Variability of Helioclimate Factors and Applicability to the Emergency Service Population of the Northern Region

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Abstract

The purpose of this study was to study the influence of the variability of weather and heliophysical factors on the appeal to the “Ambulance” service for different groups of nosologies in the population of the Russian North. Information about calls to the emergency medical service of Khanty-Mansiysk was obtained from the database of calls for the period from 2001 to 2021 by disease classes (ICD-10). To assess the dynamics of weather factors, data from the All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information and materials from the weather station of Khanty-Mansiysk were used. The dynamics of air temperature; barometric pressure; relative humidity; baric trend; maximum wind speed; weight oxygen content in the air are analyzed. Data on the relative daily number of sunspots are obtained from the materials of the Royal Observatory of Belgium. The average daily values of the level of planetary geomagnetic activity, expressed by the Ap index, are copied from the website of the National Center for Geophysical Data of the USA (Boulder). Mathematical processing was carried out using wavelet analysis. The graph of temperature fluctuations for the period from 2001 to 2021 shows a significant circadian cyclicity and a semi-annual rhythm with a high level of trend. Significant rhythms of barometric pressure with a period of 5 years, 1 year and rhythms close to semi-annual, seasonal and near-monthly are observed. Humidity changes significantly in the circadian and intra-annual rhythms. The baric tendency has significant rhythms: 3 years, 1 year, 6, 3, 2 months. Changes in the maximum wind speed do not have a circadian rhythm, but intra-annual monthly variations are observed. The value of the weight oxygen content has circadian; two-year, five-year; two- and near-monthly rhythms. The relative number of sunspots (W) for the period from 2001 to 2021 is characterized by a five-, two-year and circadian rhythm. When considering the variations of the number W for the period from 1818 to 2017, in addition to the classic eleven-year, annual and near-monthly, rhythms with a period of 42.5 years, 18.1 years and 2.1 years are found. The index of planetary geomagnetic activity (Ar) has a rhythm with a period of 4 years, two-year and near-annual. The significance of all rhythms is p=0.001. When analyzing fluctuations in geomagnetic activity from 1932 to 2016, long-term rhythms are added: 35.00 years; 16.06 years; 10.88 years; semi-annual and three-month rhythms. Despite numerous hypotheses of the search for cosmobiological harmony in the form of “evolutionary synchronisms”, “rhythmic cascades”, “golden section”, the problem of the interaction of exogenous natural rhythms and endogenous rhythms of the human body remains largely unresolved. Comparison of the results of various studies is difficult due to methodological and mathematical approaches. With observation periods of 100-200 years or more, a long-period component is monitored, and in clinical studies (from a day to a week), short-period components are detected. Changing the background in the form of helioclimatic and social variations also does not add accuracy. The use of various methods of time series analysis involves obtaining information of different resolution levels (Fourier transform, SWANN, wavelet analysis). Nevertheless, the results obtained track the classical rhythms of solar and geomagnetic activity with periods of about eleven years, a year and a month. There is also a 35-year-old rhythm, a 42.5-year-old rhythm close to the 44.16-year rhythm identified by Bezrukova A.Ya., at 18.1 years (long-period components of the lunar tide) and other intra-annual rhythms with periods from two weeks to 9 months. The effect of helioclimatic factors on human health indicates the absence of constant coherence (in our case, the consistency of these processes over time, manifested when they are combined), due to the presence of a large number of mega- and mesorhythms, which is manifested by amplitude and phase desynchronization of heliogeophysical indicators and health status.

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Introduction. Heliogeophysical and climatic factors quite seriously affect human health [19; 22; 26]. Meteotropic reactions are observed in diseases of the heart, blood vessels, bronchi and lungs, digestive organs, joints, skin, nervous and mental pathologies [16; 23; 27].

