Potential Diversified Transportation Energy Mix Solutions for the ASEAN Countries

The objective of this study is to investigate potential diversified transportation energy source solutions and their effective use up to 2030 in order to establish sustainable energy use in road transportation. Five Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries (Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Vietnam) are examined by considering their economy, energy status, and automotive market scale. In this study, existing energy policies, fuel supply, demand status, petroleum and alternative fuel products, such as natural gas and biofuels, and oil refining/biofuels production capacity are investigated as components of energy mixing. If there are gaps between oil reduction targets and Business as Usual (BAU) consumption, or the required amount of biofuel use to achieve introduction target and possible supply, measures such as improved new vehicle fuel economy, adjustment of biofuel utilization, and natural gas utilization are considered to minimize gaps or to meet policy targets. An appropriate and cost-effective combination of measures is proposed as an alternative case for each country’s needs. Results show that biofuel utilization is one of the measures that is crucial in meeting policy targets. Even in the alternative case, however, estimated demand volume of biofuel exceeds domestic supply volume in some countries, while estimated demand volume of biofuel is lower than domestic supply volume in other countries. In order to solve these gaps and cultivate bio-fuel security within the ASEAN region, a concept of multi-national cooperation of biofuel is proposed. Creating policies to diminish barriers that prevent the trade of biofuels between neighboring countries is the key to success.


INTRODUCTION
Due to population increases and economic growth in the ASEAN countries, there have been rapid increases in traffic volume that result in the increase of transportation energy (IEA, 2009).To meet the increasing transportation energy demand, dependency on import oil has increased, resulting in the trade balance deficit in the ASEAN countries.Each government is trying to conserve oil by implementing energy policies to promote use of alternative fuels, such as biofuels and compressed natural gas (CNG), or to reduce oil consumption by implementing regulations meant to improve the fuel economy of vehicles.
Although each country has been planning and implementing energy policies to mitigate energy issues, gaps between oil reduction target volume and realistic reduction volume or introduction target of fuels and possible fuel supply are foreseen (ERIA, 2017).In this study, measures for mitigating energy issues in the road transportation sector and reasonable policy targets are investigated.Five countries in the ASEAN (Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Vietnam) are examined by considering their economy, energy status, and automotive market scale.This study is conducted based on the energy mix model of fit-for-purpose application to the road transportation sector in each country that was co-developed by Mizuho Information and Research Institute and Toyota Motor Corporation under the ERIA Renewable Energy Project, which is a three-year (FY 2015(FY -2017) ) project supported by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan.This project aims at promoting renewable energy utilization, mainly that of biofuel, in the ASEAN.Project members consist of the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) and researchers from Japan/the ASEAN countries.
This paper is organized as follows: In Section 2, the methodology by which we investigate energy mix solutions is described.In Section 3, the results of each country are outlined, and possible measures to mitigate energy issues are summarized.In Section 4, measures for appropriate and effective biofuels are discussed.A summary is presented in Section 5.

METHODOLOGY 1 Energy Mix Model
In order to estimate energy consumption in the road transportation sector, the ASIF type models for five countries were developed based on the Sustainable Mobility Project (SMP) spreadsheet model by the International Energy Agency (IEA) (IEA, 2004).The ASIF type model estimates energy consumption levels via multiplications of "Activity (i.e., travel distance)," "Structure (mode structure)," "Intensity (fuel economy)," and "Fuel type." Fig. 1 shows the calculation flow of energy consumption in the developed energy mix model.Each country's socio-economic data including GDP, population, and transportation data (including vehicle number, travel distance, and fuel efficiency) were collected with the support of the ASEAN researchers under the ERIA Renewable Energy Project and through publications and information available to the public (such as CAA ( 2012)).
One of the crucial parameters in the energy mix model is future vehicle number.In this study, future vehicle number is estimated via the estimated ownership rate, which is a function of GDP and population.

2 Analysis Step and Scenarios
We took the following steps to analyze the given scenarios: 1) Estimate BAU energy consumption from 2015 to 2030.In this step, energy policies regarding energy con- servation and alternative energy introduction are not considered, but possible blend rates of biofuels are considered under the current production status-BAU case.
2) Assume that blend rate/number of biofuels are fully achieved according to energy policies; also assume plausible biofuel introductions (if necessary) in addition to the BAU case-Biofuel case.
3) Assume that reduction targets of oil/energy consumption are fully achieved in addition to the BAU case-Reduction case.
4) Investigate measures to minimize gaps between the BAU/Reduction case and policy targets (when gaps exist) by considering supply ability of domestic resources, oil refining/biofuels production capacity, and cost effectiveness (only fuel costs are evaluated) for mitigating energy issues-Alternative case.
Table 1 lists the energy policies considered in the analysis.

