Howrey(1996)“Evaluating Alternative Monetary Policy Rules,”Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 38(2), pp.173-193
29.Fung, Ben S.C.(2002)“A VAR analysis of the effects of monetary policy in East Asia,”BIS Working Papers, No.119
31.Jensen, Gerald R., Jeffrey M. Mercer, and Robert R. Johnson(1996)“Business conditions, monetary policy, and expected security returns,”Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 40(2), pp.213-237, February 1996
33.Leeper, Eric M., Christopher A. Sims and Tao Zha(1996)“What Does Monetary Policy Do?”Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 2, pp.1-78, November 1996

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