SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT DIRECTIONS OF RURAL TOURISM OF TIMOK REGION

In Eastern Serbia in the Timok Region, the cult of household hospitality is still fostered. The Timok region belongs to the underdeveloped parts of Serbia and starting from the fact that the growth of local economy capacity also leads to overall regional development, the development of rural tourism could contribute to the well-being of the region. The paper examines sustainable development directions of rural tourism, taking into account the economic, environmental and social components, which are elements of sustainability. The authors apply Multi-CriteriaDecision-Making methods, ELECTRE as main, and AHP as an auxiliary method in the selection of an adequate and optimal solution. The aim of the paper is choosing the optimal projects for the development of rural tourism in the Timok region, based on well-defined criteria, among the several proposed projects. © 2020 EA. All rights reserved.


Introduction
Considering the views of many authors (Pearce at al., 1989;Bramwell, 1994;Seaton et al., 1994), rural tourism destinations can be defined as broader areas with natural and forested environments where particular natural, economic and socio-cultural features exist, such as tradition, local co-operation, trust, and good relationships and agriculture represents an economic branch with specificities and developments that do not comply with the classical economic laws (Drăgoi et al., 2018). These elements create a special tourism product that is primarily based on a small-scale economy, friendly to the The first part of the paper deals with the study of relevant literature and description of the general characteristics of the Timok region, while the second presents the analysis and selection of one of the proposed development directions, i.e. projects that would most assist in solving the current situation regarding certain development elements of rural tourism in the Timok region. The methodology used in this paper is the application of Multi-Criteria Decision Making, namely the ELECTRE method in its basic version and the AHP method as ancillary (to calculating the criteria weights). Finally, the authors propose a concrete application and give reasons why the chosen development direction is most suitable for the development of rural tourism in Eastern Serbia, in particular, the Timok region.

Timok region -general characteristics and tourism potential
The Timok region is located in the eastern part of Serbia. It borders with Romania to the North and Bulgaria to the East. It stretches between the Danube with two corridors: Corridor X (Serbia) and Corridor IV (Bulgaria) ( into account the fact that the growth of local economy capacities also leads to overall regional development, the Strategy of Regional Economic Development of the Timok region was drafted which is a basic component of the process of present and future work of RARIS's-Regional Development Agencies of East Serbia. The goal of local development is to unify the changes that are planned for the future and that creates a sustainable business environment. A sustainable business environment would provide predictability of factors relevant to business, opportunities for attracting direct investment and increasing employment, attractiveness for investing and making profit, for both existing and new market entrants, opportunities for personal and professional affirmation, incentive for domestic and foreign investments in the local community, new quality of life in the local community, with effects on the whole region but also the possibility of developing rural tourism in this part of the country (Ilić, B. & Stojanović, D., 2019). To narrow down / refine the thematic focus of each strategic development priority, the directions of development with the highest potential have been identified. The regional development strategy of the Timok region will achieve the overall objective through the priority areas of development, strategic and cross-sectoral or horizontal priorities. The strategic development priorities include agriculture and food processing, energy based on renewable energy sources, tourism as well as the exploitation and processing of mineral resources. Horizontal priorities linking these sectors are transported in the region, support for investment and entrepreneurial spirit, the region's human resources (which are increasingly depleted) and a healthy environment (Ilić, B., 2016). Development can be achieved by sustainable consumption (Sima & Gheorghe, 2015) and country of origin serves as a very important basis for this consumption (Šapić et al., 2018). All that that require an integrated approach to the social, economic, environmental, and technological environment (Nica et al., 2018).
The tourism potential of the Timok region is unevenly developed. From relatively developed -Sokobanja, archeological sites "Felix Romuliana" and Lepenski Vir, Stara Planina Nature Park (Babin zub), Djerdap National Park, Gamzigrad Spa, Brestovac Spa, to underdeveloped cities -Zajecar and Bor and other municipal centers, with over 50 cultural, artistic and sporting events, natural and cultural-historical sights, hunting grounds, tourist spots in the neighborhood and the beginnings of rural tourism in a small number of surrounding villages.
The existing tourists and recreational offer of the whole Timok region are not sufficiently recognized and developed (Ilić, B., 2020). Considering the facts, based on the Regional Development Strategy, five directions of development have been identified within this Strategic Development Priority. Three of them are of the first category: cultural tourism -there are a large number of cultural monuments, archaeological sites, historical monuments and natural sites in the Timok region. Sports -recreational and health (spa) tourism -there is a long tradition in this type of tourism (more than 170 years), and there is great potential in existing hydro-geothermal sources, which are used for various therapeutic purposes. Mountain tourism, due to the terrain of Stara Planina with the highest mountain peak in Serbia (Midžor, 2,169 m), which is suitable for hiking and http://ea.bg.ac.rs skiing (it has the highest number of snow days per year in Serbia). The following priorities have been identified as priorities of the second category: Rural tourismin the region, there are still preserved authentic rural areas with traditional rural life, including unique wine cellars in Rajac, Rogljevo, and Smedovac. Specialized forms of tourism, such as hunting tourism and speleology -one of the best hunting grounds in Serbia (Dubašnica) is located on the territory of Bor Municipality, and in this area, there are three very attractive caves, which are considered the most beautiful and the longest in Serbia. The development of tourism as a strategic development priority under the Regional Development Plan could be based on two elements: 1. adaptability, to maintain long-term profitability, by continually adapting to the competitive environment and needs of tourists and enhancing the attractiveness and originality of the destination, 2. sustainability, as an ability to profitability is achieved and maintained with minimal negative impacts on society and the environment. ELECTRE and AHP Multi-Criteria Decision Making methods were used to select the optimal development direction of rural tourism in the Timok region.

