GROWTH AND INSTABILITY OF EXPORT OF SELECTED FRUITS AND VEGETABLES IN PAKISTAN

The present study was conducted in Faisalabad at


INTRODUCTION
The economy of Pakistan is naturally differentiated by huge source (saving and investment) gaps, Govt. finance shortage and present account difference. The dependence on worldwide contract and overseas capital flow has turned critical to maintain and enhancement of economic growth. At the international level, economic growth has been proven to an engine. For speedy growth, one major cause is the outstanding export performance of East Asian countries. These countries are liberalized for international trade and present various inducements of the export sectors for establishment and growth (Shaheen et al., 2013). Exports from agricultural products comprises of 21% for Pakistan's total exports. The share of agricultural exports verses non-agricultural exports recorded approximately 100% growth as of just 14% to 27% in 200727% in and 201127% in , respectively (GoP, 2012. Globally, agricultural profile of Pakistan is attractively inspiring inspite of its structural limitations. Demand of Pakistani fruits and vegetables have been increased in almost all over the world. Presently, Pakistani fruits and vegetables have been exporting to the European countries, Middle East, India and Sri Lanka. Guava, oranges, pine nuts, kinnow, apple and mango are a small number of well exported fruits from Pakistan. Among vegetables are; onion, garlic, chilli, mushroom and potato. Kinnow is the most exportable fruit of Pakistan having 32.5 percent share of total exports to the middle East, Indonesia (22.5 percent), Philippines (16 percent), Sri Lanka (11.6 percent) and remaining 17.4 percent to other market of the world (GoP, 2013). Food expenditure at domestic level have resulted in efficiency losses about 10% existing wages and GDP losses 2 to 3% in most concerned countries (OECD, 2008). Household customer budget and their kitchen budget well hurts by fluctuating food prices and this disorder show the way to economical instability. This proposed that unpredictable food charges will affect the wellbeing of farmers and costumers massively. Higher prices of necessary food items viz., meat, milk, vegetable and fruit lead to decreased consumption thus provoke nutritional insufficiency amongst masses.
Economic growth of developing countries is restrained by export instability via discouraging the growth of exports. To provide evidence in support of this argument it is necessary to show the relationship between export instability and the growth rate of exports as well as that between the growth rate of exports and the income growth rate (Glezakoz, 1973). The export of eatables experience more fluctuations in developing countries rather than developed countries as agricultural production encompass unpredictable supply (Shida and Muhammad, 2008). Time series data for growth and instability in Pakistan showed higher value of major exports than minor exports which could be ascribed to the increasing domestic demand although major exports also experience instability (Wasim, 1998). Pakistan should do structural modification in the exports of agricultural products by exchanging these products into value added items for consumption (Syed et al., 2015). There is a requirement to investigate other markets for Pakistani vegetables and fruits to get good returns. Excellent storage facilities at affordable prices to farmers, infrastructure and transportation to access the markets as well as information of markets are pre-requisites for reduction of instability in fruits and vegetables export of the country. There is need to assess the rate of change in fruits and vegetables export over a specified period of time to estimate the percentage growth trends that can help to understand the mechanism of export change in order to address export trends to different countries. Present study was planned to assess the growth and instability of major exports of horticultural commodities and export share of fruits and vegetables in total export from Pakistan. This study has been undertaken to measure the production and exports of selected fruits and vegetables in Pakistan for estimation of commodity wise growth and instability in terms of value and quantity of export of Pakistan.

MATERIALS AND METHODS
Current study was conducted by using secondary data during 2019 at Social Sciences Research Institute, Paksitan Agricultural Research Council, Ayub Agricultural Research Institute, Faisalabad, Paksitan. The variables considered in the present study were production of fruits and vegetables, export, value of exports of major commodities/groups and their share in total value of exports. Time series data for exports of selected fruits (mango, kinnow, orange, dates dried), vegetables (potato, tomato, onion, garlic) were taken from the national published data source Fruit, Vegetables and Condiments Statistics of Pakistan. Countries wise time series data of exported fruits and vegetables were taken from AMIS for finding instability of commodity and country. Growth trends of selected commodities were executed by using semi-trend growth model given. The main source of data was Agricultural statistics of Pakistan.

Growth rates
The growth rates and stability was measured Log y = a + t log b Y = Value/quantity/unit value of exports In this model, constant proportional was measured by the slope of coefficient or relative change in Y for a specified absolute change in the rate of the regressor (in this case the variable t) Relative change in regress and β 1 = --------------Absolute change in regressor If 100 multiply the relative change in Y, give the percentage change, or the growth rate, in Y for an absolute change in t, the regressor. That was, 100 times β 1 gave the growth rate in Y; 100 times β 1 was known in the literature as the semi elasticity of Y with respect to t and gave the instantaneous (at a point in time) rate of growth, to find out the compound (over a period of time) rate of growth, the following formula was be applied.

