近20 a孟加拉湾海表温度变化对南海夏季风爆发早晚的影响
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国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2013CB430202),江苏省自然科学基金面上项目(BK20131431),公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306020,GYHY201306028),重庆市气象局开放式研究基金(kfjj-201302),高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室开放课题(PAEKL-2013-K1),江苏省高校“青蓝工程”等共同资助


Impact of sea surface temperature anomaly over the Bay of Bengal on the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon in recent 20 years
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    摘要:

    基于美国NOAA现代极高分辨率辐射仪(Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer)提供的1993-2012年逐日海表温度(SST)资料,利用季节经验正交函数(S-EOF)和相关分析等统计方法,研究了孟加拉湾海表温度变化对南海夏季风爆发的影响。结果表明,孟加拉湾的(6~14°N,85~95°E)海区海表温度变化对南海夏季风爆发早晚具有重要指示意义,该海区海表温度异常(SSTA)与南海夏季风的爆发日期存在密切的正相关,通过了0.05信度的显著性检验,即当孟加拉湾海表温度正(负)异常时,南海夏季风晚(早)爆发。应用德国马普气象研究所的ECHAM5全球大气环流模式在孟加拉湾关键海区进行了敏感性数值试验,发现在关键海区降低其5月海表温度0.2℃的情况下,南海夏季风爆发日期相应提前5 d左右,而在升高0.2℃情况下,南海夏季风推后10 d左右爆发。在孟加拉湾5月海表温度降低的情况下,促使80~100°E的越赤道气流增强,南海区域西风分量增强,进而促使南海夏季风提前爆发。

    Abstract:

    Based on the daily Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data obtained by the modern high resolution radiometer of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) during 1993 to 2012, with the methods of Season-reliant Empirical Orthogonal Function (S-EOF) and correlation analysis, the impact of SST anomaly of the Bay of Bengal on the onset of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon was investigated. It is found that the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly(SSTA) of the Bay of Bengal (6°-14°N, 85°-95°E)plays an important role in the onset of the SCS summer monsoon. A significant correlation passing 0.05 confidence level exists between the SSTA in the key area and the onset dates of the SCS summer monsoon, which shows that when the SSTs in the Bay of Bengal is higher (lower) than the normal, the SCS summer monsoon would occur later (earlier). Numerical experiments based on the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5 indicate that when SST in May decreases (increases) by 0.2℃ in the key area of Bay of Bengal, the SCS summer monsoon would occur earlier (later) about 5(10) days than the normal onset date, because the SSTA enhances (weakens) the cross-equatorial flows at 80°-100°E and then increases (decreases) the westerly over the SCS.

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吴丹晖,曾刚.近20 a孟加拉湾海表温度变化对南海夏季风爆发早晚的影响.气象科学,2016,36(3):358-365 WU Danhui, ZENG Gang. Impact of sea surface temperature anomaly over the Bay of Bengal on the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon in recent 20 years. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2016,36(3):358-365

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  • 收稿日期:2014-12-19
  • 最后修改日期:2015-01-29
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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-07-14
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