In the northern region, conditions are created for the disruption of the temporal organization of the psychological and physiological functions of the body, due to climatic and geographical features and the characteristic heliophysical status of the circumpolar regions [8; 11; 12; 18]. The human organism is constantly in a state of mismatch in the phase of its own endogenous rhythms and fluctuations of helioclimatic factors [6; 10], which can lead to the development of various pathologies [7; 20; 25].

Purpose of the research is studying the influence of the variability of weather and heliophysical factors on the ambulance service appeals for different groups of nosologies in the population of the Russian North.

Objects and methods of research. Information about the ambulance service appeals in Khanty-Mansiysk was obtained from the electronic database of calls for the period from 2001 to 2021, on average per day by class, in accordance with ICD-10 (https://clck.ru/32oJRk): Certain infectious and parasitic diseases (AB); Neoplasms (CD); Endocrine diseases (E); Mental and behavioural disorders (F); Diseases of the nervous system (G); Diseases of the circulatory system (I); Diseases of the respiratory system (J); Diseases of the digestive system (K); Diseases of the musculoskeletal system (M); Diseases of the genitourinary system (N); Pregnancy, childbirth and the puerperium (O); Injuries (ST). The length of the time series is 7665 measurements.

To assess the dynamics of weather factors, long-term meteorological data of the All-Russia Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information were used – World Data Center (ARRIHI – WDC) (http://meteo.ru). The observation period was from 2001 to 2021. The dynamics of the following parameters was analyzed: ambient air temperature (оС); barometric pressure (kPa); relative humidity (%); partial pressure of oxygen in the air (g/m3). The partial pressure of oxygen in the air is directly proportional to atmospheric pressure minus the partial pressure of water vapor and inversely proportional to air temperature: O2 (g/m3) = 83 * (P-e) / T, where P and e in kPa, T in °K, another definition – partial density, which correlates with the partial pressure of oxygen in the inhaled and alveolar air, depending on the physical characteristics [15].

Data on the relative daily number of sunspots (Wolf number – W) were obtained from the materials of the Royal Observatory of Belgium (Brussels) [33]. To track the short period component of rhythms and possible correlation with weather data and chronopathology rhythms, the period from 2001 to 2021 was analyzed. To analyze the long-period component, we analyzed a time series consisting of 72635 observations for the period from 1818 to 2017 (199 years).

The daily average values of the level of planetary geomagnetic activity, expressed by the Ap-index, were copied from the Internet site of the US National Geophysical Data Center (Boulder) (http://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles).

The period from 2001 to 2021 was analyzed to track the short period component of rhythms and possible correlation with weather data and chronopathology rhythms. To analyze the long-period component, a time series consisting of 31025 observations was used for the period from 1932 to 2017 (85 years).

Statistical data processing. To test the assumption about the presence of many cyclical parameters of contacting the emergency medical service, weather factors, and heliogeophysical indicators, a program was used using wavelet analysis to identify the rhythms of the estimated indicators and evaluate their correlation [17]. Wavelet is a mathematical function that allows you to analyze various frequency components of data [9; 13; 14]. Based on the results of the wavelet transform, we can judge how the spectral composition of the time series changes over time. The statistical significance of the rhythms was assessed by multiple (5000) random permutation of the levels of the initial time series. The reduced p shows the proportion of cases when the energy of the selected frequency component in the original series exceeded the corresponding energy in a random permutation.

Results. The graph of the initial series of temperature fluctuations for the described period from 2001 to 2021 (tabl. 1) shows a significant (p=0.0001) annual cycle with a high rhythm amplitude and a semi-annual rhythm with a high trend level (p=0.065). Intra-annual seasonal (period of 96.6 days) and lunar (period of 23.7 days) are present, but unreliable. In decreasing power, rhythms of barometric pressure are observed with a period of 5 years, 1 year, and rhythms close to semi-annual, seasonal and circa-monthly: 173.4 days; 109.3 days; 37.2 days, with the significance of the detected rhythms (p=0.001). The value of humidity regularly changes in the circumannual rhythm (395.6 days), the intra-annual dynamics is as follows; 6, 4 and 2 months. All rhythms are significant (p=0.001). The value of the partial pressure of oxygen, being calculated, retains the main rhythm of such components of the formula as temperature, barometric pressure and humidity, namely: circannual (p=0.001); two years (p=0.001), five years (p=0.042); two- (p=0.001) and about-monthly (p=0.002) rhythms. Rhythms are arranged in descending order of power.

