Demographic and socio-economic factors including sustainability related indexes in waste generation and recovery
There has been plenty of research on the influence of various socio-economic and demographic data on waste generation to develop effective and targeted waste reduction measures, including energy recovery. This study evaluates the relationship between the waste generation and Circular Material Use rate, Environmental Tax Revenue, and Global Innovation Index beyond the typical socio-economic factors (e.g., gross domestic product or population). Correlation analysis is conducted on the EU-27 datasets before the development of the predictive model. The correlation strength between the factors is discussed to identify the potential rebound effect from the central driver of economic growth and development. A positive correlation and partial rebound effect are identified in the data. The waste amount ending in disposal and energy recovery treatment increases with the Circular Material Use rate, suggesting that the expected gains from Circular Material Use rate are offset by other socio-economic factors such as increasing population or gross domestic product. However, a diminishing trend is observed in the rebound effect over the years. Multiple linear regression with validation is applied to identify the best fit model for predicting waste generation. Using population, gross domestic product, Circular Material Use rate, and Environmental Tax Revenues as independent variables, a model is generated with a mean absolute percentage error of 18.65% (7% lower than the benchmark) and R2 (coefficient of determination) of 0.995.
