Author(s): Suleman Shaikh; Nino Ohle; Thomas Strotmann; Clemens Cremer; Simone Mccurdy

Linked Author(s): Suleman Shaikh, Nino Ohle, thomas strotmann

Keywords: Elbe estuary; Hydrodynamic-numerical model; Operational model; Forecast; Data-assimilation

Abstract: The steady growth in ship sizes poses new challenges for the port of Hamburg, like in many ports in the world. Increasing vessel dimensions and draughts in combination with limited river geometry (e.g. draught limiting water depth or restricted sizes of turning circles) induce the need of additional nautical data to ensure the lightness, efficiency and safety of shipping. Hence, the desire of meteorological and hydrodynamic data for an innovative and accurate navigation support is increasing. Therefore, the Hamburg Port Authority (HPA) and DHI have developed an Operational Current Information System (OpCIS) for the Port of Hamburg area. OpCIS provides a web-based display of real-time and forecast current speeds and -directions and predicts the slack tide situation in the Port of Hamburg. To facilitate this, a fully automatized operational system composed of i) a calibrated and validated two-dimensional hydrodynamic-numerical model, ii) data gathering (e.g. boundary conditions from official local water level forecasts), iii) recurring, automatized simulation runs providing real-time and forecast currents, iv) storage of results in a database and v) web-based interactive visualization of the results is implemented. The real-time and forecast application is used for operational navigation systems and utilized e.g. by the nautical headquarters, Hamburg harbour-pilots and an increasing number of further stakeholders also from the sector of civil protection. Parallel to the operational use of OpCIS, a long-term validation of the water level forecast during the last storm surge season has been carry out. In this work first results of the long-term modelling evaluations will be presented, including data quality assessments of the forecast, such as quantification of deviations from actual measurements and their origin by considering different forecast windows. Deviations can either be attributed to imprecisions of the model or the input data. Based on the findings, possible improvements of the numerical model e.g. data-assimilation of gauge data are discussed. As an outlook, further planned applications of OpCIS, as simulated water levels which should be used for the prediction of bridge clearances, or innovative web-based visualizations of OpCIS, will be presented.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/IAHR-39WC252171192022257

Year: 2022