FORESIGHT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF RURAL TOURISM IN UKRAINE IN THE POST-WAR PERIOD

Purpose. The purpose of this study is to develop alternative scenarios for the development of rural tourism through the foresight methodology. Methodology / approach. Theoretical interpretations were formed by general scientific methods and approaches. To assess the prospects for the development of revitalisation of rural tourism, the method of scanning the horizon was used, which demonstrated the main tendencies and trends of the market and consumer tourism needs. Empirical methods made it possible to work out the stressors of systemic national crises, the global COVID pandemic, a full-scale war, which threaten the subjects of rural tourism with extraordinary losses and critical destruction of the material and technical base, losses of tourist interest – that is, questioning the existence of business as a whole. Therefore, an important task today is to draw up foresight scenarios and tactics that will create modules of investment attractiveness and mechanisms for the rapid accumulation of financial, architectural and construction, infrastructural and social potentials for the recovery of the economy of territorial units and the country as a whole. Results. Since forecasting is based on three “whales” (actual state, business experience and prospects), the foresight methodology is represented by tools with appropriate characteristics and management competencies. Therefore, in order to avoid complications and contradictions in the foresight of rural tourism, it is suggested to think over and install profiles of investment proposals, foresight scenarios for realising the possibilities of its restoration. Reasoned positions reflect the relevance of foresight research for assessing future prospects and opportunities for the restoration of rural tourism in Ukraine. The results of the study shed light on opportunities for rural development and suggest interventions to create a fully sustainable ecosystem. The study provides actionable information for rural tourism actors, stakeholders and potential investors who can benefit from forecasting the prospects and expectations emerging in rural tourism in the post-war period. Originality / scientific novelty. The scientific value of the research lies in the evaluation of the prospects for the development of rural tourism as a direction of diversification of the agricultural economy of Ukraine in 2019–2023 and the post-war period. A model for forming the investment profile of a rural tourism subject is proposed for implementation. Practical value / implications. The practical value of the research lies in the fact that it can be used as a tool for building effective cooperation in the development of plans and programs aimed at partnership relations with rural communities of Ukraine, tourism subjects, estate owners, etc. The value of this study lies in the foresight of rural tourism development prospects, which determine the competitive advantage of rural areas, with an emphasis on a relatively new and controversial topic after the war in Ukraine, namely its positioning in the structure of the restorative mechanism of regional development and tourism.


INTRODUCTION
For a long time, Ukraine's economy has been in a depressed state caused by the financial crisis of 2008, the occupation of the eastern territories and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, the pandemic lockdowns of 2019-2023, and the full-scale war from 2022 to the present.The level of development of agriculture in Ukraine before the full-scale war demonstrates its importance for the economy as a whole: its share in GDP was the highest among all sectors of the economy and amounted to more than 10 % (Ecodia, 2023).The industry's revenues in 2021 amounted to USD 27 billion.During the war period, they decreased by 22.2 % (Agribusiness Ukraine, 2023).As of September 2023, the losses caused to agricultural entities amounted to USD 40.2 billion.(World Bank, 2023).Working in the extremely difficult conditions of martial law (2022-2024), agricultural entities are forced to look for adaptation mechanisms and guidelines (opportunities) for functioning and revitalisation.As an important sector of the economy in terms of global exports, it requires focused scientific attention to identify areas for improving efficiency and competitiveness, creating favourable conditions for sustainable rural development.In particular, this is possible through the diversification of economic activities of agricultural entities, where rural tourism is a priority.When assessing the possibilities for rural tourism development in the pre-war period, it should be noted that in 2017, the potential was formed by rural estates, the number of which amounted to 377 units (State Statistics Service…, 2017).Since the beginning of the war, there have been no official statistics, but an analysis of related Internet resources (greentour.com.ua,ruraltourism.com.ua)revealed only 83 units.In particular, in the temporarily occupied territories and territories where hostilities are (were) ongoing as of February 2024 (Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv regions and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea), no rural estates have been recorded.In addition, assessing the losses of rural tourism entities from the war is a difficult task due to the escalation of military threats to these territories.Nevertheless, the prerequisites for the development of rural tourism are positive, as Ukraine has a significant cultural heritage, natural and recreational resources.At the same time, the development of rural tourism after the end of the war will help restore the economy and support rural communities.In this perspective, the foresight of rural tourism development in Ukraine in the post-war period is of particular importance as a scientific approach to strategic planning of the future direction of development.
Dynamic transitions to each of the stages of the industrial revolution provoked a number of socio-cultural, economic and environmental problems in the environment of coexistence of human and nature.New generations often do not understand biological processes (growing agricultural crops, production processes of animal husbandry, etc.) and do not realise the damage (physical, emotional, informational) from the impact of total digitalisation on the biosphere of individual territories and the planet as a whole.Therefore, it is important to explore the possibilities of implementing a culture of conscious consumption and eco-friendliness through the tools and functionality of tourism.ISSN 2414-584X The focus of the study was placed on the hypothesis regarding the importance of rural tourism development in overcoming the depressive state of economically and physically devastated agricultural regions and Ukraine as a whole, caused by war.An auxiliary hypothesis suggested the potential of foresight as a forecasting tool based on global and market trends.The purpose of this study is to elaborate alternative scenarios for the development of rural tourism through the foresight methodology.To achieve this goal, the following tasks were processed: theoretical aspects of foresight, its components were determined, and foresight scenarios and potential opportunities for the development of rural tourism were considered through the prism of stressors and motivators of modern crises and disasters.

