The relationship between economic growth and e-commerce at the beginning of covid-19 pandemic in east Java

The purpose of this study is to analyse the simultaneous spatial relationship between economic growth and e-commerce as well as the spillover effect between the two variables in East Java at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. To answer the research objectives, spatial simultaneous modeling is used with the Spatial Autoregressive Generalized Spatial Three Model. Stage Least Square (SAR-GS3SLS) using rook contiguity. Based on the results of the SAR-GS3SLS, it can be concluded that at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 in East Java, economic growth and e-commerce were simultaneously spatially interconnected. Variables that affect East Java's economic growth are e-commerce activities, the number of villages that have Base Transceiver Stations (BTS) and the spatial lag of economic growth ( ρ (cid:2869) ) while the open unemployment rate (TPT) and the Gini ratio have no significant effect on growth. economy. Variables that affect e-commerce are economic growth, internet banking users, percentage of population who have cellphones, number of millennials, number of villages that have ATMs and spatial lag of e-commerce ( ρ (cid:2870) ) while the number of villages with 4G/LTE signals has no effect on e-commerce. commerce. Regencies/cities that provide the highest spillover of economic growth and e-commerce in East Java are Malang, Mojokerto and Madiun Regencies. The three districts were able to provide a positive net spillover. . by the authors; licensee Growing Science, Canada 32 20© Keywords : E-Commerce


Introduction
The spread of Covid-19 has changed almost all orders of life, including the system of economic activity in East Java.The impact of Covid-19 at the beginning of the pandemic in 2020 on the East Java economy was very significant.The East Java economy in the fourth quarter of 2019 was 5.52 percent, contracted in the first quarter of 2020 to 2.92 percent, then contracted by 1.61 percent in the second quarter of 2020.The economy of East Java continued to decrease, specifically by 2.3 percent in the third quarter of 2020 and contracted by 2.39 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020.
Digital financial transactions surged at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in accordance with the widespread use of e-commerce and other digital instruments (Bank Indonesia, 2020).The widespread use of e-commerce is in line with data from the National Socio-Economic Survey (SUSENAS) East Java in 2020, the percentage of consumers and e-commerce entrepreneurs has increased.The percentage of consumers and e-commerce entrepreneurs in East Java was 13.78% in 2019 and grew to 14.70% in 2020, indicating that Covid-19 has reduced economic activity while accelerating the use of digital financial technology (Bank Indonesia, 2020).According to the results of the Pearson Correlation analysis between economic growth and e-commerce conducted in 2020 throughout all districts or cities in East Java, it can be concluded that there is a strong negative association between economic growth and e-commerce activities.When the economy contracted, the number of consumers and e-commerce entrepreneurs increased.The Endogenous Growth Theory, developed by Paul Romer, winner of the 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics, explains the phenomenon of the relationship between economic growth and technology, for instance, the use of e-commerce.Endogenous economic growth is an economic model that optimizes and prioritizes technological assets and human resources within a country as variables that affect economic growth in a country (Jones, 2019).In some countries, the economic structure is leading to a very fast level of development by utilizing technology, not least in trade, e-commerce is able to influence the acceleration of economic development in a country (Weiyue, 2017).E-commerce is a potential new engine to accelerate economic growth, especially in Asian countries (Kinda, 2019;Liu, 2013).In other conditions, the implementation of e-commerce regulations and policies in a country completely depends on the infrastructure and economic development of the country.This indicates that the number of e-commerce transactions in a nation is significantly impacted by economic growth (Kabango et al., 2015), Ho et al. (2011)).Theoretically, it follows from this explanation that in some circumstances, e-commerce activities have an impact on economic growth, while in others, the reverse is true-economic growth has an impact on e-commerce activities.This explanation shows that theoretically there is a simultaneous relationship between economic growth and e-commerce.In simultaneous modeling, the explanatory variable in one equation can be the dependent variable in another equation (Johnston & Dinardo, 1963;Gujarati, 2009;Vo et al., 2019;Kim et al., 2020).In its development, simultaneous modeling also includes spatial aspects in its modeling, so that spatial simultaneous modeling develops (Kelejian & Prucha, 2004).In the spatial aspect, if data is displayed using a thematic map, then adjacent areas have relatively the same value (Anselin, 1988;Cliff & Ord, 1981).Fig. 3 and Fig. 4 show that the East Java regions in 2020 which are close to one another will have approximately similar rates of economic and e-commerce growth.Analysis of the pattern of inter-regional relations in regional economic studies is a method to describe the problem of inter-regional Development gaps across regions/cities in a province will increase as a consequence of policies that do not take into consideration interregional links.Based on the explanation of the simultaneous phenomenon and the spatial interaction between economic growth and e-commerce, it is very interesting to examine the relationship between economic growth and e-commerce in the spatial simultaneous concept and how the spillover effect between the two variables was in East Java at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.Thus, there are two research objectives in this study: how are the spatial simultaneous relationship between economic growth and e-commerce and how are the spillover effects of these two variables, particularly in East Java at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

