Economic development, environmental disturbances, and crime: The case of Puerto Rico

This study uses annual data from 1961-2018 to fit multiple negative binomial regression models to explore the effects of socioeconomic characteristics and environmental disturbances on different types of crime in Puerto Rico. The study also distinguishes between economic development and economic growth, addressing how each has impacted crime on the island. The results suggest that increases in the unemployment rate, the percentage of males aged 15-34, population density, temperature and hurricanes increase crime in Puerto Rico. The results also show that the Gross National Product per capita and economic development, measured through the Human Development Index, have an inverse relationship to crime. We conclude that environmental disturbances can affect criminal activities, and that focusing on economic development and poverty reduction may be a better approach to understand and reduce criminal activities relative to a narrow focus on economic growth or increasing funds for the police department.