LITERATURE REVIEW
Rural tourism is an area of agribusiness diversification that helps to attract investment and develop rural areas.In this context, the analysis of previous studies helps to identify key trends and problems, and to find development drivers.First of all, the study is based on the legal interpretation of rural tourism as "...a specific type of economic activity in the form of rural hospitality, which is the provision of services to ensure the recreation of urban residents in private households in rural areas using the property and labor resources of members of private farms, natural and recreational features of the area, cultural, historical and ethnographic heritage of the region" (VRR, 2003).This definition contains key predicates for the development of rural tourism, in particular: retreatrestoration of the organism in the conditions of the natural environment; eco-friendingformation of habits of ecological behaviour; cognitiveperception of agricultural production processes, etc.In conditions of oversaturation of information and pollution of the natural environment, these goals can become determinants of travel.The formation of this hypothesis is prompted by global events in the world (UNEP, 2023; Mygal, 2023) and recent research on tourism and rural development (Sharpley, 2006;Gutkevych & Haba, 2020;Yakymchuk et al., 2021).
Rural tourism is also a type of tourism that can be characterised as one that is based on the evolution of society's needs and the diversity of purposes of tourist trips to rural areas (Figure 1).
The presented topic is cross-disciplinary, because it is at the junction of scientific approaches of agro-industry, tourism and foresight (forecasting).Therefore, we will conduct the development of the foresight for the development of rural tourism in Ukraine in these collinear directions.There are quite a lot of developments in the agricultural field in the academic sector.Modern research covers issues of digitisation (Bacco et al., 2019;Abbasi et al., 2022;Torabi et al., 2023), the use of artificial intelligence (Holzinger et al., 2023;Javaid et al., 2023)  Regarding the foresight, it is worth noting that it is an actual object of scientific research, because it forms the future vision of threats, risks and prospects for economic entities.Therefore, foresight, since the 1970s, has been effectively evolving in terms of facilitating methodology and working out the trends of industry markets and innovations.As a result of scientific studies, a powerful methodological base has been formed to date, which allows planning scenarios for the development of industries, including tourism.Thus, the theoretical aspects and methods of foresight research are elaborated in the works of Kryvtsova (2020) (2020), which substantiates the theoretical and methodological foundations and applied provisions of the formation and implementation of regional mechanisms for stimulating entrepreneurship in the field of rural green tourism; Makhynia (2022), where the European experience is studied; Zhybak et al. (2021), which describes the forms of rural green tourism: rural tourism, agrotourism, agroecotourism; Yarema (2020), where the activities of agro-villages in the system of rural green tourism and others are researched.The article of Bashynska & Stetsyk (2023) is devoted to the need for the development of rural tourism as a tool for increasing the competitiveness of rural areas of all regions of Ukraine in the post-war period.The mentioned sources made it possible to distinguish the forms of rural tourism in Ukrainian destinations and directions of their development.
As we can see, the agricultural sector of Ukraine was quite developed before the start of the full-scale invasion, as so scientific developments were mainly directed at technical problems and innovations.Regarding the functioning of tourism in the agricultural sector and the establishment of partnership relations, the topic was popular, but it did not receive successful practical implementations in Ukraine.Therefore, in light of the priority of agro-industry in the structure of the economy of Ukraine, the development of rural tourism is a significant determinant of territorial (regional) recovery in the post-war period.Thus, the issue of the foresight of the development of rural tourism is urgent and requires scientific justification.