Instability
The measurement of instability in time-series data required an explicit statement of what constitutes the suitable and unacceptable components. Coefficient of variation technique was used to find out instability of specific commodity for specific country/market. Coefficient of variation (CV) has been widely used as measure of instability index. It has a simple explanation. Though, the instability index was estimated by the following formula called Cuddy-Della Valle Index (Cuddy and Della Valle, 1978); CD = CV *(1-R 2 ) 1/2 Where, CD = Cuddy-Della Valle index CV = Coefficient of variation (%) and is equal to standard deviation/mean R 2 = Coefficient of determination

Vegetables area and production in Pakistan
Data in Table 1 provided the production (000 tonnes) of selected vegetables namely; onion, garlic, tomato and potato which indicated the production, export (000 tonnes) and percent share of exported vegetables. The results showed that production of onion was 167.1 thousand tonnes and exported 103.75 thousand tones to other countries. These results showed 6.20 percent share of export in onions production in Pakistan. Similarly, garlic, tomato and potato production (82.1, 570.6 and 4160.1) thousand tones, exports quantity of these vegetables to other countries (1.28, 25.54 and 417.43) and percent share of export are (1.56, 4.47 and 10.034), respectively. Fig. 1 showed time series plot for the quantity of selected exported vegetables which shows fluctuations in export quantity, potato export quantity have more fluctuation as compared to other commodities due to the highest production of potato in our country and export share among vegetables. After 2013 potatoes export quantity was increased yearly due to increased in area and production '000' tonnes in Pakistan. On the other hand garlic graph line shows stagnant trend but tomato had increasing trend in 2008 & 2010. Fig. 2 provided time series plot for vegetables export percent share in total export value (million rupees) and selected vegetables trends represented through this graph lines which indicated garlic share had a great jump from 2012 to 2014 in total export value. Potato graph line showed increasing share in total export value but in 2013-14 potato share decreased after that again increased.

Potato
Pakistan depended on locally produced potatoes. The total annual production under potato crop was estimated of 4160.1 thousand tonnes (Table 1). Almost Punjab contributed to approximately 95 percent of potatoes production. The main potato producing districts in Punjab are Kasur, Sialkot, Sheikhupura, Jhang, Narowal, Pak pattan, Gujranwala, T.T Singh, Okara, Sahiwal, Khanewal and Lahore (Bernier and Plouffe, 2019). Potatoes occupy highest share of vegetables production and for export estimated i.e. 64 and 11%, respectively.

Potato percent share in total export value and instability
The results of potato showed in Table 2 that   worldwide as well as within specific SAARC region and Sri Lanka's present trade potential with Pakistan is high due to Pakistan -Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement (PSFTA) (Nufile et al., 2013). For free trade agreement appropriate trade facilitating appraisal should be available for smooth running of business process. Lack of particular container and requirement for packaging are considering major problems in Pakistan which faced with declining infrastructure and rising costs reported are in case of moving freight (Weerakoon, and Thennakoon, 2006). On the other hand, value of coefficient of variation for Qatar was highest (217.596) among the given markets. Therefore export of potatoes to Qatar market was unstable during the given period because trading commodities between Pakistan and Qatar are cereals, fertilizers, mineral fuels, iron, steel, organic chemicals, meat, plastics, articles of leather, animal gut, harness and travel goods, etc (GoP, 2019).

Tomatoes
All provinces of Pakistan grow tomatoes. Different varieties of tomatoes are cultivated more than about 64 thousand hectares. The yearly production of tomatoes was estimated approximately 570.6 thousand tonnes in Pakistan. Tomatoes export was 25.547 thousand tonnes and percent share in overall vegetables export was 4.47 percent ( Table 1).

Tomatoes percent share in total export value and instability
The results of tomato showed that model was highly significant with the coefficient of 0.065. The results showed 23.573 percent increase in export of tomato with the time increase of one year. The average annual export of tomato was 0.234 thousand tonnes in year 2001 and tomato export 25.547 thousand tonnes in year 2016 ( Table 2). Results in Table 3 observed the minimum value of coefficient of variation as 41.261 percent for Malaysia market. So results showed that export of tomatoes to Malaysian market was stable within the given period trade between Malaysia and Pakistan was presenting escalating trend as a result of Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Malaysia was a prospective market for Pakistani fruits and vegetables as well as cotton yarn, fabric, rice, sports goods, carpets and fish. On the other hand, value of coefficient of variation for Afghanistan is highest (169.467) among the given markets (Table 3). Therefore export of potato to Afghanistan market was unstable during the given period due to security issues.

