Designing pathways towards sustainable tourism in Soka Tourism Bali: A MULTIPOL policy analysis

Sustainable tourism is known as an effort to prevent the negative impacts of tourism development by considering economic, social and environmental aspects. Sustainable tourism development is very important to be used as a reference in managing tourism destinations. The large tourism potential in the Bali Province has been inventoried by the Provincial Government of Bali by establishing a tourism area. However, in its development, several designated tourism areas cannot develop optimally and tend to experience a decrease in the quality and quantity of tourist visits. This paper presents transformation pathways toward sustainable tourism development in tourism areas. The general objective is to determine strategies that can be pursued in the development of tourism areas. The specific objective is to develop the best policies and scenarios in the development of tourism areas. This research was conducted in the Soka Tourism Area in Bali Province, Indonesia, which is the only strategic tourism area in Tabanan Regency, which has great potential but has not been able to develop optimally. The data obtained from the focus group discussion, as a data collection method will be analyzed using the MULTIPOL method. The results of the research show that the development of sustainable tourism areas can be carried out by preparing a clear and measurable framework. Promotion, preparation of cross-sector programs and tourism management training activities are needed as priority programs. On the policy, it is necessary to carry out effective planning as an optimal policy involving all stakeholders. In addition, the “Progressive Transformation” and “Integrated Transformation” scenarios can be considered to achieve sustainable tourism development. This study can be an important input for stakeholders in determining policies for the development of tourism areas in the research locations and can be applied in other areas that have similar characteristics.


Introduction
The shift in the paradigm of tourism development from mass tourism to new global tourism, which prioritizes adaptability, segmentation, and diagonal coherence, necessitates the development of tourism that supports economic activity while preserving natural and cultural resources (Sulistyadi et al., 2017).Tourism as an agent for achieving sustainable development (Lipman et al., 2013) led to the development of the concept of sustainable tourism (Fennell & Cooper, 2020).The fundamental concept of sustainable tourism development is that it focuses on two things: first, sustainability as an economic activity, and second, a policy geared towards long-term and intergenerational goals (Cernat & Gourdon, 2001;Higgins-Desbiolles, 2018;Mihalič, 2014).All kinds of tourism management and development that uphold social, economic, and environmental integrity and guarantee the preservation of natural and cultural resources are included in the definition of sustainable tourism (Hall, 2019).Sustainable tourism development has a wide range of effects on the economic, sociocultural, and environmental aspects of life.The definition of sustainable tourism is a tourism development concept that is considerate of tourism's supporting factors.In other words, sustainable tourism development can be achieved by striking a balance between the environment, economy, and society (Cernat & Gourdon, 2001;Sulistyadi et al., 2017).The development of sustainable tourism should be used as a benchmark for the management of tourism destinations, particularly in Indonesia, due to the increasing competition for destinations at the global and national levels, as well as the wide variation and inequality in the development of tourism destinations in the country (Damanik & Teguh, 2012).Effective tourism planning will significantly contribute to efforts to reduce the negative impacts of tourism on the environment (Cerda, 2020;Cohen, 1978;Dyah Pramanik et al., 2018;Sudipa et al., 2020;Zhao & Min Li, 2018) and society (Paul, 2012;Pramanik, 2019;Pramanik & Ingkadijaya, 2018;Suranto et al., 2020).
Regarding the tourism industry in Indonesia, the focus on Bali is an intriguing topic for research.As one of the provinces that has the potential for tourism destinations with a stable level of visits, the Province of Bali has an important role in the development of sustainable tourism in Indonesia.Tourism in Bali is a potential source of foreign currency for Indonesia (Antara & Sumarniasih, 2017).As a source of regional income, the development of this sector is so promising due to the increasing number of tourist visits.Through the Regional Regulations of the Province of Bali, twenty tourism areas have been established across all of Bali's regencies since 1993.Certain regions are experiencing development, while others are not.Soka Tourism Area in Tabanan Regency is one of the undeveloped areas.Considering that Law No. 10 of 2009 concerning Tourism states that Tourism Areas are developed to improve the welfare of people, this condition is a singular occurrence.
According to the Bali Provincial Spatial Plan, the Soka Tourism Area is comprised of 7 (seven) villages and is divided into 4 (four) sub-districts, including Lalanglinggah Village in Selemadeg Barat District, Antap Village and Berembeng Village in Selemadeg District, Beraban Village and Tegal Mengkeb Village in Selemadeg Timur District, and Kelating Village and Tibubiu Village in Kerambitan District.The black sand beach and vast stretches of rice fields that are continuously cultivated with rice give the Soka Tourism Area in general its singularity.In addition, when considered in terms of its cultural singularity, it is a region with tourist spots that are easily accessible, as well as visitor-supporting amenities including lodging, dining, an internet network, electricity, and water.Given that tourism has developed into a dynamic social and economic that affects many nations and communities (Eser et al., 2013;Hwang & Stewart, 2017;Pramanik & Ingkadijaya, 2018), the tourism component is an excellent capital in the development of sustainable tourism.The low level of visitor traffic, however, indicates that this area has not really grown to its full potential.
It is difficult to develop tourism regions because it requires intricate administrative structures, coordinated efforts, and policies.Depending on the situation and the demands, policies or appropriate measures may be required in a number of scenarios.The growth of environmentally friendly tourism in the Soka Tourism Area is a crucial strategic move the government of Tabanan Regency may make.
The overarching goal of this project is to create a plan for sustainable tourism by creating transformational pathways for achieving sustainable tourism in the Soka Tourism Area.Three research questions will be used to separate this goal into its three subgoals.

