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Predicting Forest Fire Numbers Using Deterministic-Probabilistic Approach

Predicting Forest Fire Numbers Using Deterministic-Probabilistic Approach

Nikolay Viktorovich Baranovskiy
Copyright: © 2020 |Pages: 12
ISBN13: 9781799818670|ISBN10: 1799818675|EISBN13: 9781799818694
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-7998-1867-0.ch004
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MLA

Baranovskiy, Nikolay Viktorovich. "Predicting Forest Fire Numbers Using Deterministic-Probabilistic Approach." Predicting, Monitoring, and Assessing Forest Fire Dangers and Risks, edited by Nikolay Viktorovich Baranovskiy, IGI Global, 2020, pp. 89-100. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-1867-0.ch004

APA

Baranovskiy, N. V. (2020). Predicting Forest Fire Numbers Using Deterministic-Probabilistic Approach. In N. Baranovskiy (Ed.), Predicting, Monitoring, and Assessing Forest Fire Dangers and Risks (pp. 89-100). IGI Global. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-1867-0.ch004

Chicago

Baranovskiy, Nikolay Viktorovich. "Predicting Forest Fire Numbers Using Deterministic-Probabilistic Approach." In Predicting, Monitoring, and Assessing Forest Fire Dangers and Risks, edited by Nikolay Viktorovich Baranovskiy, 89-100. Hershey, PA: IGI Global, 2020. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-1867-0.ch004

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Abstract

The annual task of forecasting forest fire danger is becoming increasingly relevant, especially in the context of global warming. The forecast of surface fires is most important, as more than 80% of all vegetation fires are surface fires. Practically all crown fires develop from surface fires. This chapter discusses the deterministic-probabilistic method for predicting the number of forest fires in a controlled forest area. This methodology is based on the assumption that the number of registered and projected forest fires is related to the probability of their occurrence. The influence of forest fire retrospective data on the predicted number of forest fires for some sites of the Timiryazevskiy forestry of the Tomsk region was studied. This chapter presents the results of a comparative analysis of forecast data and statistics.

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