1. 1 Biofuel Case
Fig. 2 shows the total energy consumption of the BAU and biofuel cases.The total energy consumption in 2030 is twice compared to that in 2015.Fig. 3 and Fig. 4 show the gasoline/diesel consumption levels and ethanol/biodiesel consumption levels of both cases, respectively.The diesel consumption is more than twice compared to that of gasoline in 2015.The imbalance between gasoline and diesel is one of the energy issues in Thailand   that affects healthy operation of oil refineries.The biofuel case in which the "Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP) 2015-2036" target in 2030 (E20B10) is fully achieved, the imbalance between gasoline and diesel consumption increases from the BAU case.
As much as 10 Mtoe of ethanol is required in 2030 for the biofuel case.The government's effort to increase raw materials production for ethanol is on-going.The projection of current biodiesel production ability shows that sufficient production capacity is expected if raw material supply is secured (see ERIA (2017) or Table 2).

1. 2 Reduction Case
The "Energy Efficiency Plan (EEP) 2015-2036" requires that energy consumption in the transport sector is reduced to 32 Mtoe in 2030.To meet this target, 17.9 Mtoe of energy consumption has to be reduced compared to the BAU case of this study (Fig. 5).The introduction of biofuels (E20B10) planned in AEDP can replace 1.9 Mtoe of oil consumption.Moreover, promotion of additional CNG utilization (assume that 10%-the current CNG utilization share-of total road energy consumption is replaced by CNG) can replace 2.8 Mtoe of oil consumption.Reduction of oil consumption by fuel economy improvement of new vehicles (assume 2% every year improvement as reasonable level) are assumed and can replace 3.2 Mtoe of oil consumption.The remaining part of the required reduction amount is considered to be achieved by improving the efficiency of the traffic system such as road infrastructure development and traffic flow management, including electric toll collection (ETC), vehicle information, and communication system (VICS).Fig. 6 shows the contributions to the reduction target by each measure.

1. 3 Alternative Case
As discussed in 3.1.1,one of the energy issues in Thailand is the imbalance between gasoline and diesel consumption (diesel> >gasoline).Here, an alternative case is proposed in which lower ethanol blending (E15) and same level of biodiesel utilization (B10) are assumed to relieve the imbalance.The level of CNG utilization is the same as in the reduction case.Also, the same level of FE improvement is adopted.Fig. 7 shows the contributions   to the reduction target by each measure.

1. 4 Summary
Based on the investigation, energy issues and possible measures are summarized below: • Import dependency of oil and gas has been increasing.• Imbalance between diesel and gasoline consumption (diesel> >gasoline) is an issue and reduction of diesel should be prioritized.• Securing a high level of biodiesel production is required with enough feedstock to reduce diesel consumption.Promotion of hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) will be necessary.• An integrated approach of measures such as efficiency improvement of traffic system and traffic flow management is required to meet the oil reduction target.• A new funding system to support more biofuel utilization is required since the current status of relying on the OIL FUND system will not be sustainable.Current energy policies are also evaluated, and the results are summarized below.
• Excess introduction of ethanol under AEDP deteriorates the balance between gasoline and diesel consumption levels since the diesel consumption is far greater than that of gasoline.Biodiesel utilization should be prioritized.

2. 1 Biofuel Case
Fig. 8 shows the total energy consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases.The total energy consumption in 2030 is more than twice compared to that in 2015.Fig. 9 and Fig. 10 show the levels of gasoline/diesel consumption and ethanol/biodiesel consumption of both cases, respectively.The level of gasoline consumption is more than twice compared to that of diesel in 2015.The imbalance between gasoline and diesel is one of the energy issues in Indonesia.The biofuel case in which the "Ministry of Energy andMineral Resources Regulation No. 20, 2014" target in 2030 (E20B30) is fully achieved results in the imbalance between gasoline and diesel consumption being the same level of the BAU case.Domestic refining capacity is below demand and Indonesia relies on petroleum products import today (ERIA, 2017).
Currently, ethanol is not used in Indonesia.According to the biofuel blending mandate of "Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No.20, 2014," biodiesel as well as ethanol are planned to be used.Required   volume of ethanol is larger than that of biodiesel when the biofuel blending mandate is fully achieved in 2030 for the biofuel case.Ethanol as well as biodiesel introductions are necessary to mitigate the energy issue in the road transport sector, but securing enough ethanol to fulfil the blending mandate domestically will be difficult; the government needs to make concrete plans for ethanol utilization (see ERIA (2017) or Table 2).