RQ
: What strategies can be employed to develop the Soka tourism area?RQ : What policies may be put in place to encourage the growth of sustainable tourism?RQ : What are the greatest and most promising scenarios for the growth of sustainable tourism?
The findings of this study aid in the establishment of policies and a number of scenarios for scientific thought that can be used as solutions to promote the shift towards the growth of sustainable tourism zones.This is crucial because improper planning and lack of stakeholder involvement lead to the establishment of an unsustainable tourism industry.More focus is placed on technical characteristics as a contributing factor due to the tendency for overlapping tourism strategies and planning (Ariyani & Fauzi, 2022).

Literature Review
Development, as a planned and gradual process, aims to improve the welfare of the community.Cultural, social, political, and economic facets of human life will undoubtedly come into contact frequently with the development process (Putra, 2018).In practice, however, development tends to disregard the preservation of natural resources and the environment, resulting in frequent pollution and environmental damage (Isbandi, 2005).Therefore, sustainable development must be pursued as an effort to construct a world based on the principles of sustainability and equality in the social, economic, and environmental spheres (Griggs et al., 2013).
This concept is used to develop tourism, which is currently facing unprecedented challenges due to the sector's maturity and the environment's rapid transformation (Qiu et al., 2019).This condition underpins tourism, which is said to be a driver of rapid economic growth by creating jobs and stimulating the growth of other productive sectors (Sulistyadi et al., 2017).
Aligning the concept of tourism development being implemented requires synergistic collaboration between stakeholders.Tourism is a complex system of a number of stakeholders and is frequently characterised by disputes arising from the shared use of resources and divergent perspectives on how the industry should be developed and managed (Nunkoo & Ramkissoon, 2016).
It is no secret that there can be tensions in the tourism industry when different groups try to achieve goals that are incompatible (Cheuk & Liew-Tsonis, 2010;Hemmati, 2002).Stakeholders from different backgrounds should be able to put aside their differences and work towards a common goal of fostering tourism growth.Everyone involved has the potential to become a tourism development agent that benefits everyone involved (Wearing & Mc Donald, 2010).Due to a lack of planning, a lack of direction in development strategies, and poor coordination amongst stakeholders, the development process is slow and almost unsustainable (Ariyani & Fauzi, 2022;Higgins-Desbiolles, 2018).
The increasing number of stakeholders involved, and the often conflicting interests they have, makes sustainable tourism as an alternative destination development approach that can build a harmonious relationship between tourism and the surrounding environment (environmental, economic, political, and social) is more difficult to implement (Qiu et al., 2019).Sustainable tourism is defined in terms of its impacts on the environment, economy, and society, as well as the preservation of cultural artefacts and natural habitats (Hall, 2019;Kişi, 2019).
The findings of Qiu et al. (2019), a study conducted in Hong Kong with the participation of 12 stakeholders and 1839 residents, demonstrated the economic impact of the development of the tourism sector, namely the improvement and welfare of the community.Similarly, the findings of a literature review (León-Gómez et al., 2021) that analysed 5949 published articles demonstrating the economic impact of tourism development on economic expansion.
Tourism's influence on the social sector cannot be discounted.In general, social and cultural sustainability is evidenced by social justice, respect for human dignity, and the improvement of everyone's life (Pandey, 2017).The findings of research conducted in Jatiluwih Village, Tabanan (Krismawintari & Utama, 2019) show that tourism can be promoted to benefit the local community as well as to protect nature so that the environment remains sustainable, healthy culture by enhancing the existing culture in rural communities, and using the principles of tourist satisfaction.
Similarly, research involving 221 tourists in Malaysia (Rasoolimanesh & Jaafar, 2017) determined that the sustainability strategy aims to enhance the quality of life of the community while preserving the environment and other local assets for future generations.The potential of a region can be an opportunity for the development of the tourism industry, which can increase the benefits of the existing but undeveloped potential (Sulistyadi et al., 2017).This condition is consistent with the explanation (Romão, 2019) that the purpose of developing tourism potential is to create mutually beneficial long-term interactions between enhancing community welfare, environmental sustainability, and visitor satisfaction, as well as favoring the integration and cohesion of community development in the surrounding area.Tourism development is essential for the economic growth of a country that can balance the three pillars of sustainability.This evolution necessitates programs, policies, and scenarios that integrate social and economic objectives and the premise for state intervention in economic matters (Black, 2001).Lack of attractiveness, demand, local resiliency, climate change, and political restrictions impede the development of tourist areas (Paunović & Jovanović, 2017).
This research employs a prospective methodology, which has not been widely used in the development of tourism areas that include multiple villages with distinct potentials.This Tourism Area development plan was formulated with input from government, private sector, and community stakeholders or actors.Therefore, this is the first study utilizing the prospective method to develop an already existing but undeveloped tourism area.

