초록

이 글은 러시아 푸틴 정권의 사례를 통해, 경제 상황이 선거권위주의 체제의 두 안정성 지표라 할 대중지지도 및 엘리트 응집성 변동에 끼친 영향을 포괄적 · 통시적으로 분석한다. 또한 ‘우크라이나 사태’ 이후 서방의 대러 경제제재 및 그로 인한 경제위기의 심화에도 불구하고, 푸틴 체제가 다시금 공고해지게끔 추동한 원인 역시 밝히고자 한다. 2000년 이후 푸틴 대통령은 국제 에너지가격 상승 덕분에 강한 대중적 지지기반을 구축할 수 있었다. 비록 선거권위주의 체제의 본질적 속성대로 엘리트파벌 간 갈등이 나타났지만, 높은 경제성장세 속에서 정치적 분화로까지 연결되지는 않았다. 그러나 2008년 시작된 경제 침체로 인해 차츰 떨어지던 대중지지도가 급격히 하락하기 시작하고 메드베데프-푸틴 양두체제하에서 분파 간 갈등까지 극대화되면서, 결국 체제는 안정성의 위기를 맞게 되었다. 하지만 ‘우크라이나 사태’를 통한 푸틴 정권의 관심전환 전략으로 미러 간 역내 경쟁이 부각되고, 국내적으로 민족주의가 부상하면서 다시금 안정성을 회복하는 양상이다.

키워드

선거권위주의, 경제위기, 푸틴 체제, 대중지지, 엘리트 응집성

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