Projections of East Rongbuk Glacier, Mt. Everest

We apply a three-dimensional (3D) thermomechanically coupled higher-order ice flow model to simulate the East Rongbuk Glacier (ERG), Mt. Qomolangma (Everest). We first diagnostically investigate its present-day ice dynamic features in 2009 and then prognostically simulate the glacier during the time period 2010--2100. The ice flow model is initialized based on a Robin-type inversion method. We find that ERG is likely to experience maximum meltwater runoff before 2030 under the SSP-126 scenario, while under SSP-370 and -585 scenarios, the peak water will likely occur around 2050, and last a longer period of time. We also find that ice dynamics may become more critical as climate warms in time.