2. 2 Reduction Case
The "National Energy Policy (KEN)" requires the reduction of energy consumption in the transport sector by 40.8 Mtoe in 2030 compared to the BAU case in this study (Fig. 11).Biofuels and CNG introduction planned in "General Planning of National Energy (RUEN)" can replace 6.6 Mtoe and 8.4 Mtoe of oil consumption, respectively.Moreover, reduction of oil consumption by fuel economy improvement of new vehicles (assume 2% every year improvement as reasonable level) are considered and which can replace 13.4 Mtoe of oil consumption.The remaining part of the required reduction amount is considered to be achieved by improving the efficiency of the traffic system such as road infrastructure development and traffic flow management such as ETC and VICS.Fig. 12 shows the contributions to the reduction target by each measure.Blue deficit: possibility to be covered by the country's own effort first, Red deficit: can be fulfilled by means of regional cooperation through trading of biofuels

2. 3 Alternative Case
The imbalance between gasoline and diesel consumption is one of the primary energy issues in Indonesia as discussed in 3.2.1.Introduction of ethanol blending for gasoline with the use of biodiesel is a key way to mitigate the issue.Here, an alternative case is proposed in which ethanol of E10 and lowered usage of biodiesel (B15) are assumed to relieve the imbalance.CNG utilization amount is also reduced since the amount of CNG planned in RUEN may be too high and set to be the same as current CNG utilization level in Thailand (i.e.10% of current total road energy consumption).Otherwise, the same levels of FE improvement of new vehicles are adopted as discussed in 3.2.2.Fig. 13 shows the contributions to the reduction target by each measure.

2. 4 Summary
Based on this investigation, energy issues and possible measures are summarized below: • Import dependency of oil and gas has been increasing.Lack of domestic refining capacity compared to demand exists.• Imbalance between gasoline and diesel consumption (gasoline> >diesel) is an issue and reduction of gasoline should be prioritized.• Electric motorcycle is one of the effective measures to reduce gasoline consumption since large part of gasoline is consumed by motorcycle.• Utilization of domestic gas for public transportation, including taxis, and fixed route logistic trucks are additional effective measures.• The introduction of ethanol by securing its production/supply is required to reduce gasoline consumption.The promotion of HVO will be necessary.• An integrated approach of measures, such as efficiency improvement of traffic system and traffic flow management, is required to meet the oil reduction target.• Development of a funding system to support ethanol is necessary by encouraging cellulosic ethanol; the promotion of HVO in addition to fatty acid methyl esters (FAME) is necessary as well.Current energy policies are also evaluated, and the results are summarized below.
• The level of gasoline consumption is higher than that of diesel; thus, reduction of gasoline consumption should be prioritized.In accordance with KEN/ RUEN direction, utilization of gas in the transportation sector and introduction of ethanol for gasoline blend together with biodiesel are the key issues.Institutional design and fiscal support for them must be considered.

1 Biofuel Case
Fig. 14 shows the total energy consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases.Here, increased use of biofuels and energy conservation are ready considered.The total energy consumption level in 2030 is twice the level in 2015.Fig. 15 and Fig. 16 show the gasoline/diesel consumption levels and ethanol/biodiesel consumption levels of both cases, respectively.The diesel fuel consumption level is lower than twice compared to that of gasoline in 2030, which is acceptable.Domestic refining capacity is below demand and the Philippines rely on petroleum products import -the same situation as Indonesia.
Currently, ethanol-blended gasoline of E10 is introduced nationwide by partially using imported ethanol since domestic production capacity is not sufficient.In the biofuel case (E20B20), the required amount of biodiesel will be larger than that of ethanol in 2030.Achievement of the target in "National Biofuels Program (NBP) 2013-2030" will be difficult since raw material in the Philippines is limited (see ERIA (2017) or Table 2).The government needs to take make concrete plans for biofuel introduction.