E-Commerce
According to Presidential Regulation Number 74 of 2017, e-commerce is an electronic-based trading system.E-commerce is a business that uses the internet to buy and sell products and services (BPS, 2019).The relationship between economic growth and E-Commerce can be seen in Table 2.

Research Framework
In previous studies, panel data regression was commonly used in the analysis of economic growth and e-commerce; nonetheless, in this study, the relationship between economic growth and e-commerce will be analyzed using a different methodology, specifically spatial simultaneous modeling with the Generalized Spatial Three-Stage Least Square (SAR-GS3SLS) Spatial Model.In addition, the spatial intersection matrix used is rook contiguity, which is a Novelty in this study.

Fig. 5. Research Framework 2.4 Hypothesis
The alternative hypotheses that are used as below: 1. E-commerce and economic growth in East Java at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 were simultaneously spatially related.2. There is the influence of e-commerce, the number of villages that have Base Transceiver Stations (BTS), the open unemployment rate, the Gini ratio, and the spatial dependence of economic growth on East Java's economic growth at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.3.There is the influence of economic growth, internet banking users, the number of villages with 4G/LTE networks, the number of millennials, the number of villages that have automatic teller machines (ATMs), and the spatial dependence of e-commerce on consumers and e-commerce businesses.

Data
The following information pertains to data and research variables: Comparison of the GRDP of a region in the actual period to the GRDP of the previous period.

BPS E-Commerce
In this study, E-commerce refers to both consumers and e-commerce businesses.

BPS E-Commerce business
Businesses that use the internet to sell goods or services.

BPS E-Commerce consumer
People who use the internet to buy goods and services.

BPS Gini Ratio
An indicator that describes the income inequality of a region.

BPS Internet banking users
Residents who use the internet to access banking and financial facilities.

BPS Millennials
Residents between the ages of 24 and 39 years.

BPS Open unemployment rate
Comparison of unemployment to the labor force.BPS ATM Electronic machines that serve bank customers to carry out various banking activities independently.

BPS Number of villages with Base Transceiver Station (BTS)
A cell phone tower/mobile phone is a device that can send and receive cellular communication signals.

BPS
Number of villages with 4G/LTE network 4G/LTE is a packet internet data network with data transfer speeds up to 100 Mbps.BPS

Residents who own cellphones
Residents who own or can use mobile phones with at least 1 active phone card for personal use.BPS Simultaneous Model (Johnston, J (1971) (Gujarati, 2009) Tobler's first law, spatial element (Anselin, 1988) Simultaneous Spatial (Kelejian & Prucha, 2004) e-commerce

