Strategy for the Development of the Russian Arctic. Results and Prospects

Federation Abstract. On March 5, 2020, the President of the Russian Federation approved a new edition of the Basics of State Policy in the Arctic for the period until 2035. The document defined the goals and objectives of the development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation for the next 15 years. The main tool for implementing state policy in this high-latitude region should be a new strategy for the development of the Russian Arctic zone. Summarizing and analyzing the results of the current Strategy for the socio-economic development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation and ensuring national security for the period up to 2020 (Strategy) will allow us to concentrate the efforts of the state on the most significant problems of the macroregion. The article is devoted to reviewing the results of the implementation of the Strategy, the adoption of which, in 2013, among other things, stimulated the processes of separating the macroregion into an independent object of state administration. The authors analyze the goals, objectives, and results achieved at each stage of the Strategy. Their impact on the socio-economic development of the region as a whole is


Introduction
In 2008, after the approval of the Basic Principles of Russian Federation State Policy in the Arctic to 2020 and beyond 1 , the Russian Arctic once again became the focus of public administration after the reforms of the 1990s. This became the starting point for the public administration system in the Arctic zone of Russia (AZRF or the Arctic zone of Russia). The goals, objectives, priorities, and mechanisms for the implementation of state policy were determined, as well as the composition of the Arctic territories 2 , the State Commission for the Development of the Arctic was created, the Arctic zone was allocated as a separate object of statistical observation, which signifi- So, in 2006 Norway presented a development program for the northern territories -"New Building Blocks in the North" 5 . In 2009, a new version of this program was adopted, and a plan for its implementation was formed. According to these documents, Norway planned to increase its efforts in the region, primarily in scientific research. Denmark had developed its strategy for the Arctic 6 in May 2008; its primary goal was to strengthen Greenland's autonomy while maintaining the role of Denmark as one of the key players in the region. According to Canada's northern strategy 7 , adopted in 2009, this Arctic state is focused on strengthening Canada's sovereignty, the socio-economic development of the northern territories, and protecting the fragile nature of the Arctic and the development of self-government of peoples inhabiting northern Canada. Presidential Directive on National Security 8 in 2009, a new US Arctic strategy was adopted. During the same period, the Arctic Council member countries (Iceland, Finland, Sweden) and observer countries in the Arctic Council, China, and India, developed their Arctic strategies. It should be noted that the strategic documents of the four Arctic coastal states, in contrast to the Russian Arctic Strategy, directly noted the need to achieve leadership in the region.
As a result, various models for managing the development of the Arctic spaces were created, which differ in many characteristics (the scale of the territories, physical-geographical and natural-climatic features, various models of the administrative-territorial and state structure, the level of socio-economic development of the Arctic territories, etc.). At the same time, the European 3 Strategy of socio-economic development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation and ensuring national security for the period until 2020. Approved by the President of the Russian Federation Pr-232 on February 8, 2013. URL: http://government.ru/info/18360/ (accessed 27 July 2020). 4 Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation of April 21, 2014 No. 366 "On approval of the state program of the Russian Federation" Social and economic development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020". 5 New Building Blocks in the North. The next Step in the Government's High North Strategy. URL: http://www.regjeringen.no/en/dep/ud/Documents/Reports-programmes-of-action-and-plans/Action-plans-andprogrammes/2009/north_blocks.html?id=548803 (accessed 27 July 2020). 6 Arktis i en brydningstid. Forslag til strategi for aktiviteter i det arktiske område. URL: http://www.um.dk/da/menu/Udenrigspolitik/GlobaleEmner/Arktis/ArktiskStrategi/ (accessed 27 July 2020). 7  countries that are part of the Arctic Council believe that the solution of the main development problems of this macroregion, unique in many respects, is possible only with the participation of the largest countries -world leaders, such as China, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea [2,Zaikov K.S.,Kondratov N.A. et al.].
This year, the implementation of the Russian Arctic Development Strategy is coming to an end. Summing up, analysis and critical, realistic assessment of the achieved results are the basis for the development of a new Strategy for the development of the macroregion, which will act as an instrument for the implementation of the Fundamentals of State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Arctic for the period up to 2035 9 .

The first results of the implementation of the Strategy of social and economic development of the AZRF
In the first decade of the twentieth century, the AZRF had to face such threats as the outflow of labor resources, the low quality of life of the indigenous minorities, the low population density and its uneven distribution, the lack of technologies for the development of new deposits, the aging of the icebreaker fleet, the lack of means of constant, integrated space monitoring, etc.
In this regard, the strategy's implementation was planned in two stages, the first of which ended in 2015. During this period, it was planned to increase the efficiency of state management of the region, develop a system of economic incentives, including support for indigenous peoples, create an information and telecommunications infrastructure, and ensure a favorable operational regime, create an integrated security system to protect against natural and human-made emergencies, ensure the elimination of environmental damage and take other measures to ensure environmental safety in the Russian Arctic. The continuation of scientific research, including the substantiation of the continental shelf's outer boundary, was also set as priorities.
Also, according to Rosstat data, the rate of natural population growth is consistently decreasing in the Arctic zone (Fig. 2). Against the background of relatively stable figures, the number of people who left the region at the level of about 140 thousand people a year indicates the aging of the Russian Arctic population. This is largely due to the creation of new jobs, which positively affected the unemployment rate, which decreased from 5.6% in 2017 to 4.6% in 2019 (according to the methodology of the International Labor Organization). This, in turn, was one of the factors in the increase in the share of the gross regional product produced in the Russian Arctic in the total gross regional product of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation from 5% in 2014 to 6.2% in 2018 (Fig. 4).   We believe that the adoption of the new Strategy for the Development of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2035, as well as the adjustment of the State Program "Social and Economic Development of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation" will contribute to the continuation of Russia's policy towards the Arctic region.