Multicriteria Decision Making -MCDM
The concept of MCDM refers to situations where there are several conflicting criteria (Čupić, M., Tummala, R. & Suknovic, M., 2001). According to many authors, MCDM is divided into multi-objective (MODM -VCO) and multi-attribute decision making (MADM -VAO) (Zimmermann, N. E., 1996). MCDM methodology based on the analysis of criteria and alternatives so that one alternative is better than the other (Durkalić et al., 2019). A typical example of this decision-making is the mathematical programming of the problem of multi-objective functions, known as the "Vectormaximum" problem (Kuhn, H.W. & Tucker, A.W., 1951). The decision-making process consists of two components: the objectively defined projects component and the subjectively defined criteria component. The relationship between projects and criteria is established through attributes that are characterized as project characteristics, relevant to decision making and through the choice of the right solution. Decisionmakers' preferences are subjective, and examining attribute-based on criteria is a subjective process (Vanderpooten, D., 1990). Although the area of MCDM has a very diverse set of methods that differ from one another, common characteristics of problems can be separated and solved by their application (Hwang, C.L. & Yoon, K. 1981): 1. The abundance of criteria or attributes that the decision-maker must emphasize; 2. Criterion conflict; 3. The indivisibility of individual units of measurement (a particular property or requirement); 4. Selection of the best actions from a set of predefined ones. The research in the paper is based on finding adequate development projects of a tourist resort, Timok region using the multiple criteria ELECTRE method for determining priorities between particular alternatives i.e. criteria. Therefore, this way of examining offered development projects, giving the new approach to the problem of improving tourism in the Timok region, based on the results obtained in the wider area. The ELECTRE method provides a solution to the problem of project ranking, taking into account various criteria. Some of the selected criteria could be quantified and some only presented qualitatively, and for the application of the ELECTRE and AHP methods, several opposing criteria that evaluated the development of Timok region projects were crucial. This means that certain criteria, such as distance (from the city), the number of geothermal wales, activity, and (negative) impact on environmental protection, were related to immeasurable units. The AHP method was used as an auxiliary method for determining the weighted values of the criteria, which certainly contributes to the objectivity of project selection. The concept of applying multi-criteria decision-making goes through several stages, which will be explained in more detail.

