How is Australia Adapting to Climate Change Based on a Systematic Review ?

We develop and apply a systematic literature review methodology to identify and characterize the ways in which the peer-reviewed literature depicts how climate change adaptation is occurring in Australia. We reviewed the peer-reviewed, English-language literature between January 2005 and January 2018 for examples of documented adaptation actions. Our results challenge previous assumptions that adaptation action is not happening in Australia and describes adaptation processes that are underway. For the most part, actions can be described as preliminary or groundwork, with a particular focus on documenting stakeholder perspectives on climate change and adaptation, and modelling or scenario planning in the coastal zone, agriculture and health sectors. Where concrete adaptations are reported, they are usually in the agricultural sector and are most common in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia’s food basket. The findings of the review advance our understanding of adaptation to climate change as a process and the need to consider different stages in the process when tracking adaptation.


Introduction
In Australia, documented climatic changes include rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, more extreme events (heat waves, bushfires, flooding, storm events), increasing ocean temperature, and sea-level rise (Head et al. 2014). These changes, together with other anthropogenic drivers of environmental change (i.e. resource development, population increase), have already negatively affected terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems such as the Great Barrier Reef (Ainsworth et al. 2016), compromised agricultural production in some regions (Asseng and Pannell 2013), and have negatively affected human health (Beggs and Bennett 2011). Climate models project that these changes will continue, and likely accelerate into the future, with further effects on ecosystems and people (IPCC 2013). Notwithstanding the importance of mitigation initiatives, adaptation is desperately needed if the negative impacts are to be moderated and opportunities captured (Reisinger 2014).
In light of the urgency for adaptation, efforts to track adaptation initiatives have increased in recent years (Biesbroek et al. 2010). Some researchers have mapped the current state of adaptation in particular places and sectors to better understand adaptation processes and identify knowledge and resource needs. For example, researchers have completed systematic reviews of the peer-reviewed literature to characterize adaptation actions (herein referred to as concrete 1 actions) in the Canadian Arctic (Ford and Pearce 2010), among developed nations , and globally . In their review of observed climate change adaptations in developed nations reported in the peer-reviewed literature, Ford et al. (2011) found few examples of concrete adaptations underway in Australia, and labelled 1 Adaptation/concrete actions: "tangible steps taken to alter institutions, policies, programs, built environments, or mandates in response to experienced or predicted risks of climate change" (Lesnikowski et al. 2013(Lesnikowski et al. , p. 1155). Australia a laggard in climate change adaptation. We test the hypothesis that Australia is a laggard in climate change adaptation using a systematic review of the peer-reviewed literature and a definition of adaptation that includes both groundwork 2 and concrete actions (Lesnikowski et al. 2013). The findings of this review are intended to provide a proxy of the state of adaptation in Australia from the perspective of the peer-reviewed literature.

Climate change adaptation in Australia
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples have a long history of coping with and adapting to changing environmental conditions including recent climate change (Green et al. 2010b;Prober et al. 2011 Organization (CSIRO), to provide practical and effective adaptation options for policy 2 Groundwork actions: "preliminary steps taken toward adaptation that inform and prepare countries to implement adaptations, but do not themselves constitute changes in policy, programs, or delivery of services" (Lesnikowski et al. 2013(Lesnikowski et al. , p. 1155 Adaptation to climate change is also the focus of state, territory, and local governments, mostly within their environmental agendas and as part of their own climate change strategies (Fidelman et al. 2013). In Australia, the responsibility of adaptation planning is largely placed on municipal councils, reflecting the country's diverse geography and broad scope of potential climate change impacts and adaptations (Bradley et al. 2015). With that said, effective climate change adaptation requires a multi-governance approach in which each level of government has a shared responsibility (Nalau et al. 2015).

