A Regional Forecasting Tool to Estimate the Horizontal Mismatch Between VET Supply and Labour Market Demand 2022 - 2030

Context: The demand for workers in the labour market is changing, and due to that there is, therefore, a particular need to develop systems for forecasting labour demand. To this end, Cedefop has developed a tool that provides comprehensive estimates of labour market trends up to 2030 in all EU Member States. However, this tool has two improvement areas. Firstly, its estimates are not directly linked to the system of skills provision, including initial Vocational Education and Training (IVET), and, secondly, the results are not at the regional level, which offers a particularly appropriate scenario for analysing the dynamics generated between human capital and development.

Approach: the main contribution of the article is the development of a new methodology, based on Cedefop’s Spanish estimates, for estimating the degree of horizontal mismatch between the of the number of graduates with IVET studies by fields of knowledge per Spanish region and the number of job opportunities by economic sector (NACE code letter) between 2022 and 2030.

Findings: The horizontal mismatch in the construction sector is very pronounced. This is also the case for agriculture and fishing, and manufacturing. The services sector is balanced.

Conclusion: Technical occupations will continue to be relevant in the current and future labour market, although these occupations will likely undergo intrinsic changes. One of these changes should be directed towards the supply of the labour market with people trained in different fields of knowledge.