Scenarios of Business Development in the Agricultural Machinery Market Under Conditions of International Trade Integration

The purpose of the article is to identify and analyze scenarios of business development in the agricultural machinery market under conditions of international trade integration using the case of present-day Russia and to determine the need for state support for domestic production. As a methodological provision, we use the scenario analysis method adapted by the authors for the determination and analysis of possible scenarios of business development in the agricultural machinery market under conditions of international trade integration. From the research results, the authors conclude that the Russian agricultural machinery market develops dynamically under the influence of multiple favorable factors and positive tendencies, which include a population’s income growth, increases in crop areas of farm crops, and state agricultural machinery modernization programs, among other. In view of recent events in the currency market, Russian manufacturers of agricultural machinery are presented with better opportunities to export their products. The performed analysis of features of the Russian agricultural machinery market under conditions of international trade integration shows that increased demand and market prices are probable and that this could lead to enterprise income growth. From our scenario analysis of business development in the agricultural machinery market under conditions of international trade integration, we identify the absence of an urgent need for state interference in market processes in the Russian market for agricultural machinery in the next five years.


Introduction
As a result, consumers can choose from a large variety of products and manufacturers of agricultural machinery can start to compete with one another for sales even more, leading to a reduction in general market prices and in buyer power growth.
Countries focused not only on meeting national demand but also on the preservation of national production face serious problems related to the reduction of competitiveness between domestic manufacturers, which cannot compete with global companies that have accumulated substantial financial and human resources and that employ superior technologies and equipment.
An inevitable result of a country's integration into the global economy pertains to the dilemma between consumer and manufacturer interests.
Countries that prioritize consumers' interests risk becoming less productive and face problems related to economic security.
Countries that prioritize manufacturers' interests must interfere with market processes and expend public welfare in supporting domestic manufacturers.
There is a risk of creating conditions that are too favor- This allows one to first identify the need for such interference and to second identify the most central avenues of regulation needed to achieve maximum effects with minimal expenditures.
Consequently, the examination of perspectives of business development in the agricultural machinery market under conditions of international trade integration is feasible.
The purpose of the article is to identify and analyze scenarios of business development in the agricultural machinery market under conditions of international trade integration using the example of present-day Russia and to outline the need for state support for domestic production.
Integration processes in the current global economy Our analysis of existing scientific works in this research area shows that these works examine specific aspects of the specified problem, leaving the necessity to conduct complex research on business development scenarios in agricultural machinery markets under conditions of international trade integration to address existing gaps and to formulate a comprehensive and objective understanding of future business activities in agricultural machinery markets.

Method
As a methodological provision, the scenario analysis approach adapted by the authors is applied to iden-

Situation Scenario (S) Probability of scenario (P)
Market price fluctuations S

Financial results, RUB million (FR)
Most probable scenario S price P price (max) Least likely scenario S price P price (min) P 5 V 5 P 5 * P price (min)* V 5 * P demand (min) S demand P demand (min)     itable. In turn, Russian agricultural machines present price advantages, and despite their lower quality and weaker branding relative to foreign rivals, they are of interest to foreign customers, allowing Russian agricultural machinery manufacturers to compete successfully in foreign markets (Vinogradova, Kulyaminа, Koroleva, & Larionova, 2015).
A focus on exports will likely ensure the preservation of Russian agricultural machinery production even with a loss of positioning in the domestic market.
However, when planning state strategies for the support of national production, it is not expedient to rely on the moods of players in financial markets alone,      Table 3.

Conclusion
Our research results show that the Russian agricul- show that there will be no urgent need for state interference in Russian agricultural machinery market processes in the next five years, as according to our forecasts, this market will likely witness increased demand and market prices to 2020, which should result in significant profits.
Under such conditions, spending assets of state budgets to elicit additional support for national production is not effective. However, for the realization of the least probable scenarios, which assume