Methods
This study was intended to develop the Soka Tourism Area, Tabanan Regency in the future and serve as the foundation for additional research.Tabanan regency located in the southern part of Bali Island.Tabanan regency has many famous tourist destinations with high visit rates such as Tanah Lot Temple, Lake Beratan, and Jatiluwih rice terrace.

Fig. 1. Map of The Soka Tourism Area
The Soka Tourism Area is the only tourism area in Tabanan regency which is located in seven villages.The Soka Tourism Area has beautiful black sands beaches and rice fields but this tourism area does not develop optimally and evenly in seven villages.This study intends to propose strategic plans for the growth of tourism regions in Indonesia using the Soka Tourism Area as an example to achieve sustainable development across the region.A multi-criteria and policy prospective analysis technique (MULTIPOL) will be employed to attain these objectives.This technique identifies and assesses numerous actions, criteria, and policies that can be used in scenarios in order to create systematic improvements in decision-making in an efficient tourism village development system.MULTIPOL is a multi-criteria evaluation method for comparing scenarios to various policies and actions in order to establish the framework of appropriate policies, action alternatives, and project scenarios (Martelo Gómez. et al., 2020;Panagiotopoulou & Stratigea, 2014).Using Focus Group Discussion (FGD) and workshop techniques, data was gathered in a participatory manner.This FGD has twenty members, including representatives of the local government at the district, subdistrict, and village levels, representatives of the surrounding community, and private-sector tourism actors.The expert group was assembled so that each stakeholder's opinion could be presented with equal weight.MULTIPOL combines two types of evaluation for its two types of evaluation (Fauzi, 2019): 1. Evaluation based on "Action to Policy" (e.g. program against policy).This evaluation determines the appropriate program for each policy in order to produce a hierarchy of program (action) effects on the policy.2. Evaluation in accordance with "Policies to Scenario."This evaluation determines which policies are suitable for particular scenarios in order to produce a hierarchy of policies and their respective effects for each scenario.
The MULTIPOL technique is composed of four components: criteria, scenarios, policies, and actions.
1.The evaluation criteria describe the essential elements for determining the quantitative success of an action.The evaluation criteria in this case act as the cornerstone for assessing the effectiveness of alternative scenarios, programs, and policy initiatives based on the evaluation process.The criteria established for this study are listed in Table 1. 3. Strategies for achieving aims with relevance to the political, social, economic, and physical environment are described by policies.In this context, "tourism policy" refers to the rules that govern the long-term growth of tourism and the day-to-day operations of a tourist destination, including both the collective and individual decision frameworks that make the former possible.Table 3 displays the study's proposed alternatives to the current policy.

Management agency
The Soka tourism area will be developed with the help of the government and the local community, and this will be facilitated by a management body in the form of an institution.

Legal protection
Assemble a robust body of law, including regional regulations, regent regulations, and regional head decrees, to safeguard all types of tourism in the Soka Tourism Area.