The relative number of sunspots (W) for the described period from 2001 to 2021 (tabl. 2) changes with the following pattern. The most stable and powerful is the rhythm with a period of 5 years (p=0.001), followed by two-year and circannual rhythms. The following low-amplitude components reveal a rhythm with periods of 9, 4 months and circa-monthly rhythms.

When considering the variations in the number W for the period from 1818 to 2017, wavelet analysis shows, in addition to the classic eleven-year, annual and circa-monthly, rhythms with a period of: 42.51 years; 18.10 years and 2.14 years.

 

Table 1. Consistency of fluctuations in weather factors and calls to the EMS by groups of diseases of the population of Khanty-Mansiysk for the period from 2001 to 2021

Weather factors

Period of rhythms

6 years

5 years

3 years

2 years

1 year

6 months

4 months

3 months

2 months

1 month

3 weeks

Groups of diseases

T

 

 

 

 

AB; CD; F; G;I; J; K; M; N; O

AB; G; I

 

AB;J; N

 

E;F

 

P

G; N

 

 

 

AB; CD; F; G; I; J; K; M; N; O

AB; G; I

G;M

 

 

E;F

 

RH

 

 

 

 

AB; CD; F; G; I; J; K; M; N; O

AB; G; I

G;M

 

AB; CD; F; G; N

 

 

PO2

 

CD; F; I; M; O; SТ

 

AB; E; I; J; M; O; ST

AB; CD; F; G; I; J; K; M; N; O

 

 

 

AB; CD; F; G; N

E;F

 

 

When conducting a wavelet analysis of the index of planetary geomagnetic activity (Ap), attention is drawn to a larger number of significant rhythms (tabl. 2), which can be explained by the sum of the effects of various sources, which are complex systems of currents flowing in the ionosphere and in the Earth's magnetosphere.

 

Table 2. Consistency of fluctuations in heliomagnetic activity and calls to the EMS by groups of diseases of the population of Khanty-Mansiysk for the period from 2001 to 2021

Solar and magnetic activity

Period of rhythms

5 years

4 years

2 years

1 year

9 months

6 months

4 months

3 months

2 months

1 month

2 weeks

Groups of diseases

W

CD; F; I; M; O; SТ

 

AB; E; I; J; M; O; ST

AB; CD; F; G; I; J; K; M; N; O

N; ST

 

G; M

 

 

E;F

 

Ap

 

AB; G

AB; E; I; J; M; O; ST

AB; CD; F; G; I; J; K; M; N; O

 

AB; G; I

 

AB; J; N

AB; CD; F; G; N

E; F

CD; M

 

The most powerful is the rhythm with a period of 4 years, the next multi-year, two-year and circannual. Intra-annual cycles: six-, three-, two- and circa-monthly. Significance of all rhythms is p=0.001.

When analyzing fluctuations in geomagnetic activity over a longer time interval (from 1932 to 2016), multi-year rhythms are added: 35.00 years; 16.06 years; 10.88 years; semi-annual and three-monthly rhythms.

Discussion. If we take a mechanistic approach to the influence of heliophysical and weather factors on biosystems, then there are coincidences in the periods of parameters of solar, magnetic activity, weather factors, the occurrence and exacerbation of diseases of various groups (tabl. 1 and 2). The annual rhythm W coincides with the frequency of calls to the EMS by groups of diseases: AB; CD; F; G; I; J; K; M; N; O, and the period of rotation of the Sun – with exacerbations of groups of diseases E; F; fluctuations of Ap are similar with the indicated groups of diseases and most weather factors.

