ZERO IN ON: A new generation of climate models, COVID-19 and the Paris Agreement

The annual ZERO IN reports by the CONSTRAIN project provide information on scientific topics that are crucial to the Paris Agreement, including background and context on new developments at the science-policy interface.

This includes new insights into the complex processes represented in climate models and what they mean for temperature change and other climate impacts over the coming decades.

These advances in climate modelling are particularly relevant when it comes to the heart of the Paris Agreement: the Long-Term Temperature Goal (LTTG), put in place to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. The LTTG calls for limiting warming “to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”

The latest generation of climate models (CMIP6) is improving our understanding of where global temperatures are heading, and when we might pass the 1.5 or 2˚C thresholds, as well as how we could avoid doing so. However, the model results require careful interpretation.

We also need to understand how temperature change is measured in the context of the LTTG, to both assess how global temperatures have changed to date, and to use the models effectively in making decisions that affect our climate future. This is particularly important given the economic and societal choices the world faces in the light of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This year’s ZERO IN report therefore focuses on the new CMIP6 climate models and the science behind the LTTG, highlighting how improved understanding in both areas can help us to better plan for what lies ahead, and how we can increase our chances of avoiding dangerous climate change whilst creating a more resilient future for all.