2 Reduction Case
The Low Carbon Scenario (LCS) in the "Philippines Energy Plan (PEP)" requires that oil consumption in the transport sector should be as low as 6 Mtoe in 2030.To meet this target, 12.2 Mtoe of oil consumption has to be reduced compared to the BAU case of this study (Fig. 17).Biofuels (E20B20) and CNG/LPG/EV introduction planned in PEP can replace 2.6 Mtoe and 2.9 Mtoe of oil consumption, respectively.Moreover, reduction of oil consumption by the improvement of new vehicles' fuel economy (assume 2% every year improvement as reasonable level) are assumed and which can replace 1.4 Mtoe of oil consumption.The remaining part of the required reduction amount is considered to be achieved by improving the efficiency of the traffic system and traf-  fic flow management.Fig. 18 shows the contributions to the reduction target by each measure.

3 Alternative Case
As discussed in 3.3.1, the diesel fuel consumption level is lower than twice compared to that of gasoline in 2030, which is acceptable.On the other hand, securing an amount of biodiesel that is sufficient to meet the PEP target may be difficult since raw material production in the Philippines is limited.Taking this into account, an alternative case is proposed in which biofuel introduction of E10 B10-half of the NBP target (E20B20)-are assumed to maintain similar level of current gasoline/diesel consumption ratio.CNG utilization amount is kept the same as in the Reduction case.Also, same levels of FE improvement of new vehicles are adopted.Fig. 19.shows the contributions to the reduction target by each measure.

4 Summary
Based on this investigation, energy issues and possible measures are summarized below: • Import dependency of oil has been increasing.Lack of domestic refining capacity compared to demand exists.• An imbalance between diesel and gasoline consumption levels (diesel>gasoline) exists and reduction of diesel should be prioritized.• In order to promote the production of biodiesel, expanding feedstock beyond coconuts is necessary.Additionally, the implementation of HVO and FAME is necessary.• Gas usage might be limited to the public transporta-tion with minimum investment for CNG infrastructure.
• An integrated approach of measures such as improving the efficiency of the traffic system and traffic flow management is required to meet the oil reduction target.• The development of a system to support more biofuel implementation including trading and importing raw materials or products is required.Current energy policies are also evaluated, and the results are summarized below.
• As far as the current PEP is concerned, introducing biofuels will be difficult since raw material production is limited.

4. 1 Biofuel Case
Fig. 20 shows the total energy consumption levels of   the BAU and biofuel cases.The total energy consumption level in 2030 is double that in 2015.Fig. 21 and Fig. 22 show the gasoline/diesel consumption levels and ethanol/biodiesel consumption levels of both cases, respectively.The gasoline consumption level is more than double that of diesel in 2015.The imbalance between gasoline and diesel is one of the primary energy issues in Malaysia.The imbalance between gasoline and diesel consumption is greater in 2030 than in 2015.Domestic refining capacity is about to meet demand of diesel but Malaysia relies on gasoline import (from Singapore) (ERIA, 2017).Currently, ethanol is not used in Malaysia.According to the "11th Malaysian Plan (2016-2020)," only biodiesel (B15) is promoted and utilization of ethanol is not considered.However, if only biodiesel is promoted and its blending ratio for diesel increases, then the imbalance between gasoline and diesel consumption will become worse in the future.Here, ethanol utilization (E10) is also assumed in the biofuel case; its required amount in 2030 is larger than that of biodiesel.The introduction of ethanol and biodiesel is necessary to mitigate energy issues in the road transport sector, but securing enough ethanol to fulfil blending requirements domestically will be difficult; the government must make concrete plans for ethanol utilization (see ERIA (2017) or Table 2).Otherwise, the projection of biodiesel production shows the capability to meet the government biofuel plan.

4. 2 Reduction Case
Since there is no specific reduction target of oil reduction by the government, tentative oil reduction target is set to be 35% -equal to the CO 2 reduction commitment of COP21, Paris agreement -compared to BAU (The Government of Malaysia, 2016) is assumed.To meet this target, 13.1 Mtoe of oil consumption has to be reduced compared to the BAU case of this study (Fig. 23).
The introduction of biofuels (E0B15) as planned in the "11th Malaysian Plan (2016-2020)" and CNG utilization (5% of current total road energy consumption)   can replace 0.6 Mtoe and 1.0 Mtoe of oil consumption, respectively.Moreover, reduction of oil consumption by improving the fuel economy of new vehicles (assume 2% every year improvement as reasonable level) are considered, which can replace 2.8 Mtoe of oil consumption.The remaining part of the required reduction amount is considered to be achieved by improving the efficiency of traffic systems such as road infrastructure development and traffic flow management, including ETC and VICS.Fig. 24 shows the contributions to the reduction target by each measure.

