EGU24-12200, updated on 09 Mar 2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12200
EGU General Assembly 2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Data-driven approaches to infer transit time distributions from high-resolution tracer data

Paolo Benettin1, Quentin Duchemin2, Maria Grazia Zanoni3, Andrea Rinaldo4, and James Kirchner3
Paolo Benettin et al.
  • 1Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland (paolo.benettin@unil.ch)
  • 2Swiss Data Science Center, Lausanne, Switzerland
  • 3Dep. of Environmental Systems Science, ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland
  • 4Institute of Environmental Engineering, EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland

Catchment transit times are often inferred by assuming a transit time distribution (TTD) or a SAS function and calibrating their parameters against measured tracer data. In the presence of high-resolution tracer data, machine learning tools may offer a promising avenue for advancing TTD estimation by leveraging data-driven approaches, integrating diverse data sources, and improving accuracy, scalability, and adaptability. Here, we lump together ideas coming from Large Languages Models, survival analysis and sum of squares techniques to introduce a novel data-driven model for estimating TTDs. Our model is influenced by SAS-based approaches; however, unlike previous studies, we avoid imposing strong parametric assumptions on the SAS function. We showcase the performance of our model against a benchmark of eight virtual datasets that differ in precipitation amounts, seasonality and runoff flashiness. We find that machine learning methods may effectively predict solute concentration in streamflow yet struggle to accurately estimate the true TTDs. However, when the appropriate inductive bias is incorporated, numerous key aspects of TTDs, such as the young water fraction and the average TTDs, can be estimated robustly. We also identify settings where the estimation task is more challenging for our model. This analysis, based on reproducible virtual benchmarks, provides a first overview of machine learning capabilities in estimating TTDs and inspires future TTD model inter-comparisons.

How to cite: Benettin, P., Duchemin, Q., Zanoni, M. G., Rinaldo, A., and Kirchner, J.: Data-driven approaches to infer transit time distributions from high-resolution tracer data, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12200, 2024.