METHODOLOGY
The study is based on the interpretation of the theory and practice of foresight development in rural tourism in Ukraine.In this context, to determine the impact of foresight on shaping the strategic perspectives of agricultural entities in Ukraine based on tourism activities, theoretical and analytical information was analysed.General scientific methods allowed for a theoretical analysis of approaches to foresight, conceptualisation, and formulation of operational definitions.The next step involved the application of modelling methods, which conceptually outlined approaches to foresight research in rural tourism development.The reference model demonstrates the goals, objectives, priorities, and measures of the strategic vision for rural tourism development, models the information field of foresight research, and possible consequences of different development scenarios for rural tourism on the economy, social sphere, and environment.In turn, the determinant model of foresight development in rural tourism helps identify the potential of rural areas for tourism development, taking into account macro and micro-environmental factors, guiding directions of possible outcomes, and partnership prospects in the tourism industry.A separate block details the directions of foresight security in identifying potential threats, defining possible risks, and developing strategies to ensure the safety and protection of tourists, local residents, and the natural environment.
During the processing of publicly available information, statistical methods of ISSN 2414-584X analysis were used, resulting in the identification of prospects for rural tourism development in Ukraine based on pre-war experience of Ukrainians' engagement in domestic tourism and relevant leisure activities (pre-war period -2021).Research results on global trends in rural tourism development, conducted using the horizon scanning method (2019-2023, forecast for the post-war period), created a framework for strategic envisioning of possible development scenarios for rural tourism, including integrations of artificial intelligence and symbiotic technologies.The scenario approach allowed for deeper investigation and formulation of event deployment trials with an optimistic (α-scenario) market development forecast and the conclusion of the war in Ukraine, as well as a pessimistic (β-scenario) forecast, which anticipates an escalation of hostilities and risks of exacerbating ecocide in Ukrainian territories.
A reliable procedure of research and confirmatory analysis of foresight research in rural tourism was applied to a dataset gathered through processing official statistical data and online information sources.
It should be noted that our study has several limitations, revealing issues that require further research.Firstly, many territories prioritised for rural tourism development are under occupation and suffer from destruction, making it challenging to assess and forecast the extent of the damage.Secondly, there is an undefined timeframe for the escalation of the war and it is impossible to quantitatively forecast the losses and damages to the tourism infrastructure, making the conclusions of foresight scenarios inherently probabilistic.Thirdly, analytics on rural tourism during a state of war are not officially documented, and hypotheses can only be formulated based on internet sources.However, the results of rural tourism development foresight and the pre-war experience of their viability in the context of state and regional tourism development programs create theoretical and practical value for the study.

Theoretical substantiation of rural tourism development foresight.
The foresight of rural tourism development is based on the category of "foresight", which is quite actively studied in scientific sources and means, firstly, the process (systematic attempt) (Sweeney, 1995) of forecasting for the long-term future, which aims to determine the levels of strategy and potential future scenarios through scanning the external environment, crafting desired short-term and long-term images (Bosovska et al., 2023); secondly, the creation of a system of analytical evaluation methods for identifying and long-term planning of entrepreneurial opportunities (Hajizadeh, 2013); thirdly, a tool that helps to confidently face the future, understand its opportunities and risks, and develop medium-and long-term development strategies (Makian & Nematpour, 2021;Skrypnychenko, 2021); fourthly, the ability to correctly judge what will happen in the future and plan your actions based on this knowledge (Cambridge Dictionary, 2022).
In turn, the scientist Prodanova (2021) in her work characterised the term ISSN 2414-584X "foresight" as a tool or set of tools, a method or system of methods, methodology, process and technology of scientifically based foresight, prediction of the future state of society and various numerous spheres of social activity, which, in our opinion, is confusing and eclectic.Based on the above arguments, we will try to characterise the term "foresight" in a way that is consistent with the goal.Supporting the opinion of scholars that foresight is a process of predicting the future, we, at the same time, appeal to other views and argue that methods and tools are the support of this process.Therefore, we conceive foresight as a competency-driven method for forecasting the future, employing a range of methods and tools to analyse information and discern potential event scenarios, while formulating development strategies for specific economic entities (both at micro and macro levels).
Therefore, its validity and effectiveness will depend on the goals, type of research object, and the degree of variability/stability of the environment (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Reference model of rural tourism development foresight
Source: own development.
As we can see, the goals of the foresight of rural tourism development are to focus on ensuring sustainable balanced development, risk management, justification of strategic decisions, search/verification of new solutions, evaluation of the success of innovations, search for sources of benefits and investments both at the level of the business entity and local communities, the state as a whole.These goals specify the objects of research, which are also organisational and economic processes in a certain territorial entitya rural tourism cluster, formed by the synergy of interaction between rural tourism entities, local communities and the population.The research is based on official information sources, forecasts of consulting organisations, experts

