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  • 學位論文

運用層級貝氏理論於顧客價值隨機模型之參數估計

Applying Hierarchical Bayesian Theory to the Parameters Estimation in a Stochastic Customer Value Model

指導教授 : 蔣明晃 郭瑞祥

摘要


在消費意識日益高漲的時代,行銷人員面對的不再是個均質的大眾市場,而是一個個具有個別差異的顧客,因此強調與顧客建立長期而穩定關係之關係行銷,以及考慮顧客異質性的一對一行銷成為主流。本研究主要目的是運用層級貝氏理論於顧客價值隨機模型,進而達成估計顧客個人價值之目的。 本研究方法包含以下步驟: 1. 建構結合RFM與馬可夫鏈之顧客價值隨機模型。 2. 運用層級貝氏理論來進行顧客個人參數分配之推導。 3. 運用馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法來進行顧客個人參數估計。 4. 計算顧客個人價值。 基於上述之方法,本研究在理論上的具體貢獻為運用層級貝氏理論來推導出顧客個人之參數分配式,以及使用馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法來估計出顧客個人參數估計值。 於實證研究方面,本研究利用某工業用電腦廠商之實際銷售資料來進行本模型之資料驗證。結果顯示本研究之顧客價值分析模型,能夠捕捉顧客異質性,並能預測個別顧客的購買行為,以達一對一行銷之效。

並列摘要


In the consumer-conscious time, marketing administrators do not face a homogeneous mass market, but rather a heterogeneous market. Relationship marketing which accentuates long run and stable relationship with customers and one-to-one marketing which considers heterogeneities between customers have become the mainstream. The goal of this thesis is to apply hierarchical Bayesian theory to the parameters estimation in a stochastic customer value model that can be utilized to estimate customers’ individual values. Our proposed model consists of the following steps: 1. Construct a stochastic model of customers’ lifetime values by combining the RFM and Markov Chain theories. 2. Apply hierarchical Bayesian theory to the derivation of parameters’ distribution in the above stochastic model. 3. Estimate model’s parameters by using the Markov Chain Monte-Carlo procedure. 4. Calculate customers’ individual lifetime value. The main contributions of this thesis are to apply hierarchical Bayesian theory to the derivation of parameters’ distribution and to estimate model’s parameters by using the Markov Chain Monte-Carlo procedure. In the empirical validation, the proposed method has been validated using an industrial computer company’s sales data. Results of our study show that our model can catch heterogeneity between customers and predict each customer’s purchase behavior very well.

並列關鍵字

Hierarchical Bayesian MCMC

參考文獻


[01] 陳宏毅,“顧客價值分析之隨機模型建立及實證”,國立台灣大學商學研究所論文,2003
[01] A.Bauer, “A Direct Mail Customer Purchase Model”, Journal of Direct Marketing, 2(3), pp.16-24, 1998
[02] Allenby, Greg M., “Bayesian Statistics and Marketing”, July 2002
[03] Allenby, Greg M., Robert P. Leone, and Lichung Jen, “A Dynamic Model of Purchase Timing with Application to Direct Marketing”, Journal of American Statistics Association, Vol.93, No.446, pp.365-374,1999
[04] Berger, Paul D. and Nada I. Nasr, “Customer Lifetime Value: Marketing Models and Applications”, Journal of Interactive Marketing, Vol. 12, pp.17-29, 1998

被引用紀錄


杜契漢(2012)。線上購物網站之個人化產品推薦系統〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2012.10112
陳薏棻(2006)。應用層級貝式理論於跨商品類別之顧客購買期間預測模型〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2006.00787
呂玉敏(2005)。應用雙變量層級貝氏定理於顧客價值分析─以網路購物為例〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2005.00415

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