Objective To analyze trends in the disease burden of esophageal cancer attributable to high body mass index (BMI) in the Chinese and United States populations from 1990 to 2019 and predict deaths over the next 10 years.

Methods This study used Global Burden of Disease 2019 data to obtain mortality and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) data by year, gender, and age for the disease burden of esophageal cancer attributable to high BMI in China and the United States from 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to analyze long-term trends. Bayesian age–period–cohort analysis was used to predict age-standardized mortality attributable to esophageal cancer in 2020–2030.

Results From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality rate for esophageal cancer attributable to high BMI in China increased from 1.44/10⁵ to 1.80/10⁵ and the age-standardized DALY rate increased from 34.17/10⁵ to 40.79/10⁵. From the perspective of gender, the number of deaths, DALYs, and the corresponding age-standardized rate of males in China and the United States increased from 1990 to 2019. The age-standardized mortality and DALY rates of Chinese women showed a downward trend, decreasing by 21.36/10⁵ and 29.71/10⁵, respectively. Joinpoint analysis results revealed that the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in mortality attributable to esophageal cancer in the total population and men in China from 1990 to 2019 increased by 0.78% (95%CI: 0.71-0.84) and 1.52% (95%CI: 1.44-1.60), respectively, and that in females decreased by 0.88% (95%CI: −0.96-−0.80). AAPC in women in the United States rose at a slow rate of 0.07% (95%CI: 0.02-0.09). The burden of esophageal cancer deaths attributable to high BMI is predicted to continue to rise in China and the United States in 2020–2030.

Conclusion The disease burden of esophageal cancer attributable to high BMI significantly increased in China from 1990 to 2019. The disease burden of esophageal cancer caused by high BMI in China is expected to increase from 2020 to 2030.