Justification of strategic decisions
Search / verification of new solutions

Assessment of innovation success
Search for sources of profit / investment, etc.

Object of study Information field:
-facts, theories and expertise; -legislative and normative acts, initiatives; -official forecasts; -the results of marketing research; -statistics; -projects, plans, tendencies and trends, etc.

Foresight methodology: tools, methods, technology (conduction algorithm) hypotheses strategies tactics solution
Environment frame (scanning horizons) of the tourism and agro-industrial markets, generated sources of artificial intelligence, etc.This information, processed using foresight tools, allows us to identify the vectors of rural tourism development, outline its investment attractiveness, and formulate a strategic plan at the micro and macro levels.
In addition, the foresight model interpreted in Figure 1, helps to focus on possible communications in the process of implementing foresight sessions of rural tourism revitalization (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Determinant model of the foresight of the development of rural tourism
Source: own development.
As we can see from Figure 3, different types of communications are formed in the information space, which determine the information channels of interaction: external (macrocommunications) and internal (microcommunications).Macroeconomic factors shape the conditions for interaction between all participants in the foresight of hospitality and tourism development.Based on the legal, political, economic, socio-cultural and technical conditions of the national macro environment, global trends that are macro factors, the rural tourism sector forms its development projects in the international, national and territorial (local) markets, looking for opportunities and sources of investment.
State institutions generate statistics and forecasts on key financial and economic indicators, provide guidance on inflation, exchange rates, certain economic security issues, compliance, opportunities and sources for development, etc. Territorial communities create levers of economic and infrastructure support.
Microeconomic factors that are directly reflected through socio-cultural traditions, mentality, consumer behaviour, corporate standards, service standards, etc. shape the communications of those interested in information flows, who, based on foresight studies and conclusions, strategize the activities of hospitality and tourism entities, implement tactics and operational actions/reactions to environmental challenges.This allows them to be relevant, clearly understand the needs of consumers, take into account the total digitalisation of relations, and face crises and disasters of various types, as crises and disasters are prone to cyclical repetition.Based on the above-mentioned interpretations of the foresight methodology, it is worth considering the issue of security, which, in the context of the escalating coronavirus pandemic and the uncertainty of the scale of destruction and the timeframe from the war, is an urgent issue for the future development of rural tourism entities and the Ukrainian economy as a whole.

Foresight security of rural tourism in the context of crises and disasters.
Referring to previous studies on economic security (Mazaraki et al., 2023), where it is characterised as "a complementary model for diagnosing the environment of an entity's functioning and its management system, taking into account external aspects managing relationships with partners, consumers, business owners and other stakeholders to protect interests based on managing potentials, risks and threats in operations and strategic perspective, taking into account digital trends and tendencies", and also comparing this interpretation with foresight, we will try to formulate the initial provisions of foresight security.
Thus, possessing both characteristics: a competent approach to predicting the future and a complementary model of environmental diagnostics, foresight security should have the features of foreseen protection against hazards, threats and risks (Figure 4).Thus, foresight security can be formulated as a competent approach to predicting the future by diagnosing the environment, systems, specific projects or business entities, with the aim of ensuring safe conditions for the functioning and development of the target object.
Foresight security is important for investment, because weaknesses, threats and risks, uncertainty, and financial and reputational losses are relevant not only in crisis management, but also form an insurance mechanism to ensure the sustainability of rural tourism development.