Mapping
Each village in the Soka Tourism Area's potential for tourism is mapped out and explored.

Promotion
Using tourism advertising or marketing to get people to come to the Tourism Area.
In addition, the MULTIPOL method uses stages to assess the efficacy of interventions, policies, and alternative scenarios.
The process generates tables and graphs that display the compatibility and success likelihood of the policies and scenarios, as well as the programmes and policies that make up each scenario.

Evaluation of Action on Policy
Research findings are then applied to policy recommendations through additional analysis.The MULTIPOL study returns scores, an average score, and a standard deviation for each policy.The average score measures the overall heterogeneity of each action (or program) towards the policy, while the standard deviation indicates the sensitivity of each action towards the policy (Stratigea, 2013).In general, the highest mean value and lowest standard deviation indicate the best performance.
The position of the action in the hierarchy will indicate the combination of these two indicators.Table 5 presents program evaluation related to policy proposal research.The highest scores were obtained for promotional activities, cross-sector programs, and training, as shown in Table 5.The position of the action within the hierarchy indicates the mean and standard deviation.Promotion, programs, and training were the top three programs.Promotion is a better program for sustainable tourism in the Soka Tourism Area.In order to maintain the implementation of the action, a cross-sectoral program must be prepared in order to make the regional development program viable.As an alternative, action training is crucial for preparing quality human resources.These three measures align with other research findings on sustainable tourist development (Andersson & Getz, 2009;Antara & Sumarniasih, 2017;Ariyani & Fauzi, 2022;Connell et al., 2009) Fig. 2 shows the output of MULTIPOL features, which is the profile map linking the score for each program (activity) to the policy, as a consequence of the evaluation of programs and policies.According to the efficiency of the program's implementation, the probability of program success is depicted in Figure 2, also known as a sensitivity classification map.According to the findings of the analysis, as shown in Figure2, promotion is the best action on policy intensification, capacity building, institution and regulation.Meanwhile, the program is the best action in planning and infrastructure consolidation policies.Fig. 4 presents the map of proximity or closeness between program (action) and policies (policy).Fig. 4 shows that legal protection and mapping programs are appropriate programs for regulation and institutional policies.Masterplan and cross section programs are the most appropriate programs for infrastructure consolidation and planning policies.Meanwhile, promotion, management agency, training, partnership and facilities are programs that are the most compatible with capacity building and potential intensification policies.

Policy Evaluation of Scenarios
Policy evaluations in light of the research-proposed scenarios are the next step analysed in MULTIPOL.Table 6 presents the comparison of evaluation scores across policies and scenarios.Effective planning is the best policy, while institutional policy is the least effective.The effective planning is tourism development policies to develop The Soka Tourism Area by planning comprehensively, on time and on target.This policy should be implemented by the government in collaboration with all stakeholders to accelerate the development of the Soka Tourism Area.The results in Table 6 shows that effective planning and infrastructure consolidation are the best policies in the Progressive Transformation (PT) and Integrated Transformation (IT) scenarios.Meanwhile, institution and intensification are the best policies in the Evolution Transformation (ET).Status Quo (SQ) scenarios, Institution and regulation are the best policies.The behavior of the policy-scenario relationship is shown in Fig. 5.The data indicates that strategic planning is the most effective policy.Strategically planning the most effective courses of action for two possible futures, the Integrated Transformation (IT) and the Progressive Transformation (PT) scenario.If we compare the Evolution Transformation (ET) scenario with the Status Quo (SQ) scenario, we see that institutional policies are superior in both cases.Based on the behavior of the link between policies and scenarios, Fig. 6 illustrates the policies with the highest probability of success and the greatest effectiveness.The outcome demonstrates that planning is the most efficient policy, while regulation has the highest likelihood of success.In Fig. 7 the following scenario and policy closeness map, it can be seen that the planning, consolidation infrastructure and regulation are effective policies for the Progressive Transformation (PT) and Integrated Transformation (IT) scenarios.Meanwhile, intensification, strengthening human resource capacity, and institutions policies are the best policies in the Status Quo (SQ) and Evolution Transformation (ET).