Descriptive Analysis
East Java's economy contracted by 2.39 percent in 2020.Sampang Regency experienced the shallowest economic growth slowdown, which was as deep as 0.29 percent, whereas Batu City faced the steepest slowdown, which was as deep as 6.46 percent.The city of Surabaya generates an added value based on a cash price of Rp. 390.94 trillion as the provincial capital, the center of government and the economy.The City of Surabaya makes the biggest contribution with its added value.The city of Surabaya, in fact, provides the greatest added value to the East Java economy.Meanwhile, the Regency/City that produces the smallest added value in East Java in 2020 is Blitar City, which produces added value at a constant price of Rp. 4.723 trillion.Malang City has the highest percentage of consumers and e-commerce enterprises in East Java, which is approximately 28.20 percent, whilst Nganjuk Regency has the lowest rate, which is only 8.68 percent.Another variable that is assumed to influence the economic growth in East Java during the Covid-19 pandemic is the number of villages with BTS.The regency/city with the village that has the most BTS is Malang Regency with 259 BTS and the least is Mojokerto Regency, which is 3 villages.In relation to the open unemployment rate, Sidoarjo Regency in East Java has the greatest open unemployment rate in the province with a rate of 10.97 percent, while Pacitan Regency has the lowest open unemployment rate at 2.28 percent.The Gini ratio is the last factor hypothesized to affect economic growth.The regency/city with the highest Gini ratio is Malang City with a Gini ratio of 0.400, while the Regency/City with the lowest Gini ratio is Sumenep Regency with a Gini Ratio of 0.260.On the other hand, another variable that is expected to influence e-commerce in East Java during the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic is regencies/cities with a percentage of the population using internet banking.Malang City has the highest percentage of people using internet banking (14.86%), while Sampang Regency has the lowest percentage (1.72%) of people using the internet.Another variable is the number of villages with the existence of a 4G/LTE network.The most 4G/LTE networks are found in Sidoarjo Regency, which has 299 villages, and the least in Blitar City, which has 10 villages.The next variable is the percentage of millennials.Sampang Regency has the highest percentage of millennials (28.82%), while Magetan Regency has the lowest percentage of millennials (22.20%).In relation to the number of residents who have a mobile phone, Malang City has the highest percentage of people who own a mobile phone (97.25%), while Bondowoso Regency has the lowest rate (75.76%).The last variable that potentially affects e-commerce in East Java is the number of villages with ATMs.Surabaya City has the most villages with ATMs, specifically 148, and Batu City has the fewest, with 12 villages.

GS3SLS Spatial Autoregressive Simultaneous Modeling Analysis (SAR-GS3SLS) the Order Condition of Identification
The order condition examination's findings indicate that the equation is overidentified so the analysis can be conducted using a simultaneous equation approach because the results of checking the order conditions indicate that the equation is overidentified.

The Haussman Specification Test
The results of the Haussman test show that e-commerce and economic growth are interconnected simultaneously.

Parameter Estimation Results of the Economic Growth Equation
Table 8 illustrates the parameter estimates for economic growth.Based on the estimation results using the Spatial Autoregressive Generalized Spatial Three Stage Least Square (SAR-GS3SLS) model, e-commerce and the number of villages with Base Transceiver Stations (BTS) had a significant impact on East Java's economic growth at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 at α=5%, while the open unemployment rate and the Gini ratio had no significant effect on East Java's economic growth.Moreover, the spatial lag of economic growth (ρ1) significantly affects East Java's economic growth at α=10%.
At the beginning of the Covid-19 epidemic, the percentage of customers and e-commerce entrepreneurs had a positive impact on economic growth in East Java.The economy will increase by 1.4342 percent as a consequence of a 1% increase in the percentage of consumers and online business owners.E-commerce and Research & Development (R&D) significantly have a positive effect on GDP (Gross Domestic Product) (Anvari & Norouzi, 2016).In addition to the positive impact of advanced technologies like e-commerce, the application of technology has an influence on economic growth, according to Jones (2019) and Mewes & Broekel (2020).E-commerce was one of the economic enterprises that was able to survive and even increase during the Covid-19 pandemic.With e-commerce, the buying and selling of goods and services is effective, efficient, and able to reduce the possibility of being infected with Covid-19.
Another variable that affects East Java's economic growth at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 is the number of villages that have Base Transceiver Stations (BTS).BTS is a kind of telecommunications infrastructure.Network operators and communication devices can connect wirelessly by using BTS.The existence of BTS can facilitate other sectors in carrying out their activities during the Covid-19 pandemic.Online learning and education, e-commerce trading, banking industry, and e-banking operations all run more smoothly with BTS.Consequently, the BTS's presence can contribute to East Java's economic growth.The marginal change in villages that have BTS/transmitting stations by 1 percent will cause the economy to grow by 1.0212 percent.A nation's economic growth is strongly impacted by the infrastructure for information and communication technologies, including the availability of BTS.For a very long time, a nation's information and communications technology infrastructure has been a key factor in its economy (Toader et al., 2018).
The open unemployment rate and the Gini ratio had no effect on East Java's economic growth at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.This is different from Mewes and Broekel's (2020) research findings, which showed a positive relationship between unemployment and economic growth.Furthermore, during the Covid-19 pandemic, East Java's economic growth was unaffected by the Gini ratio.Contrary to what Jianu et al. (2021) found, income inequality can actually damage a nation's ability to develop its economy.However, income inequality under certain conditions can have a negative or positive effect on economic growth, depending on the state of the country concerned.
The spatial variable lag of economic growth ( ) significantly has a positive effect on economic growth with a value of ( ) = 0,3910 at α = 10%.This result implies that the economic growth in the related regencies/regencies-cities/cities will have a positive impact on economic growth in other regencies and cities.
According to the value of the coefficient of determination ( ), that is 64.72%, the variance of East Java's economic growth at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 of 64.72 percent can be explained by e-commerce, the number of villages with base transmitter stations, the unemployment rate, the Gini ratio, and inter-regional linkages for economic growth, while the remaining 35.28 percent is explained by other variables.