4. 3 Alternative Case
As discussed in 3.4.1,one of the primary energy issues in Malaysia is the imbalance between gasoline and diesel consumption (diesel< <gasoline).The introduction of ethanol-blended gasoline and biodiesel is key in mitigating this issue.Taking this into account, an alternative case is proposed in which ethanol blending (E5) and lowered biodiesel usage (B10) are assumed to relieve the imbalance.The CNG utilization amount is the same as in the BAU case.Also, the same levels of new vehicles' FE improvement and traffic system efficiency improvement are adopted.Fig. 25 shows the contributions to the reduction target by each measure.

4. 4 Summary
Based on this investigation, energy issues and possible measures are summarized below: • Import dependency of oil has been increasing.
• The imbalance between gasoline and diesel consumption (gasoline> > diesel) is an issue and the reduction of gasoline should be prioritized.• The domestic supply of biodiesel is sufficient.Implementation of HVO in addition to FAMNE is necessary.• Increased use of domestic gas for the public transportation, including taxis, is required.• Securing feedstock for ethanol is required; the development of cellulosic ethanol is an option to reduce gasoline consumption.• An integrated approach of measures such as improving the efficiency of traffic systems and traffic flow management is required to meet the oil reduction target.• The development of a funding system that promotes ethanol utilization is required.Current energy policies are also evaluated, and the results are summarized below: • Promotion of Energy Efficient Vehicle (EEV) by setting clear oil reduction target and efficiency improvement of traffic system is required to conserve energy.Ethanol introduction besides biodiesel must be considered since an imbalance between gasoline and diesel fuel consumption exists.However, lack of domestic ethanol production is an issue.It is necessary to expand use of domestic gas as alternative fuel.

5. 1 Biofuel Case
Fig. 26 shows the total energy consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases.The total energy consumption level in 2030 is three times higher than that in 2015.Fig. 27 and Fig. 28 show gasoline/diesel consumption levels and ethanol/biodiesel consumption levels of both cases, respectively.The gasoline and diesel consumption levels are rather balanced.However, gasoline consumption is expected to be dominant in the future due to increasing number of motorcycles.Domestic refining capacity is below demand as there is only one refinery today and relies on the import of petroleum products as well (ERIA, 2017).
Ethanol-blended gasoline of E5 is introduced in some cities.The implementation timing is slightly behind the "Biofuel Roadmap" schedule since domestic ethanol production capacity is not sufficient (ERIA, 2017).Currently, biodiesel is not used in Vietnam.Securing biodiesel production will be difficult due to the lack of raw material.However, both of ethanol and biodiesel use (E10B5) is assumed in the biofuel case with slower implementation timing compared to "Biofuel Roadmap." Achievement of biofuel introduction target will be rather difficult since raw material production is limited, especially biodiesel (see ERIA (2017) or Table 2).The government must make concrete plans to increase domestic biofuel production.

5. 2 Reduction Case
Since there is no specific reduction target of oil reduction set by the government, the tentative oil reduction target is set to be 20%-equal to CO 2 reduction commitment of COP21, Paris agreement-compared to BAU (The Government of Viet Nam, 2016) is assumed.To meet this target, 7.1 Mtoe of oil consumption has to be reduced compared to the BAU case of this study (Fig. 29).The introduction of biofuels (E10B5) as planned in "Biofuel Roadmap" and CNG utilization (1% of current total road energy consumption) can replace 1.8 Mtoe and 0.1 Mtoe of oil consumption, respectively.Moreover, reduction of oil consumption by improving the fuel economy of new vehicles (assume 2% every year improvement as reasonable level) are considered, which can replace 3.9 Mtoe of oil consumption.The remaining part of the required reduction amount is considered to be achieved by improving the efficiency of the traffic system, such as road infrastructure development, and traffic flow management, such as ETC and VICS.Fig. 30 shows the contributions to the reduction target by each measure.