Synchronicity is also observed in rhythms with periods of 5 years (secondary geophysical rhythm) and 2 years, and the injury rate is added, as well as intra-annual rhythmic activity with periods of 9 and 4 months. Coincidences in the two-year rhythm are also observed with the Ap index (groups of diseases AB; E; I; J; M; O; ST), but geomagnetic activity also has a four-year rhythm (synchronized with AB; G) and intra-annual low-amplitude rhythms (six-, three-, two-month and two-week), nevertheless coinciding with the rhythms of fluctuations of exacerbations of pathology in groups AB; G; I; CD; J; F; M; N.

The correlation analysis between the time series of appeals for diseases, weather factors, solar and geomagnetic activity did not show significant relationships, which is quite natural, given the polycyclic nature of the analyzed parameters, and is confirmed by the dynamics of the in-phase index. That is, despite the high index of synchronicity, there is a change in the phase difference of the analyzed pairwise time series.

Conclusion. Despite the numerous hypotheses of the search for cosmobiological harmony in the form of “evolutionary synchronisms”, “rhythm cascades” [2; 3], “golden section” [4; 28], the problem of interaction between exogenous natural rhythms and endogenous rhythms of the human body remains largely unresolved [23; 24]. Comparison of the results of various studies is difficult due to methodological and mathematical approaches. With observation periods of 100-200 years or more, a long-period component is monitored, and in clinical studies (from a day to a week), short-period components are detected. Changing the background in the form of helioclimatic and social variations also does not add accuracy. The use of various methods for analyzing time series involves obtaining information of various levels of resolution (Fourier transform, STAN, wavelet analysis). Nevertheless, the results obtained trace the classical rhythms of solar and geomagnetic activity with periods of about eleven years, a year, and a month. There is also a 35-year rhythm, a rhythm of 42.51 years, close to the rhythm of 44.16 years, identified by A.Ya. Bezrukova [1], at 18.1 years (long-period components of the lunar tide) and other intra-annual rhythms with periods from two weeks to 9 months [5]. It is shown that the impact of helioclimatic factors on human health indicates the absence of constant coherence (in our case, the consistency (correlation) of these processes in time, which manifests itself when they are added), due to the presence of a large number of mega- and meso-rhythms, which is manifested by amplitude and phase desynchronization of heliogeophysical indicators and health status.

 

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

“The study was carried out at the expense of the grant of the Russian Science Foundation and the Government of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Yugra No. 22-15-20023, https://rscf.ru/project/22-15-20023” 

 Авторы заявляют об отсутствии конфликта интересов.

«Исследование выполнено за счет гранта Российского научного фонда и Правительства ХМАО-Югры № 22-15-20023, https://rscf.ru/project/22-15-20023»

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About the authors

Oleg N. Ragozin

Khanty-Mansiysk State Medical Academy

Author for correspondence.
Email: oragozin@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5318-9623
SPIN-code: 7132-3844

D.Sc. (Medicine)

Russian Federation, Khanty-Mansiysk

Irina A. Pogonysheva

Nizhnevartovsk State University

Email: severina.i@bk.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5759-0270
SPIN-code: 6095-8392

Ph.D.

Russian Federation, Nizhnevartovsk

Elena Yu. Shalamova

Khanty-Mansiysk State Medical Academy

Email: selenzik@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5201-4496
SPIN-code: 8125-9359

Dr. habil.

Russian Federation, Khanty-Mansiysk

Denis A. Pogonyshev

Nizhnevartovsk State University

Email: dapogonyshev@nvsu.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8815-1556
SPIN-code: 1179-9674

Ph.D.

Russian Federation, Nizhnevartovsk

Elina R. Ragozina

Khanty-Mansiysk State Medical Academy

Email: elinka1000@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4874-5074
Russian Federation, Khanty-Mansiysk

Victoria V. Postnikova

Nizhnevartovsk State University

Email: missmadcon@mail.ru
SPIN-code: 2372-6621
Russian Federation, Nizhnevartovsk

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