E-commerce Equation Parameter Estimation Results
The SAR-GS3SLS Model's estimation results reveal that the variables that significantly influence e-commerce at α = 5% are economic growth, Internet Banking users, the percentage of the population that owns a cellphone, the number of millennials, the number of villages with ATMs, and the spatial lag of e-commerce ( ), while the number of villages with 4G/LTE signals has no impact on e-commerce.E-commerce activities are impacted by economic growth.E-commerce will increase by 0.5011 percent for every percent that the economy increases.The development of e-commerce is identical to the development of technology, there are several factors that influence the development of technology, including economic growth, financial development, savings, spending on research and development, and exports of high-tech products that have a positive impact on technological development (Bayar, 2015).
Internet banking usage has a positive impact on e-commerce.Consumers or e-commerce businesses will increase by 0.2342 percent for every percent increase in internet banking utilization.The trend of using e-commerce can be utilized by fintech (financial technology) companies and internet banking service providers to provide e-commerce transaction payment convenience.Internet banking has a significant impact on e-commerce and other sustainable businesses.Collaboration between internet banking and e-commerce is very open and synergizes with each other (Soegoto et al., 2020).Internet banking service providers try to provide consumers with various funding, payment, or credit options to facilitate ecommerce transaction payments which will increase e-commerce transactions.The use of e-banking, which includes the use of internet banking, has a positive effect on consumer habits, for example in the use of e-commerce.This is caused by the fact that e-banking provides easy, convenient, and efficient services in various transactions, including e-commerce transactions (Nustini & Fadhillah, 2020).
The number of people who own a cellphone is another factor that influences e-commerce.The number of consumers and ecommerce businesses will increase by 1.328 percent for every 1 percent increase in the percentage of the population that owns a cell phone.Technological improvements, the accessibility of mobile broadband infrastructure, and the inexpensive price of smartphones will encourage the development of digital industries, including e-commerce.The ease of using a mobile phone anytime and anywhere is very strongly related to e-commerce activities in a region (Rathod, 2020).
The population, including millennials, has an impact on e-commerce as well.Every 1% increase in millennials will lead to a 1.5471% increase in consumers and e-commerce entrepreneurs.The popularity of online shopping among millennials is increasing very quickly and in many different ways.Moreover, the utilization of e-commerce is impacted by the millennial generation (Mahendra et al., 2020).The millennial generation is a creative generation that is connected to the online world and swiftly adapts to all technology-related activities, including how to perform online purchases.Millennials are very interested in online shopping, which is growing so quickly.The millennial generation's close relationship to digital technology and the prevalence of e-commerce among millennials cannot be separated (Piarna et al., 2020).
E-commerce was significantly impacted by the number of villages that had ATMs during the beginning of the Covid-19 outbreak.At the beginning of Covid-19 outbreak, despite their fear of getting infected with Covid-19, many people continued to use ATMs to perform a variety of financial activities, including e-commerce payments.E-banking usage has a positive impact on consumer behaviors, such as e-commerce utilization.An instance of e-banking is an ATM (Nustini & Fadhillah, 2020).
The number of villages with 4G/LTE networks has no effect on e-commerce.This is different from the research of Waseem et al. (2018) which says that e-commerce businesses are positively influenced by the development of information and communication technology infrastructure such as 3G and 4G signal networks.
Spatial lag variable percentage of consumers and e-commerce entrepreneurs ( ) significantly has a positive impact with a value of ( ) = 0,7038 at α = 5%.This finding indicates that the percentage of consumers and e-commerce entrepreneurs in related regencies/regencies-cities/cities has a positive impact on e-commerce in other regencies and cities.
Based on the value of the coefficient of determination ( ) on the equation of consumers and e-commerce entrepreneurs, which is 28,02%, the variance of consumers and e-commerce entrepreneurs in East Java during the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic of 28,02% can be explained by economic growth, e-banking users, the number of villages with 4G/LTE signals, the percentage of the population with mobile phones, the number of millennials, the number of villages with ATMs, and spatial lag of e-commerce ( ), while the remaining 71,98% is explained by other variables.

