EGU24-11244, updated on 09 Mar 2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11244
EGU General Assembly 2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Inter-annual and long-term variability in streamflow elasticity to precipitation reveal bias in estimates of hydrological sensitivity

Bailey Anderson1,2, Louise Slater1, Jessica Rapson3, Manuela Brunner2,4, Simon Dadson1,5, Jiabo Yin1,6, and Marcus Buechel1
Bailey Anderson et al.
  • 1University of Oxford, Geogrphy and the Environment, Oxford, United Kingdom of Great Britain – England, Scotland, Wales (bailey.anderson@ouce.ox.ac.uk)
  • 2WSL institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
  • 3Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
  • 4Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
  • 5NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. Wallingford, UK
  • 6State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Hubei, 430072, P.R. China

Empirically derived sensitivities of streamflow to precipitation are often assumed to be temporally unchanging. This assumption may be unrealistic because changes in climate and storage are known to alter this relationship. We present a non-stationary regional regression approach which is functionally similar to typical elasticity estimation approaches. This is applied to 2967 catchments in the United States to estimate variability in interannual, and trends in long-term, streamflow elasticity to precipitation over a 39-year period. We show that interannual elasticity is highly variable in water-limited catchments, indicating that these are especially sensitive to year-to-year climate variability, as compared to other regions. Interannual elasticity is more often correlated with the one-year lagged standardized precipitation index than with temperature or in-phase standardized precipitation index, suggesting that antecedent soil moisture, groundwater storage, and precipitation seasonality influence streamflow sensitivity. Finally, statistically significant long-term trends in elasticity exist in some regions, but trend magnitude is generally small. These findings suggest that an assumption of stationarity in long-term average elasticity may still be appropriate at the regional scale, however, year-to-year variation in streamflow responsiveness to precipitation is often substantial.    

How to cite: Anderson, B., Slater, L., Rapson, J., Brunner, M., Dadson, S., Yin, J., and Buechel, M.: Inter-annual and long-term variability in streamflow elasticity to precipitation reveal bias in estimates of hydrological sensitivity, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11244, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11244, 2024.