Onion percent share in total export value and instability
The results of onion showed that model was highly significant as coefficient of 0.086. The results showed 8.096 percent increase in onion export quantity with the time increase of one year. The average annual export growth rate for onion was 56.987 thousand tonnes in year 2001 and 417.434 in year 2016. Results in Table 3 observed the minimum value of coefficient of variation as 69.439 percent for Qatar market. So results showed that export of onion to Qatar market was stable among given markets. On the other hand, value of coefficient of variation for Afghanistan was highest (199.098%) among the given markets. Therefore export of onion to Afghanistan market was unstable during the given period.

Garlic
Garlic export share in overall vegetables production it was estimated 1.56%. The overall production 82.1 thousand tonnes and garlic export was 1.28 thousand tonnes (Table 1).

Garlic percent share in total export value and instability
The results of garlic showed that model is highly significant by means of the coefficient of 0.074. The results showed 7.48 percent increase in garlic export in quantity with the time of one year. The average annual export of garlic was 1.288 thousand tonnes in year 2001 and 2.479 thousand tonnes in year 2016. Results in Table 3 observed the minimum value of coefficient of variation as 57.67 percent for Indonesia market. So results showed that export of garlic to Indonesia market was stable among given markets and within the given period due to low production in Indonesia but from 2017 the Indonesian government enlarge garlic area, which raise the production of garlic at national level approximately 200,000 tons (Nufile et al., 2013. The government wanted to decrease garlic imports by increasing garlic farms across the country. On the other hand, value of coefficient of variation for Bahrain was highest (200.218%) among the given markets. Therefore export of garlic to Bahrain market was unstable during the given period. Production and export share of fruits were presented in Table. 4 that depicted the quantity of selected exported fruits which showed fluctuations in export quantity, kinnow export quantity have more fluctuation as compare to other commodities due to kinnow highest production in our country and export share among fruits. Kinnow export quantity was increased yearly production in '000' tonnes in Pakistan. Mango export results showed 22.08 percent share in total fruits export followed by 13.55 percent share of orange and 8.6 percent export share of dates dried in total export from Pakistan (Table 4). Fig. 3 provided time series plot for fruits export share in total export value (million rupees) and selected fruits trends presented through this graph lines which indicated orange share had a great fluctuations from 2010 to 2015 in total export value. During this period orange export value (million rupees) remained stagnant. On the other hand kinnow, mango and dried dates had increased small share in total export value.

Kinnow
Among all fruits citrus occupies the prime share in term of production in Pakistan as its contribution in overall fruits production was approximately 24.96 percent Table 4. Citrus is the most important fruit grown as it occupying approximately 47 percent of total fruits area and production in Punjab. Overall above 95 percent citrus are produced in Punjab. Overall citrus fruit production was 2496 thousand tones during 2015-16 in Pakistan. According to estimation 95 percent of the total kinnow production is produced in Pakistan (Wasim, 2011).

Kinnow percent share in total export value and instability
The results of kinnow showed that model was significant by means of the coefficient of 0.099. This showed 9.95 percent increase in kinnow export from Pakistan gradually increasing with one year. The average annual export for kinnow in year 2001 was 121.692 thousand tonnes and 294.359 in year 2016. Results presented in Table 5 observed the minimum value of coefficient of variation as 24.34 percent for Bahrein market. So results showed that export of kinnow to Bahrein market is stable among given markets and within the given period i.e. 2001-2016. Export markets for kinnow fruit are mostly by developing countries but target developed markets only 2.6 percent of kinnow exports, which is due to increasing demand in favor of seedless choice by the developed countries (GoP, 2020). On the other hand, value of coefficient of variation for Denmark was highest (130.183%) among the given markets. Therefore export of kinnow to Denmark market was unstable during the given period. Kinnow produce in Denmark was not like Pakistani kinnow having more seed due to developed country and expensive markets because it was unpleasant for the population of developed countries.

Mango
After citrus, mango was the second foremost fruit grown in Pakistan and contributed to 22.08 percent export share of total fruits production (GoP, 2016).
Multan and Bahawalpur Divisions are major mango growing districts whereas Punjab contributes almost 75.5 percent of mango production. Hyderabad and Mirpurkhas are the main mango growing part in Sindh (GOP, 2016). Mango export was 64.111 thousand tonnes in 2015-16 (Table 4).