Assessment of prospects for the development of rural tourism in Ukraine.
Up until the full-scale war, agriculture and farming entrepreneurship were actively developing in Ukraine.This is evidenced by statistical data showing a positive trend before the war (2014-2023), followed by a sharp decline at its onset (Figure 5).It should be noted that a significant share of rural tourism activities is carried out by private peasant farms operating in accordance with the Law of Ukraine "On Private Peasant Farming" (Verkhovna Rada…, 2003), which entitles the owners of these farms to provide rural green tourism services without state registration of business entities.Therefore, assessing the dynamics of private peasant farms is an important step towards identifying trends in the development of rural tourism in Ukraine.Thus, a statistical analysis of the change in the number of the studied objects in the period 2014-2023 shows a gradual significant reduction in the number of objects (Figure 6).
During the pandemic crisis, the number of farms has been growing steadily, which has contributed to increased attention to agro-estates and personal farms as locations for observation and accommodation during quarantines and lockdowns.However, starting from 2022, a certain percentage of farms ceased their operations due to being located in conflict zones, temporarily occupied territories, or areas that have been de-occupied but are still mined, destroyed, and require fundamental demilitarisation.In this light, positive forecasts for the development of rural tourism  However, upon the cessation of hostilities, the forecasts are positive, and the development of rural tourism serves as a factor in overcoming emotional exhaustion among people and in the rehabilitation of war victims and military personnel.
To determine the prospects for the development of rural tourism in Ukraine, we will evaluate the pre-war experience of the involvement of Ukrainians in domestic tourism (Figure 7).At the same time, the analysis of consumer behaviour predicates shows the following results (Figure 8).According to statistics, in the pre-war period, rural tourism accounted for about 7 % of travel in Ukraine, which shows the prospects of this area.The demonstrated data positively characterise the attractiveness of rural tourism, so it is worth paying attention to the theoretical and practical aspects of its development as a profitable area for diversifying the rural economy and a place for psychological and physical recovery of Ukrainians after the war.
The main foresight sessions shown in Figure 3 should take into account the latest global trends in rural tourism and the economy as a whole.We will try to summarise their main directions based on complementing the views presented in the scientific literature and scientific sources.For this, we will apply the horizon scanning method, the results of which are shown in Table 1.
As Table 1 shows, trends in most key areas in 2019-2023 are negative.A relatively positive factor is the digitalisation catalysed by the coronavirus lockdown in 2019, which led to the expansion of communication channels and the introduction of innovations: the formation of IoT, an increase in data volumes, the emergence of cloud and gaming technologies, digital platforms, etc.In addition, such components of Industry 4.0 as artificial intelligence, augmented reality, additive manufacturing, composite materials, multi-agent systems, microservices, cybersecurity, etc. in the digital environment have scaled up opportunities to global reach and brought society closer to the conscious use of artificial intelligence, the symbiosis with which (cobots) creates an innovative step towards Industry 5.0, which, according to experts, began in 2022 (Okhrimenko et al., 2022).Thus, in the future, foresight security becomes a key priority in the development of rural tourism.

Foresight scenarios for the development of rural tourism in the post-war period.
In elaborating foresight scenarios for the development of rural tourism, it is important to take into account not only the existing trends and tendencies, but also the actual situation in Ukraine (Table 2). 5. Failure of the public authorities to meet the real needs of rural tourism entities.6. Emergence of natural (flooding) and man-made emergencies (destruction of the Kakhovka Reservoir and the sea coast, pollution of the Dnipro River basin and the Azov and Black Seas with sewage, mines and other explosive devices, etc.).7. Impossibility to use the territories (including deoccupied ones) for rural tourism due to mining, destruction, etc.) Source: own development.ISSN 2414-584X The analysis showed significant potential for the development of rural tourism in Ukraine, but also helped identify threats and weaknesses that prevail due to the escalation of martial law and the uncertainty of the timeframe of military threats.Therefore, the priority is to ensure the physical safety of tourists during air raids, as well as the high level of air, soil, and water pollution caused by the war.
Since the development of rural tourism is one of the tasks of territorial communities, the following political (programmatic) decisions are important: -promotion of rural tourism potential on the domestic market and international market of tourist services (weekend tours, eco-tours, fishing, excursions for schoolchildren/students, retreats, rehabilitation hospitality (rehabilitation and social inclusion), gastronomic tours, festivals, agri-marts, etc.); -improvement of tourism infrastructure and rural tourism offers by promoting economic activities in the community (road rehabilitation, support for social initiatives, tax preferences, joint programs, etc.); -development and promotion of digital technologies (digital tours, digital communication platforms, digital distribution of services, etc.).
The above allows for the of foresight scenarios and potential opportunities for the development of rural tourism through the prism of stressors and motivators of modern crises and disasters (Table 3).It's worth mentioning that the α-scenario serves as a starting point for foresight in rural tourism entities that are either financially stable or require minimal interventions to return to their previous state.On the other hand, the β-scenario pertains to start-ups, ventures requiring capital investments, or situations where rural tourism entities are in a critical (or catastrophic) state, necessitating visionary or transformational actions.Additionally, there is a third scenario, the inertial scenario, where economic entities maintain their state without significant changes and operate based on established management approaches.However, the lack of desire to predict and anticipate events renders it unsuitable for modelling foresight scenarios.The proposed scenarios are aimed at shaping foresight sessions and strategic actions, emphasising the importance of identifying competitiveness determinants for products, markets, and regions, while establishing a system of values, standards, and security for the subject of foresight.As we can see, regardless of the type of expected situation (optimistic or pessimistic scenario), it is important to create an investment profile of a rural tourism entity based on ensuring its foresight security in the digital space.This should take into account the capabilities and goals of the rural tourism entity, which is modelled as follows (Figure 9).
The investment profile of the entity is expected to facilitate communication between the main participants in the rural tourism market: owners of rural tourism facilities, consumers, intermediaries (distributors), local communities, etc. ISSN 2414-584X Given that Ukrainian regions have significant recreational resources, natural retreat opportunities, and a high degree of agricultural land development, rural tourism can act as a key agent of socioeconomic development in rural areas after the war ends and the territories are restored.