5. 3 Alternative Case
As discussed in 3.5.1,gasoline and diesel consumption levels are rather balanced in Vietnam.On the other hand, as far as biofuels are concerned, insufficient biofuels feedstock supply ability is one of the concerns and the implementation timing of ethanol is slightly behind the "Biofuel Roadmap" schedule.Taking these into account, an alternative case is proposed in which less ethanol blending (E5) and the same level of biodiesel utilization in the reduction case (B5) are assumed.The level of CNG utilization has been increased by considering domestically produced natural gas resources in Vietnam and set to be 5% of current total road energy consumption.The same levels of new vehicles' FE improvement and traffic system efficiency improvement are assumed.Fig. 31 shows the contributions to the reduction target by each measure.

5. 4 Summary
Based on this investigation, energy issues and possible measures are summarized below: • Import dependency of oil has been increasing.There is a lack of domestic refining capacity compared to demand.• Gasoline and diesel consumption levels are balanced.
Gasoline consumption will increase due to an increasing number of motorcycles in the future.• Utilization of domestic gas for public transportation, including taxis, is required.• The introduction of ethanol and biodiesel introductions are required to reduce petroleum dependency.
Securing feedstock or products especially for biodiesel is key to meeting the standards of the "Biofuel Roadmap."Production of ethanol (from cassava) might have a possibility to increase.• The development of a system that supports biofuel   implementation fiscally and with regards to trade (import raw material or products) is required.
• Integrated approach of measures such as improving the efficiency of traffic systems and traffic flow management is required to meet the oil reduction target.Current energy policies are also evaluated, and the results are summarized below: • Clear oil reduction target and incentive schemes for more fuel-efficient vehicles, along with Energy Efficiency Labelling, are required to conserve energy.Concrete plans for the introduction of biofuel introduction with measures to increase domestic raw materials production is required.Import of biodiesel is necessary since domestic production is quite difficult.

MEASURES OF ASEAN
4. 1 Compositions of Fuel Type Fig. 32 shows the compositions of fuel type for road transportation in five countries.In Indonesia and Malaysia, gasoline consumption is higher than that of diesel, while in Thailand and the Philippines, diesel consumption is higher than that of gasoline.In Vietnam, both are rather balanced.
In order to maintain healthy operation of oil refineries, any imbalance between gasoline and diesel consumption should be as small as possible (ratio between them should be less than 2).In order to establish balanced consumption levels of gasoline and diesel with biofuel blending, the ideal relationship between petroleum product demand and biofuel supply ability is schematically illustrated in Fig. 33 with the usage of FAOSTAT data on biofuel supplies by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).Multi-national cooperation among ASEAN countries is worth considering for the establishment of balanced biofuel supply and demand (biofuel security) in ASEAN, along with appro- priate targets of biofuel utilization in each country.

2 Proposal of Biofuels Balancing Concept in ASEAN
Required amounts of ethanol/biodiesel for the BAU and alternative cases in each country in 2030 are summarized in Table 2.Estimated domestic supply ability or potential of ethanol/biodiesel in each country up to 2030-investigated by ASEAN researchers from each country member under the ERIA biofuel project (ERIA, 2017)-is also summarized in Table 2.If the estimated supply volume of ethanol/biodiesel exceeds demand in a country, the country has a potential for export ethanol/ biodiesel.If the estimated supply volume of ethanol/biodiesel is less than demand in a country, the country does not have a potential to meet demand by itself and needs to import ethanol/biodiesel.These factors are summarized in Table 2.
Table 2 shows that deficits of ethanol supply are observed in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam and deficits of biodiesel supply are observed in the Philippines and Vietnam.However, Vietnam has a large potential of cassava production and only a part of that is currently used for ethanol production (ERIA, 2017).Thus, Vietnam can be expected to solve the deficit of ethanol through domestic efforts by increasing either raw materials or biofuels production.
Thailand and the Philippines have excess ethanol while Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand have excess biodiesel.Excess ethanol supply in Thailand or the Philippines can be exported to Malaysia or Indonesia (and also to Vietnam) to fulfil their demand.Excess biodiesel supply in Indonesia can be exported to the Philippines or Vietnam.
Taking this analysis into account, there are definitive expected possibilities of supplementing biofuels within ASEAN countries.This would be one form of biofuel security within ASEAN countries.Multi-national cooperation in the export/import of biofuels between ASEAN countries would meet the policy requirements in each country.However, there is the remaining issue of insufficient total ethanol production volume in the ASEAN region as a whole to support the significant demand in Indonesia that cannot be fully supplemented by ASEAN countries.Additional ethanol is requested to be imported from outside of ASEAN (e.g. from Brazil or USA).This biofuel security concept is referred to as the "Biofuel Balancing Concept in the ASEAN" and illustrated in Fig. 34.