Mango percent share in total export value and instability
The results for mango illustrated that model was significant with the coefficient of 0.069. The average annual export of mango was 56.987 thousand tonnes in 2001 and 417.434 in 2016. So results showed that export of mango to Germany market was stable among given markets and within the given period i.e. 2001-2016. Germany market was stable for mango import from Pakistan due to its good taste. They use Pakistani mango in raw form and in different products. On the other hand, value of coefficient of variation for India was highest (173.62%) among the given markets. Therefore export of Mango to India market is unstable during the given period because they produce their own mango. Likewise, Wasim et al. (2011) analyzed trend growth and variability of fruit crops. They investigated that evolution in area and production is accountable for low instability/variability in fruits.

Orange
Orange production contributed to 606.0 thousand tonnes and 13.55 percent export share of total fruits production in year 2016 (Table 4).

Orange percent share in total export value and instability
The results of orange showed that model was significant with the coefficient of 0.235. This confirms 11.71 percent increase in orange export with the time increase of one year. The average annual export for orange was 36.76 thousand tonnes in year 2001 and 155.936 thousand tonnes export in year 2016. Results in Table 6 observed the minimum value of coefficient of variation as 106.93 percent for Saudi Arabia market. So results showed that export of orange to Saudi   Arabia market was stable among given markets and within the given period i.e. 2001-2016. There were no production of orange in Saudi Arabia so regular importer of orange from Pakistan. On the other hand, value of coefficient of variation for Bahrain was highest (155.587%) among the given markets. Therefore export of orange to Bahrain market was unstable during the given period. Pirasteh et al. (2009) ascribed export diversification and specialty as key factors for export growth and stability.

Dates
Dates production was 155.8 thousand tonnes in 2015-16 in Pakistan and 114.500 thousand tonnes were exported to other countries (GoP 2016). Date export presented 8.60 percent export share of total fruits production in year 2016 (Table 4).

Dates percent share in total export value and instability
The results for instability analysis for dates showed  Ali and Jabbar (2015) has also been used. The results of the study showed that growth in production of selected fruits linger positive with area under fruit as a main contributor, compared three periods using same variability method during 1975 to 2012 period.

CONCLUSION
The study findings clearly indicated the positive growth of export quantity of all selected fruits and vegetables during 2001-2016. Export of the selected fruits and vegetables witnessed positive growth per annum. This study only focuses on the compound annual growth rates of production, export quantity and value of mostly exported fruits and vegetables. The results shows production of onion was 1671 thousand tonnes and exported 103.75 thousand tones to other countries. These results showed 6.20 percent share of export in onions production in Pakistan. Similarly, garlic, tomato and potato production (82.1, 570.6 and 4160.1) thousand tones, exports quantity of these vegetables to other countries (1.28, 25.54 and 417.43) and percent share of export are (1.56, 4.47 and 10.034), respectively. Quantity of selected exported vegetables which showed fluctuations in export quantity, potato export quantity have more fluctuation as compare to other commodities. Selected exported vegetables (Potato, tomato, onion and garlic) indicated stability results for Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Qatar and Indonesia among given markets and within the given period i.e. 2001-2016. Among fruits kinnow exports share 24.96, mango export results showed 22.08 percent share in total fruits export followed by 13.55 percent share of orange and 8.6 percent export share of dates dried in total export from Pakistan. Results observed for stability of exports to countries minimum value of coefficient of variation as 24.34 percent for Bahrein market for kinnow export and Bahrein market was stable among given markets and within the given period i.e. 2001-2016. Similarly, mango results showed that export of mango to Germany market was stable among given markets and within the given period. Export of orange to Saudi Arabia market and export of dates to Bangledesh market was stable among given markets and within the given period. The obtained results in this study lead to important implications that seems to be pertinent for policy formulation.

RECOMMENDATIONS
Share of exportable should be amplified in the total export as the demand for the previous is either stagnant or declining in the domestic market. Furthermore, there is extra need to investigate new areas of relative benefit and amplify the diversity of exports. Secondly, though the market distribution of exports has been sharply adjusted by Pakistan, there is at a standstill space to explore new fast growing markets. Thirdly, policy makers should sustain and get better the economic surroundings of the country by additional moving open economy and stability to build Pakistan's export further competitive in the world market. Fourthly, Government must to take proposals for developing the infrastructure related to particular container necessary for consumable goods and packaging requirements. Finally, in order to lessen instability, it is suggested that Pakistan should be found novel areas of mutual co-operation and try to boost up bilateral trade and economic growth for receiving full advantage which is still far from its accessible prospective. Thus this will raise the prices of these commodities and increase further economic value to Pakistan's exportables.