DISCUSSION
Each country has its own development priorities and occupies a corresponding place in global industry specialisation, including tourism.Ukraine is perceived globally as an agrarian country, so the development of rural tourism is an a priori competitive area for diversifying the agricultural sector and the economy as a whole.Due to the slowdown in tourist flows caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, research insights have moved into the field of crisis management of tourism.The development of the industry has become a theoretical object of discussion.Rural tourism received the least attention from researchers from Ukraine and other countries.
In addition, business development foresights based on the results of analytical and strategic forecasts of globalisation and integration of economic systems have lost their relevance due to global crisis challenges, and many authors see this as a threat

Personalised information about the founder (owner) of
the rural tourism establishment (mansion, farmhouse, bungalow, chalet, etc.)

Personalised information about the local community of the object of rural tourism
(the level of development of agricultural resources, social and economic preferences, local taxes, the size of the community, its demographic dimension, etc.) Passport of the object of rural tourism (the size of the building, the area and productivity of agricultural land, specialisation (types of activities), partnerships, etc.)

OKR and KPI of the activity of the founder (owner) of the establishment:
-expected profitability; -ROI (Return on Investment); -expected risks; -compliance control of documentation, etc.

Communication platforms
Professional platforms: NGO "Ukrainian Investment Platform"; platforms of business mentors and business angels, start-ups, franchising, impact investing, investment hubs, online marketplaces, etc.
Partner / affiliate platforms of owners of rural tourism establishments and stakeholders Distribution platforms and travel companies Social media pages, blogging, podcasts, workshops, event (holistic) platform (mobile application, chatbot, buyer), participation in TV projects, etc. (Prodanova, 2021;Mainzer, 2020).In particular, Mazaraki et al. (2018) associate clear and economically justified foresights for the long-term future with the inability to identify areas of strategic research to maximise socio-economic results for the recovery of the tourism system.Harishnaika et al. (2023), Skrypnychenko (2021) and others declare the problematic nature of tourism recovery due to the causal relationship between tourism and economic growth.Thus, we can see that the complexity of forecasting foresight scenarios creates obstacles to identifying potential opportunities for the development of the hospitality and tourism sector and necessitates the adjustment of organisational and economic mechanisms for strategic management and forecasting, the use of which will reduce losses in the post-war period.
The processed scientific sources were valuable for the formation of our research methodology and confirmation of the hypothesis on the prospects for the development of rural in Ukraine.Thus, the article by Chin (2022) and Chen et al. ( 2023) are devoted to the formation of empirical evidence of the development of rural tourism after COVID-19 and study of the relationship between the potential development of the competitiveness of a rural tourism destination along with inherited, created and auxiliary resources in the perception of domestic tourists.This study confirms the hypothesis that the formation of rural tourism in a particular location depends on certain agricultural resources that the territory has: inherited (natural), created (anthropogenic) and auxiliary (related industries).In particular, an infrastructurally developed rural tourism destination and a competent marketing approach to promoting a tourism product are factors of competitiveness in the regional tourism market.This hypothesis is supported by practical insights.In particular, Chan (2023) analyses the factors of sustainable development, approaches and recommendations for improving the management of rural tourism destinations in Malaysia; Kim & Jamal (2018)in Korea.
Opinions regarding the fact that rural tourism has a significant potential for creating unique properties for the restoration of a person's emotional and physical state, as a factor of his/her competitiveness, are quite common in scientific works.Thus, scientists Tamaki & Ichinose (2019) paid attention to the study of the revival of rural areas in Japan on the basis of natural and cultural tourism.Jepson & Sharpley (2018) made conclusions about nature and the countryside being a source of spiritual or emotional satisfaction and the recognition of tourism as a "sacred experience that offers an emotional/spiritual dimension in a rural context".
On the other hand, the importance of a methodological and scientific systematic approach to managing the activities of rural tourism entities as a separate vector of territorial (regional) development and overcoming demographic problems is traced.The study by Dashper (2023) interprets tourism as a way to diversify and overcome the problems of rural communities with labor, where, in particular, gender inequality in the distribution and remuneration of labor is emphasised.These statements are also characterised by Jolliffe & Nakashima (2020), who studied the possibilities of developing a Japanese tea village, where the activities of local associations, tea farm owners, small café and shop operators, villagers, and visitors are synergised.An explanation of the organisational structure of rural tourism, a description of the main categories that include rural tourism, and their reflexive contribution to human understanding are discussed in work of Almeida & Pinto Machado (2021).