3 Necessary Measures
In order to realize the biofuel security concept through multi-national cooperation in practice, introduction of measures to overcome barriers that prevent trading of biofuels between the countries is the key to success.Examples of necessary measures are as follows: • Harmonization of biofuels quality standards among the ASEAN countries • Refusal to specify feedstock for biofuel production as only domestic resources (e.g.coconuts for biodiesel production in the Philippines); performance-based and feedstock-neutral specifications are required.These are measures that make it easier to trade and distribute biofuels from the supply side.Activities to promote the use of high-quality fuels and harmonize fuel standards have already been conducted by automotive industries under the collaboration among the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers in USA, the Engine Manufacturers Association (EMA) in USA, and the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association ( JAMA) to ensure proper engines and vehicles operation and thus to benefit consumers.The "Worldwide Fuel Charter Ethanol Guidelines" (WWFC, 2009a) and "Biodiesel Guidelines" (WWFC, 2009b)  The recommendations to the governments of ASEAN countries are as follows: • to consider opinions of all the related stakeholders, especially the requirements and proposals initiated by the automotive industry, is key to assuring the acceptance of biofuels utilization among vehicle and fuels users; • to discuss these issues and solutions among all the related stakeholders in each country to adjust opinions on how to realize biofuel security within the ASEAN region.These are measures that increase and secure the demands for biofuels.The main concerns of such stakeholders as the automotive industry, companies, and private users are how to secure and maintain the functions of vehicles when they utilize biofuels.In order for private users to widely utilize biofuels, those that can be utilized in the same manner as gasoline and diesel are required, so that consumers will not need to modify their existing vehicles.Those biofuels use a blend ratio of suppressed low or middle levels (the automotive industry recommends E10 to E20 for ethanol and B7 to B10 for diesel, keeping the current market in mind).A large and stable supply of such biofuels in the market is required so that private users can utilize them.On the other hand, some companies, such as those involved with public transportation or freight, have utilized high-blend ratios of biofuels on a voluntary basis alongside special treatment, maintenance, and management of fleets (e.g.B20 for public transportation by the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority (BMTA)).In addition to the introduction of energy policies, support for these kinds of voluntary activities is also recommended to the government of ASEAN countries.The governments of ASEAN countries must develop practical methods for both the demand side and the supply side in order to widely promote the usage of biofuels.
The Philippines currently imports ethanol from Brazil and USA, and even from Thailand in some cases (USDA, 2017).This scenario may present us with opportunities to learn about how they manage to import ethanol from outside of the country to fulfil the demand when deficit of domestic production exists, with priority for using domestically produced ethanol.
Fig. 34 shows the possibilities of supplementing biofuels between countries within ASEAN region.Sufficient production of biodiesel is expected and can be fully supplemented within ASEAN region.Insufficient production volume of ethanol is expected due to significant demand in Indonesia and cannot be fully supplemented within the ASEAN region.Additional use of biodiesel and the enhancement of ethanol production in the ASEAN region are crucial.The recommendation to the governments of ASEAN countries are as follows: • to produce next generation biofuels such as cellulosic ethanol and HVO in ASEAN region; • to introduce mechanisms (e.g.financial support) that promote biofuels.

SUMMARY
Existing energy policies and issues regarding gasoline/ diesel fuel supply and demand status of the road transportation, including alternative fuels (CNG and biofuels), were studied for five countries in ASEAN.At first, measures for mitigating energy issues in each country by achieving policy targets were discussed with priority.Moreover, concerns and limitations in several possible solutions to the energy issues within each country have also been delineated.In order to minimize concerns and limitations, we also proposed appropriate combinations of oil reduction measures as the alternative case for each country.Biofuel utilization is found to be one of the measures that is most crucial in meeting policy targets.The estimated demand volume of biofuel exceeds domestic supply volume in some countries, while the estimated demand volume of biofuel is less than domestic supply volume in other countries.In order to solve these gaps and cultivate biofuel security within the ASEAN region, a multi-national cooperation of biofuels supply may fulfil the significant demand, not accounting for ethanol of Indonesia.The introduction of measures that diminish barriers to prevent trading of biofuels between the countries are the key to success.

Fig. 1 .
Fig. 1.Calculation flow in the energy mix model.