Simultaneous Spatial Relationship between Economic Growth and E-Commerce Enterprises
Based on the results of the previous analysis, the percentage of e-commerce affects economic growth.On the other hand, economic growth affects e-commerce.This information shows that economic growth and e-commerce are simultaneously related.Economic growth is more impacted by e-commerce than the other way around.This is demonstrated by the fact that the coefficient value of e-commerce activities on economic growth, which is 1.4342, while the coefficient value of economic growth on e-commerce is 0.5011.These coefficients also demonstrate a positive relationship between the two; a growing economy will lead to an increase in e-commerce in East Java at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, and vice versa.According to the previously described spatial lag, the economic growth spatial variable lag ( ) significantly at α = 10% has a positive effect with a value of  = 0.3910, although the e-commerce spatial variable lag ( ) significantly at α = 5% has a positive effect with a value of  = 0.7038.This result implies that the percentages of consumers and ecommerce entrepreneurs in other regencies/cities will increase as a result of economic growth and the percentages of consumers and e-commerce entrepreneurs in the related regencies/regencies-cities/cities.The effect of the spatial lag on the percentage of consumers and e-commerce entrepreneurs ( ) is greater than the spatial lag of economic growth ( ).The analysis that has been done leads to the conclusion that there is a spatially simultaneous relationship between e-commerce and economic growth.10, it can be concluded that the assumptions of normality and homoscedasticity are significant.

Spillover effect between East Java regions
In the previous discussion, it was mentioned that the spatial interactions between the regencies and cities of East Java are a result of their closeness to one another, the sides of the border that intersect between regencies/cities or between regions directly adjacent to each other, in relation to the spatial balance employed, known as rook.The Covid-19 pandemic has restricted movement from one region to another.At this point, inter-regional interactions occur because of e-commerce transactions.11, it can be concluded that the regencies and cities that contribute the most to e-commerce and economic growth in East Java are Malang, Mojokerto, and Madiun Regencies.The three districts can provide a positive net spillover.At the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, there were no fears about a backwash effect occurring in the three districts.East Java's economic growth centers that have a major contribution to the GRDP of East Java Province, such as the City of Surabaya and Pasuruan City (BPS East Java Province, 2021) have a negative net spillover.This indicates that at the beginning of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, there was a close regional disaster that caused a backwash effect in the cities of Surabaya and Pasuruan.

Local Spillover Analysis
Based on local spillover analysis, Malang Regency, for instance, has the highest net Spillover in East Java.According to Figure 7, the regencies/cities that influence and are influenced by Malang Regency are the regencies/cities closest to and directly adjacent to Malang Regency, such as Mojokerto, Kediri, Pasuruan, Jombang, Blitar, Lumajang, Batu City, and Malang City.The figure shows that Malang City, Batu City, and Lumajang Regency are the three main regencies or cities that have an impact on one another's economic growth or e-commerce in Malang Regency.

Suggestions and Recommendations
The East Java Provincial Government and Regional Governments throughout East Java must continue to support digital transformation both at the beginning and until the end of the pandemic in order to revive East Java's economic growth, which contracted at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic.This digital transformation will change the way of transacting from offline to online.The Covid-19 pandemic can be used as a momentum to accelerate digital transformation in various sectors.
The government must continue to support all the necessary infrastructure for internet banking and other digital economic activities.To ensure the expansion of the internet service network to the village level, the government must collaborate with the Ministry of Communication and Information (Kominfo), which plans to build 4,200 Base Transceiver Stations (BTS) in 2021 (annual report of the Ministry of Communication and Information (Kominfo), 2020).With the increase in facilities and infrastructure supporting e-commerce activities, it is expected that e-commerce will keep growing and will be one of the solutions to boost economic growth in East Java.
Through training activities for current or potential e-commerce business actors about selling online, the competence of human resources in the field of e-commerce in East Java can be improved.Along with this strategy, offline businesses can be encouraged to go online, and those that are already online can increase sales and reach global markets.
Researchers' findings that millennials have an impact on economic growth in the pandemic era can be utilized as a reference for e-commerce business owners when it comes to selecting the target market for their products and services.Entrepreneurs in e-commerce must understand the characteristics of millennials, the appearance of the application interface must be able to attract millennials, and the types of goods sold must be taken into consideration millennial preferences in order to achieve business targets and eventually raise the East Java economy.
The banking sector as an internet banking service provider must be able to provide internet banking applications that are easy to understand, easy to use, and certainly must be able to guarantee the security of internet banking users.

