Authors:
Yanming Sun
1
;
Hongkai Dang
2
;
Shaohui Huang
1
;
Yunma Yang
1
;
Junfang Yang
1
;
Suli Xing
1
and
Liangliang Jia
1
Affiliations:
1
Institute of Agro-Resources and Environment, Hebei Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Shijiazhuang, 050051, China
;
2
Institute of Dry land Farming, Hebei Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Hengshui, 053000, China
Keyword(s):
Summer Maize, Yield Potential, Hybrid-Maize model, Climate Change, Global Warming.
Abstract:
Studies on the impacts of climate change on crop yield are of great importance for ensuring food security. This study evaluated the impacts of climate change on summer maize yield potential for 1970 to 2019 for the low plain area of Hebei Province using a Hybrid Maize model applied to daily meteorological data. The effects of solar radiation, temperature, and precipitation on potential changes to maize grain yield were evaluated. Two climate scenarios were set to assess the relative contributions solar radiation and temperature changes on maize yield. The results showed a decline in maize yield potential of 7.5% from 14.6 t/hm 2 in the 1970s to 13.5 t/hm 2 in the 2010s, whereas solar radiation decreased by 6.6% from 2,007 MJ / m 2 to 1,874 MJ / m 2. There was an increasing trend in average temperature, with rates of 0.21 ℃/10a and 0.44 ℃/10a before and after maize silking, respectively, which resulted in shortening of the pre-silking and post-silking growth periods by 0.61 days/10a a
nd 1.89 days/10a, respectively. The results showed no effect of rainfall on yield potential, whereas solar radiation and temperature showed significant positive correlations with yield potential. Scenario analysis showed that climate warming was responsible for 80.3% of the decrease in yield potential, far exceeding the contribution of solar radiation of 17.1% during the same period. The results of this study suggest that climate change may have a serious impact on crop yield potential in the low plains of Hebei Province.
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