EGU24-1671, updated on 08 Mar 2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1671
EGU General Assembly 2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Monthly Arctic sea ice prediction based on a data-driven deep learning model 

Xiaohe Huan1, Jielong Wang2, and Zhongfang Liu1
Xiaohe Huan et al.
  • 1State Key Laboratory of Marine Geology, Tongji University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
  • 2College of Surveying and Mapping and Geographic Information, Tongji Univesity, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China

There is growing interest in sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice due to its potential effects on midlatitude weather and climate extremes. Current prediction systems are largely dependent on physics-based climate models. While climate models can provide good forecasts for Arctic sea ice at different timescales, they are susceptible to initial states and high computational costs. Here we present a purely data-driven deep learning model, UNet-F/M, to predict monthly sea ice concentration (SIC) one month ahead. We train the model using monthly satellite-observed SIC for the melting and freezing seasons, respectively. Results show that UNet-F/M has a good predictive skill of Arctic SIC at monthly time scales, generally outperforming several recently proposed deep learning models, particularly for September sea-ice minimum. Our study offers a perspective on sub-seasonal prediction of future Arctic sea ice and may have implications for forecasting weather and climate in northern midlatitudes.

How to cite: Huan, X., Wang, J., and Liu, Z.: Monthly Arctic sea ice prediction based on a data-driven deep learning model , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1671, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1671, 2024.