Fig. 1 .Fig. 2 .
Fig. 1.East Java Economic Growth in Quarter IV 2019 -Quarter IV 2020 Fig. 2. The Growth of E-Commerce Entrepreneurs and Consumers in East Java From 2019-2020 Source: Statistics Indonesia of East Java Province

Fig. 3 .Fig. 4 .
Fig. 3. Distribution of Economic Growth by Regency/City in East Java in 2020 Fig. 4. Distribution of E-commerce Consumers and Entrepreneurs in East Java Source: Statistics Indonesia of East Java Province development inequality.The spread (spillover) pattern can assist policymakers create development plans for certain regions.

Fig. 6 .
Fig. 6.Flow of Spillover Degrees Between Regencies/Cities in East JavaBased on Fig.6and Table11, it can be concluded that the regencies and cities that contribute the most to e-commerce and economic growth in East Java are Malang, Mojokerto, and Madiun Regencies.The three districts can provide a positive net spillover.At the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, there were no fears about a backwash effect occurring in the three districts.East Java's economic growth centers that have a major contribution to the GRDP of East Java Province, such as the City of Surabaya and Pasuruan City (BPS East Java Province, 2021) have a negative net spillover.This indicates that at the beginning of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, there was a close regional disaster that caused a backwash effect in the cities of Surabaya and Pasuruan.

Fig. 7 .
Fig. 7.The flow of spillover degrees between regencies/cities that affect and is affected by Malang Regency4.2.9 Local Spillover Analysis of Malang Regency Economic GrowthThe regencies most influenced by Malang Regency are Malang City by 0.3910 percent, Batu City by 0.1955 percent, Lumajang City by 0.1303 percent, Blitar by 0.0978 percent, Jombang and Pasuruan each by 0.0782, Kediri by 0.0652 percent, and Mojokerto by 0.0489 percent, whilst the regencies/cities that were previously influenced by Malang Regency

Table 1
The results of Pearson correlation analysis between economic growth on consumers and e-commerce entrepreneurs in East Java in 2020 Note: ** significance at α=10% Source: Data analysis result

Table 2
The relationship between economic growth and E-Commerce

Table 3
Research Variables and Data

Table 4
Research Data for Explanatory Variables

Table 5
Order Condition Check

Table 6
Order Condition Checking of The Equations Tests for Spatial Dependence P-values in the Robust Lagrange Multiplier Spatial Lag and Robust Lagrange Multiplier Spatial Error results are less than α = 5%, indicating that the lag or error has a spatial dependence.Spatial autoregressive (SAR) was utilized in this study.Based on the LMLag (Robust) dan Lmerror (Robust) tests result, this study will use simultaneous spatial modeling with the Spatial Autoregressive Generalized Spatial Three-Stage Least Square (SAR-GS3SLS) model using rook contiguity.

Table 7
Tests for Spatial Dependence

Table 8
Parameter Estimation Results of the Economic Growth Equation ModelThe simultaneous model of SAR-GS3SLS economic growth in East Java at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 is:

Table 9
Estimation Result of E-Commerce Consumer and Entrepreneur Equation ModelSimultaneous models of SAR-GS3SLS e-commerce in East Java at the beginning of the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic is:

Table 11
Regency/City Spillover in East Java + 1,0212 Villages With BTS + 0,3503 Open Unemployment Rate − 02008 Gini Ratio Lumajang City by 0.2346 percent, Blitar by 0.1760 percent, Jombang and Pasuruan by 0.1408 each, Kediri by 0.1173 percent, and Mojokerto by 0.0880 percent, while the regencies/cities previously influenced by Malang Regency were .=0.0880 percent respectively.The equation of e-commerce in Malang Regency is as follows: