After the Deluge Regional Crises and Political Consolidation in Russia

"After the Deluge" offers a new, provocative interpretation of Russia's struggle in the 1990s to construct a democratic system of government in the largest and most geographically divided country in the world. The Russian Federation that emerged from the Soviet Union faced dissolution as the leaders of Russia's constituent units in the early 1990s defied Moscow's authority, declared sovereign states on their territory, refused to remit taxes, and even adopted national constitutions, flags, and anthems.Yet, by mid-decade, a fragile equilibrium had emerged out of the apparently chaotic brinkmanship of central and regional officials. Based on extensive statistical analysis of previously unpublished data as well as interviews with numerous central and regional policymakers, "After the Deluge" suggests an original and counterintuitive interpretation of this experience.In most cases, confrontations between regions and Moscow constituted a functional kind of drama. Regional leaders signaled just how much they were willing to risk to secure particular benefits. With a policy of "selective fiscal appeasement," federal officials directed subsidies, tax breaks, and other benefits to the most protest-prone regions, which in turn engendered a shift in local public opinion. By buying off potential regional dissenters, Moscow halted what might have become an accelerating bandwagon.Besides offering insight into Russia's emerging politics, "After the Deluge" suggests a range of parallels to other cases of territorially divided states and empires--from contemporary China to Ottoman Turkey. It should appeal to a broad audience of scholars in political science, economics, history, geography, and policy studies.Daniel S. Treisman is Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of California, Los Angeles.

A CIP catalog record for this book is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Treisman, Daniel.
After the deluge : regional crises and political consolidation in Russia / Daniel S. Treisman. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-472-10998-7 (alk. paper) 1. Federal government-Russia (Federation) 2. Central-local government relations-Russia (Federation) 3. Russia (Federation)-Politics and government-1991-I. Title. JN6693.5.S8T74 1999 351.47-dc21 99-37664 CIP I am more than grateful to my colleagues in the political science department at UCLA for the atmosphere of intellectual curiosity and good humor in which the final manuscript took shape. Lev Freinkman, of the World Bank, has been more than generous with his expertise on numerous occasions. I am grateful also to participants in seminars and workshops where I presented earlier versions of parts of the argument, at Harvard, Yale, UCLA, the University of Pennsylvania, and the U.S. Institute of Peace, as well as at the American Political Science Association 1995 and 1996 annual meetings and the American Economic Association 1998 annual meeting.
In Russia, I have trespassed on the patience of more people than can be listed here. Leonid Smirnyagin and Aleksei Lavrov generously shared their data and insights over the course of several years. Others have found the time to provide their own perspectives on Russia's emerging politics. I am grateful in particular to Ramazan Abdulatipov, Aleksandr Belousov, Yuri Blokhin, Viktor Filonov, Boris Fyodorov, Sergei Ignatev, Gabibulla Khasaev, Mikhail Leontev, Aleksandr Morozov, Oleg Morozov, Mikhail Motorin, Vitali Naishul, Valery Pavlov, Sergei Shatalov, Sergei Sinelnikov, Viktor Stepanov, Andrei Yakovlev, and Mark Yanovsky. Mark Bond, Konstantin Borovoi, Ruslan Shamurin, Mikhail Zhivilo, and Yuri Zhivilo provided broader insight into the world of Russian business and politics, and Sergei Lazaruk into the Moscow cultural tusovka.
Charles Myers at the University of Michigan Press shepherded the manuscript through the editorial process with patience and dedication. I am grateful also to anonymous readers of the mansucript-some for valuable comments and suggestions, others for securing the additional time necessary to see my arguments confirmed by subsequent developments. I would like to acknowledge financial support from the Harvard University Russian Research Center, which provided a summer grant and a postdoctoral fellowship at crucial periods, as well as the UCLA Academic Senate and Center for European and Russian Studies. My understanding of center-region relations was enhanced toward the end by participation in a technical support project offering advice on fiscal federalism to the Russian Ministry of Finance, funded by USAID under the direction of Robert Conrad. No part of the argument in this book should, of course, be attributed to USAID or any other funding organization.
Chapter 3  On a personal note, I am grateful to my parents, Anne Kahneman and Michel Treisman, and my stepfather, Danny Kahneman, for the constant support, interest, and understanding they have shown through the years as this project took form. Hans and Elaine Landesmann, my mother-and father-in-law, invited me along to some of the most conducive spots for writing that I can imagine. My wife, Susan Landesmann, to whom the book is dedicated, put up with it-and me-for so long that she deserves a medal. Instead, she will have to settle for my love.