Indonesia•
National Energy Policy (KEN) (The Government of Indonesia, 2014): Transport sector is expected to consume 68% of total oil consumption in 2030 (consume 72 Mtoe in the transport sector).• Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 20/2014 (Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, 2014): Mandatory of biofuel content E20 and B30 by 2030.• General Planning of National Energy (RUEN) (The Government of Indonesia, 2017): Aiming total biodiesel usage of 5.73 million kL in 2025, introduction of 2 million units of CNG vehicles aiming natural gas utilization of 289 mmscfd until 2025.The Philippines • Philippines Energy Plan (PEP 2012-2030) (Department of Energy, 2013a): Road transportation accounts for ca.75-80% of total transportation Energy consumption in 2030 and use of alternative fuels are promoted.• National Biofuels Program (NBP) 2013-2030 (Department of Energy, 2013b): Introduction of ethanol and biodiesel up to E20 and B20 respectively until 2025.Malaysia • National Automotive Policy 2014 (NAP 2014) (Minister of Trade and Industry, 2014): Promotion of energy efficient & advanced technology vehicle.• 11 th Malaysian Plan (2016-2020) (Prime Minister s Department, 2015): Encouragement of energy (oil) reduction by introducing Energy Efficient Vehicle (EEV) and promoting use of biodiesel (B15) and CNG in the transport sector.Vietnam • Law on Economical and Efficient Use of Energy, 50/2010/QH12 (National Assembly, 2010): Promotion of better fuel economy vehicles by introducing Energy Efficiency Labeling scheme.• Biofuel Roadmap (The Prime Minister of Government, 2012): Introduction of ethanol (E5 as of 2015 and up to E10 as of 2017) and biodiesel (B5 as of 2015).

Fig. 2 .
Fig. 2. Total energy consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Thailand.

Fig. 4 .
Fig. 4. Ethanol/biodiesel consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Thailand.

Fig. 3 .
Fig. 3. Gasoline/diesel consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Thailand.

Fig. 6 .
Fig. 6.Contributions by each measure to the reduction case in Thailand.

Fig. 8 .
Fig. 8.Total energy consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Indonesia.

Fig. 7 .
Fig. 7. Contributions by each measure to the alternative case in Thailand.

Fig. 10 .
Fig. 10.Ethanol/biodiesel consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Indonesia.

Fig. 9 .
Fig. 9. Gasoline/diesel consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Indonesia.

Fig. 16 .
Fig. 16.Ethanol/biodiesel consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in the Philippines.

Fig. 15 .
Fig. 15.Gasoline/diesel consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in the Philippines.

Fig. 17 .
Fig. 17.Reduction target of oil consumption in the Philippines.

Fig. 18 .
Fig. 18.Contributions by each measure to the reduction case in the Philippines.

Fig. 19 .
Fig. 19.Contributions by each measure for the alternative case in the Philippines.

Fig. 20 .
Fig. 20.Total energy consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Malaysia.

Fig. 22 .
Fig. 22. Ethanol/biodiesel consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Malaysia.

Fig. 21 .
Fig. 21.Gasoline/diesel consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Malaysia.

Fig. 24 .Fig. 25 .
Fig. 24.Contributions by each measure to the reduction case in Malaysia.

Fig. 26 .
Fig. 26.Total energy consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Vietnam.

Fig. 28 .
Fig. 28.Ethanol/biodiesel consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Vietnam.

Fig. 27 .
Fig. 27.Gasoline/diesel consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Vietnam.

Fig. 29 .
Fig. 29.Reduction target of oil consumption levels in Vietnam.

Fig. 30 .
Fig. 30.Contributions by each measure to the reduction case in Vietnam.

Fig. 31 .
Fig. 31.Contributions by each measure to the alternative case in Vietnam.

Fig. 32 .Fig. 33 .
Fig. 32.Compositions of fuel type for transportation energy in five analyzed countries by 2015.
are two of the examples proposed by the automotive industry as recommendations; other examples include the "EAS-ERIA Biodiesel Fuel Standard: 2008" proposed by ERIA Energy Project WG through its activity as benchmarking standard for biodiesel (FAME) in ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA 2010).

Fig. 34 .
Fig. 34.Proposal of biofuel supplementation scheme in the ASEAN region, "Biofuel Balancing Concept in the ASEAN" in 2030.

Table 1 .
Energy policies of five examined countries.