Soka Tourism Area Policy Framework for Sustainable Development
According to findings from an in-depth examination of the study's criteria, procedures, policies, and hypothetical situations, potential policy maps that can be achieved with the right actions for specific policies and scenarios can be presented as the overall results of the MULTIPOL analysis.Several possible courses of action (strategies) consistent with the policy are shown in Fig. 8.
As previously explained, the planning, infrastructure consolidation and regulation policies are the best for the Progressive Transformation (PT) and Integrated Transformation (IT) scenario in the Soka Tourism area to accelerate development of tourism.The policy will be effective if it is supported by promotion, cross-sectoral program, master plan, and training.Institution, capacity building and intensification are the best for the Status Quo (SQ) and Evolution Transformation (ET) scenario in Soka Tourism area.That policy will be effective if it is supported by promotion, cross-sectoral program, and training to accelerate development of tourism in Soka Tourism Area.

Conslussion
It is crucial that all parties involved in the tourism industry work together to develop the Soka Tourism Area, which is now the only tourist destination in Bali's Tabanan Regency.By developing this area, local income can be generated, community income can rise, conflicts can be reduced, infrastructure can be built, community competency can rise, conservation activities can rise, and cultural preservation can rise.Sustainable tourist development is the best strategy and the most practical.Promotion, cross-sectoral programs, and training are the three main strategies used to carry out sustainable tourism development activities in the Soka Tourism Area.This action must be carried out in conjunction with an effective planning policy known as the best policy.An effective planning policy is the most effective policy involving all stakeholders by setting clear targets and goals to develop the Soka Tourism Area.The Progressive Transformative (PT) scenario's execution must be sped up with the cooperation of all stakeholders, utilizing all available tourism resources.The tourism, agricultural, and trade sectors can work together to accomplish the Integrated Transformation (IT) scenario.Under the current circumstances, Tabanan Regency contributes more significantly to the creation of the GRDP in the two sectors of tourism and agriculture.The tourism sector contributed 16 percent and agriculture contributed 24 percent of the Tabanan regency GDRP (BPS-Statistics, 2022).It means that the development of tourism could be integrated with the agriculture sector.As a result, efforts can be made to combine tourism and agriculture, specifically with regard to eco-friendly tourism.This crosssectoral synergy is consistent with the idea of sustainable tourism, or the development of the tourism industry that considers social and environmental factors in addition to economic ones.Therefore, an integrated transformation (IT) strategy combined with a thorough and efficient planning strategy is the ideal setting for the growth of the Soka Tourism Area.The findings of this study undoubtedly offer valuable advice for the growth of tourist destinations for all parties involved.Synergies amongst all tourist stakeholders are necessary for an integrated framework.The Soka Tourism Area will be developed with the cooperation of the public, private, and local communities.Each stakeholder must therefore increase their ability to contribute the resources required to enhance tourism workers, community development, and infrastructure, facilities, and services.The development of sustainable tourism necessitates a precise and quantifiable methodology.Because they will be impacted by other actions and policies, neither policies nor actions can be considered in isolation.However, in order to ensure that activities for sustainable tourist growth may be realized, multiple scenarios and multiple regulations must be adopted concurrently.

Fig. 2 .
Fig. 2. Program Profile Map Fig. 3. Program sensitivity classification map Source : Multipol Analysis Output Promotion, program, and training, as indicated in Fig. 3, have the best likelihood of success and the most fulfillment of sustainable development policies, with promotion programs being the most effective program.This outcome supports the previous analysis's conclusions, which identified promotion as the key factor in the sustainability of the tourism industry in the Soka Tourism Area.

Fig. 4 .
Fig. 4. Map of the program's closeness to policy Source : Multipol Analysis Output

Fig. 7 .
Fig. 7. Map of Policy adherence to scenarios Source : Multipol Analysis Output

Fig. 8 .
Fig. 8. Potential pathways between actions, policies and scenarios of the Soka Tourism Area

Table 1
Criteria for Sustainable Tourism Development in The Soka Tourism Area Scenarios offer a clear illustration of a future in which aims and objectives are achieved.In this case, scenarios are strategies for ensuring the Soka Tourism Area's development is successful.Four alternative scenarios were identified based on the FGD results, as shown in Table2..

Table 3
Alternative policies to support sustainable tourism development in The Soka Tourism Area Action is a sequence of things that can be accomplished and interventions that could be made to help with policy implementation.Table4details the nine different plans for the Soka Tourism Area's future.Alternative programs to support sustainable tourism development in The Soka Tourism Area

Table 5
Evaluation Action and Tourism Development Policy in the Soka Tourism Area

Table 6
Policy Evaluation of Soka Tourism Area Development Scenarios