These studies reveal an additional argument for the economic attractiveness of rural tourismwith comprehensive and high-quality management, this type of tourism becomes an investment-attractive area, and also helps to overcome certain macroeconomic problems: unemployment, economic growth of households through income and local communities through paid taxes (multiplier effectregion, country).
In addition, the rapid digitalisation and the rise of Industry 5.0 predictably put forward new requirements for the organisation of activities, including the active introduction of innovations and artificial intelligence.This is confirmed by the study of Liu (2020) on the example of rural tourism in Shanluo (China), who notes problems in the intellectual development of rural tourism, such as "backward infrastructure, uniform website content, lack of talent related to intelligent tourism, backward information technology, and poor quality of service of scenic spots", which requires "industrial modernisation by government departments, tourism management departments, rural tourism communities and other departments".Vuković & Roljević-Nikolić (2018); Thomas (2023) and Lapointe (2023) also emphasise the importance of state support for rural/regional/local rural tourism initiatives and the creation of a creative and practical, socially responsible space.At the same time, the methodology for identifying and using attributes that helps rural community practitioners choose a particular tourist destination was developed in practical recommendations by Dahlan (2017).
As we can see, the reviewed literary sources reveal the properties of rural tourism as a determinant of innovative development of a destination, as well as a center for achieving cognitive, recreational, and socio-cultural goals of travel by tourists.
Thus, the discussion platform confirmed our hypothesis about the importance of rural tourism development for the economically depressed and physically destroyed by the war agro-industrial complex of Ukraine.Given that attention to rural tourism was focused on several decades ago, there are many questions for research and development of scientific approaches, both regulatory and socio-economic.Given the prospects for the end of the war in the near future, foresight studies demonstrate the importance of rural tourism in the country's regional development.

CONCLUSIONS
Crisis phenomena in Ukraine's socio-economic systems at various levels and spheres related to the consequences of COVID-2019 and exacerbated by russia's fullscale military invasion of Ukraine require the use of different approaches, methods and tools to respond to these threats and promote effective development in the postwar period.The tourism sector of Ukraine, which had sufficient development prospects before the crisis, has now suffered critical damage and business suspension.In such circumstances, the use of foresight as an innovative tool for predicting development and shaping the future is an integral element of research.Detailing the existing problems and challenges, as well as identifying them in the future, will facilitate the development of promising scenarios and the formation of the necessary strategies for the development of tourism, in particular, rural tourism.
The study examines the theoretical basis of foresight and defines its main definitions.Thus, "foresight" is aligned with the goal and interpreted as a competence-based approach to predicting the future, which operates with a system of methods and tools processing the information field to determine possible scenarios of events and formulate strategies for the development of certain economic units (mіcro-and macro-level).
The proposed deterministic model of foresight for the development of rural tourism provides for the formation of different types of communications in the information space and the need to take into account security issues, which in the context of existing and potential crises is an important element in ensuring the further development of the considered sector of the Ukrainian economy.The prospects of Ukraine's rural tourism sector for development and investment in the post-war period are evidenced by satisfactory indicators of Ukrainians' involvement in domestic tourism and predicates of consumer behaviour (7 % of travel in 2021 was in rural tourism).Such trends, in parallel with ensuring the safety of rural tourism actors in the future, can contribute to positive scenarios to facilitate their subsequent advancement.
Scanning the horizons (2019-2023, post-war perspectives) of global and national trends in rural tourism allowed us to formulate foresight scenarios.According to the directions of different foresight results, α-and β-scenarios were identified, representing more optimistic and realistic-pessimistic future states of the rural tourism sector.This vision guides and lays the foundation for strategic decisions in the studied sectors of the Ukrainian economy in the post-war period.

LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH
After the end of the war, psychological relief and physical rehabilitation will become popular, and rural tourism will have a place in this, so it is important to work on the preparation of investment projects in the field of recreational and resort activities.That is why we propose a methodology for the formation of investment profiles as a business card of a rural tourism entity in the digital investment space.Emphasis should also be placed on the development of inclusiveness by introducing cycles of events on the culture of dialogue, social cohesion, barrier-free accessibility and multifunctional cultural space in rural areas.As tourism development provides an opportunity to test new business models.This study offers an excellent opportunity to examine current efforts to develop alternative segments of the tourism market with the support of local communities and the state, which are theoretical prerequisites for further research and the formation of practical insights into the development of rural , leaving out traditional problems of the industry and related economic spheres of activity, in particular rural tourism.Studies of the problems of rural tourism are presented in the works of such scientists as Svatiuk et al. (2023); Paul & Roy (2023); Hong &Wan (2023); Niedziółka (2017); Tamaki & Ichinose (2019); Dangwal et al. (2022); Chin ISSN 2414-584X (2022); Chan (2023); Dashper (2023), etc.
; Skrypnychenko (2021); Prodanova (2021), Makian & Nematpour (2021).The development priorities of the national [Ukrainian] tourism system based on the foresight were considered by Mazaraki et al. (2018) and Bosovska et al. (2023).Since the domestic macroeconomic environment has its own characteristics and unique agricultural resources, the research conducted by us was organised through the prism of the academic views of Ukrainian scientists.In particular, represented by The purpose of traveling: -farm tourism -apitourism -equestrian tourism -cultural and ethnic thematic trips -fishing on farm ponds, lakes -harvesting on the territories of rural lands -participation in the care of domestic animals and birds -gastronomic tour -wine tourism -rehabilitation -etc.Background: Rural areaslandscapes, farmland, ecological space Rural heritagearchitecture, traditions Rural activitieslivestock, crop production, fish farms, snail and ostrich farms, etc. Rural lifelocal cuisine, folk art, crafts retreat eco-friendship complicity RURAL GREEN TOURISM SOCIAL SIGNIFICANCE: ✓ Preservation of national heritage ✓ Education of eco-consciousness and humanity ✓ Physical and psychological recovery of society INDIVIDUAL VALUE ✓ Self-identification ✓ Rehabilitation ✓ Rest from personal social role ✓ Revision of personal attitude to basic human values ✓ New life experience ✓ Worldview discoveries and realisations ISSN 2414-584X the publications of Yazina et al. (2018), Boiko (2020), which overview the principles of the functioning and development of rural green tourism in Ukraine; Zbarsky et al.

Figure 4 .
Figure 4. Formulation of the approach to foresight-safety in the field of rural tourism Source: own development.
are hindered by the uncertainty of the wartime timeframe and the impossibility of calculating losses and expenses for the revitalisation of the recreational potential of rural areas.

Figure 7 .
Figure 7. Assessment of the prospects of rural tourism due to the interest of Ukrainians in domestic travel, 2021, % Source: compiled according to DART (2021).

Figure 8 .
Figure 8.The place of rural tourism in the advantages of tourists' recreation in Ukraine, 2021, % Source: compiled according to DART, 2021.

Figure 9 .
Figure 9. Model of formation of the investment profile of the subject of rural tourismSource: own development.

Infospace of the foresight of rural tourism entities
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Table 1 Markers of scanning the horizon of global trends in the field of rural tourism
Source: developed on the basis of Okhrimenko et al. (2019); Ramanauskas et al. (2021); Muhyl (2022); Bosovska et al. (2023).