ELECTRE and AHP methods
The ELECTRE (Elimination and Choice Translating Reality) method was developed by Bernard Lee Roy (1968) as a response to the existing decision-making methods and as part of the Multicriteria Decision Theory. This method occupies a very significant place in the theory of Multi-Criteria Decision Making and in the papers of Vincke, Roy, Vanderpooten and other authors who researched the field of MCDM (Vincke, P., 1992., & Roy, B., Vanderpooten, D.,1996). The ELECTRE method has several versions (ELECTRE I-IV). In practice, the most commonly encountered is the ELECTRE I method for determining the partial ordering of alternatives, as well as the ELECTRE II method for completely arranging a set of alternatives (Nikolić, M., 2009a). ELECTRE I was created between 1993 and 1996 (Roy, B., 1993). In the further evolution, ELECTRE II, ELECTRE III, ELECTRE IV, as well as two further upgrades, ELECTRE IS and ELECTRE TRI, were created (Hokkanen, J. & Salminen, P., 1997). They differ in the way they are applied and in the type of problems they solve (Simpson, L., 1996). Simpson compared the SMART method to the ELECTRE method and concluded that "there are no major differences between these methods, however, that it is obvious that one method is stronger than the other", favoring the ELECTRE method (Simpson, L., 1996). The ELECTRE method could be viewed as a philosophy of a decision aid (Mousseau, V., Roy, B. & Sommerlatt, I., 2000). The following section describes the main 9-step ELECTRE method and the auxiliary AHP method. The main steps of the ELECTRE method include: First, establish a decision matrix. Criteria shown as qualitative values need to be changed into quantitative values. The authors used the following criteria: 1-very low, 3-low, 5 -average, 7 -high, and 9 -very high. A numerical scale, which is using for this purpose, is shown in where ij x is the rating of alternative i A concerning the criteria j C , ( 2 ) Step 3. Determine concordance p r C and discordance ( 4 ) whereJ = {j│j=1,...,n} (all criteria).
wherev er v rj are elements of the weighted normalized decision matrix.
Step Step 1. Construct a pairwise comparison matrix using the fundamental scale of the AHP (Table 2). Equal imported 3 Slightly more importance 5 Strongly more importance 7 Demonstrably more importance 9 Absolutely more importance 2,4,6,8 The  In the pairwise comparison matrix (Table 3) where ij a denotes the comparative importance of criterion i C concerning to criterion j C . In the matrix 1 = Step 2. Calculate the relative normalized weight j w of each criterion by using the following formulae (Saaty, T. L., 1994): where GM is a geometric mean.
Step 4. Obtain the random index R I for the number of criteria used in decision making (Table 4). Table 3 shows the values of the random consistency index for different matrix sizes. Source: (Saaty, T.L., 2014) Step 5. For n>2 calculate the consistency ratio C R by using the following formula (Saaty, T.L., 1980). Agriculture, Year 67, No. 1, 2020, (pp. 157-174), Belgrade

Economics of
( 1 3 ) where RI is the random consistency index, and its value is determined based on the matrix size(Saaty, T.L., 1980). and 0 = p r msd , for PIS s p r < . (14)

Applying ELECTRE and AHP methods for ranking the sustainable directions projects of the Timok region
For the optimal selection of rural tourism development directions of the Timok region, a group of experts in the RARIS development agency is made up of financial consultants, accountants, as well as prominent managers of companies that do well in this area, suggested rural tourism development directions. Directions that were taken into account were financially acceptable and environmentally had little impact on the natural environment. Based on the geographical location and tourism development potential of the Timok region, five development directions have been identified, ie. the following five tourism projects are in the field of rural tourism: -Mountain tourism, -Hunting and fishing tourism, -Health -sports and recreational tourism, Each project, i.e. alternative of the future development of the region, is defined by certain attributes, ie. by the criteria. After talking to a team of experts from the RARIS for development of the Timok region, the following criteria for projects evaluation (with attributes in brackets) were defined:

5.
A -Activity -the opportunity to participate in the activities, traditions, and way of life of the local population, (it has been found necessary that the involvement should be greater), 6. ENP -Environmental protection -Impact on the conservation of the environment, history, and location (it has been determined that maximum environmental management is required).
The criteria are set on unique measures of defined attributes, measures for each development direction. Investing in existing or new capacities (FIN) and profit for the rural community as income are expressed in the form of cash investments with additional parameters (taxes, donations, discounts, fees). The remaining four criteria, based on the team of experts, gained importance in relation to other's ratings from one to ten. The process of summarizing attributes into criteria involves the first level of subjectivity. At this level, the criteria must be accepted by decision-makers. The second level processes preference data, reflecting the relative importance of each criterion. At this level, decision-makers have the opportunity to express their views on their value systems. The initial matrix is composed of the selected development directions and their inputs, based on the given criteria and given in Table 5. The proposed projects were evaluated based on the given criteria, while their evaluation was carried out with maximum objectivity and with the opinion of experts. Based on Table 5, an initial decision matrix, shown in Table 6, was formed. Source: Author's research Using formula 1, based on the values in Tables 5 and 6, the normalized decision matrix was calculated (Table 7). This is the first step of the ELECTRE. Agriculture, Year 67, No. 1, 2020, (pp. 157-174), Belgrade Based on the opinion of two research associates and on the opinion of the one trainee researcher (fields: Economy, Sociology, and Ecology), the weight of criteria was determined by applying the AHP method. The criteria were compared in pairs, and the final values were obtained using the arithmetic mean. The final results of the weighting criteria are as follows (Tables 8, 9, 10 and 11).

CR -Consistency Ratio
Source: Author's research

Source: Author's research
Step 2 is creating the weighted normalized decision matrix using formula 2. The values of the elements of the weighted normalized matrix are given in  Table 14.
Step six is determining the matrix of concordance domination (Mcd, Table  15), based on the average index of concordance (using formula 7). Determination of the matrix of discordance domination (Ddm) based on the average index of discordance is step seven of the ELECTRE (using formula 8) and these elements are shown in Table 16.   In the last, the ninth step of the ELECTRE method, less desirable actions, alternativesprojects, i.e. development directions are eliminated(" → " = "dominates over"). Table 18. shows the ranks of development directions (projects) and as can be seen, the projects that are not dominated are P2 and P5. Alternative i.e. project P1 dominates under the projects P3 and P5, while the project P4 also has an advantage over the projects P2 and P5. The best project is P4 -a project of Health -Sports and Recreational tourism. The research in this paper is a logical continuation of the authors' research and the breakdown of rural tourism projects into subcategories in terms of the concrete best development direction for the Timok region.

Discussion
The aim of the research focuses on the development of the Timok region of Eastern Serbia by choosing the best development direction of rural tourism. To choose the best alternative, it was necessary to objectively apply a method that would rank the alternatives and help in the decision of future investors and certain organizations (such as RARIS) in choosing the optimal solution. A team of experts from RARIS took into account and proposed rural tourism projects using the Brainstorming method. Out of all 14 proposals, a team of experts considered five that could be optimal. In its basic version, the ELECTRE method was applied to reduce costs, in other words saving time and to partially compare the proposed projects. After selecting development projects i.e. directions, the expert team of RARIS composed of research associates and trainee researchers in the fields of economics, ecology, and sociology proposed and evaluated the weights of the criteria, comparing the criteria in pairs. According to the ELECTRE method, one out of the five proposed was one that satisfied the choice of the optimal and best solution. The rural tourism project selected by the ELECTRE method is a health and sports and recreational tourism project. This alternative is also very logical given the fact that the Timok region abounds with hydro-geothermal energy sources that are underutilized or very little utilized.

Conclusion
The Strategy of the Timok region in Eastern Serbia should be based on Healthy-sports and recreational tourism because the investments in this project are lower than the investment of other projects of tourism. Therefore, the authors came up with the results that the project P4 is economically better than others. Taking into account the opinion of experts, together with the ranking method, the results indicate the optimum best option for multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) and the future directions of tourism development. In the experts' opinions and on its rank in the selected methods, besides the least investment, the project of tourism requires the shortest time for realization. So, it can be said that the project of the paper presents ranking projects of the Timok region in Eastern Serbia, applying two methods of MCDM, ELECTRE I and AHP. The results demonstrate, based on these methods and after the project has been calculated that the projects of Healthy-sports and recreational tourism dominate, ie. the best project in P4. If we take into account the financial criterion, the recommendation development tourism is the most important for sustainable development of the Timok region that includes the needs of people, but also to preserve nature in the region of Eastern Serbia.