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2016, vol. 71, br. 5, str. 677-684
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Uporedna procena rizika eksploatacije stare i nove deponije pepela i šljake Termoelektrana Kostolac, po hidrološkom scenariju
Comparative risk assessment of exploitation of old and new thermal power plant's ash disposal sites in Kostolac, according to hydrological scenario
Univerzitet u Beogradu, Rudarsko-geološki fakultet, Srbija
Projekat: Unapređenje tehnologije površinske eksploatacije lignita u cilju povećanja energetske efikasnosti, sigurnosti i zaštite na radu (MPNTR - 33039)
Sažetak
U ovom radu data je uporedna procena rizika eksploatacije stare i nove deponije pepela i šljake u Kostolcu. Procena rizika je vršena prema FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) metodi u kombinaciji sa matricom rizika, koja podrazumeva detaljnu razradu scenarija potencijalne havarije na deponiji i analizu posledica koje bi ta havarija izazvala. Kao scenario potencijalne havarije uzet je u obzir isključivo hidrološki scenario koji se bazira na prilivu velikih količina atmosferskih padavina, uzročniku najvećeg broja havarija na deponijama industrijskog otpada ikada zabeleženih. Analizirane su ekološke posledice, potencijalni ljudski gubici i ekonomske posledice. Prema matrici rizika ustanovljeno je da se obe deponije nalaze u "plavoj" zoni rizika, koje se tumače kao tolerantan nivo rizika, ali se nova deponija ipak nalazi u povoljnijoj poziciji od stare deponije jer je očekivani nivo rizika niži za jedan stepen.
Abstract
In this paper a comparative risk assessment of the exploitation of old and new ash disposal sites in Kostolac is given. Risk assessment is carried out according to the FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) method in combination with a risk matrix, which includes a detailed elaboration of potential accident scenario at disposal sites and analysis of consequences that accident can cause. As a potential accident scenario only hydrological scenario is taken into consideration, which is based on the influx of large amounts of precipitation, the cause of the largest number of accidents at industrial disposal sites. Analyses of environmental consequences, potential human losses and economic consequences are given. According to the risk matrix it is found that both of disposal sites are in the 'blue' zone of risk, which is interpreted as a tolerable level of risk, although the new disposal site is still in a better position than the old one because the expected level of risk is lower by one degree.
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