Methods
A systematic literature review was used to examine the ways in which the peerreviewed literature depicts how climate change adaptation is occurring in Australia Preprints (www.preprints.org) | NOT PEER-REVIEWED | Posted: 13 August 2018 doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0226.v1 following methods described by Lesnikowski et al. (2013) for differentiating actions as groundwork and concrete. Systematic literature reviews respond to specific questions by using explicit and reproducible methods for selection and analysis. While this review approach is common in the health sciences, it has also gained traction in the climate change field as a way to characterize and keep track of the burgeoning body of literature .

Document selection
A document search was performed in the Scopus database using the terms "Adapt*" AND "Climat* Change" AND "Australia*" in the title, keywords, and abstract fields.
Scopus was selected due to its availability as one of the most current, powerful, comprehensive and widely used search engines for peer-reviewed literature (Falagas et al. 2008  Groundwork actions: 1) Impact, risk, vulnerability and adaptive capacity assessments Articles provide site or industry specific assessments on climate change impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities, as well as adaptive capacity. Articles suggest methodologies for the development of such assessments.

2) Research on adaptation options
Articles explore the different aspects, costs and benefits of adaptation options that are or could be implemented in Australia.
3) Conceptual tools Articles provide conceptual tools like frameworks, guidelines, and theories to improve planning, implementation and/or management of adaptation initiatives. They discuss lessons on adaptation practice and explore the applicability of these for the Australian society and environment.

4) Stakeholder perspectives and networking opportunities
Studies focusing on identifying, discussing, and understanding stakeholder perspectives on climate change and their attitudes towards adaptation.

5) Recommendations for adaptation initiatives
Studies research potential improvements for current adaptation initiatives.

6) Modelling that evaluate or/and suggest climate change adaptation
Articles explore the effects and impacts of climate change in the different sectors of society as well as the role of adaptation initiatives in future scenarios. These articles emphasize, evaluate or/and suggest the need for specific adaptation actions based on the predictions obtained by the models and future scenarios analysis.

7) Economic analysis focused on adaptation
Articles provide economic analyses on adaptation actions that are occurring or could occur in Australia. These articles provide assessments on adaptation actions profitability and/or estimate the costs and benefits of these.

8) Policy and framework reviews that suggest adaptation
Articles suggesting the inclusion of aspects of climate change adaptation in existing policies and frameworks.

Concrete adaptation actions:
Tangible steps taken to alter institutions, policies, programs, built environment, or mandates in response to experienced or predicted risks of climate change.
Excluded Natural systems and other:

Natural systems
Studies focusing on the effects of climate change on the biological (animal, plant) and physical (soil, land, water, and climate) systems only. Prehistoric climate papers and empirical studies examining crops focusing only on biology/ecology were included in this category.

Environmental resources management
Articles focusing on the management of natural systems and their provision of ecosystem services that do not make a specific reference on climate change adaptation.
Human systems not related to climate change adaptation:

Mitigation response/ renewable energies
Articles focusing on mitigation strategies, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, energy efficiency and clean energy production. Articles focusing on increasing carbon sequestration.

Review of climate change impacts
Articles focusing on the effects and impacts of climate change for the different sectors of society (without the use of assessments). These articles identify adaptation as a need and justify it with the review of impacts but do not address specific adaptation actions. They suggest adaptation actions but lack further explanation and details on the way these should be implemented.
Theoretical reviews/ insights on adaptation Literature and theoretical reviews or insights on climate change adaptation as a general practice. Reviews on some adaptive actions or aspects of climate change adaptation that do not specify the location and/or guidelines for their implementation. Reviews on barriers and challenges for implementation of climate change adaptation. Articles focusing on adaptation without enough information to answer the questionnaire. Articles examining current adaptation policies without making a contribution for improvement.

Sustainability
Articles focusing on programs, processes and ideas on sustainability without an explicit focus on climate change adaptation.
3.2 Document review 390 documents were retained for full review (see supplementary materials, supplement A). A questionnaire was applied to each document and focused on: general characteristics of the articles (year of publication, authorship, and category of adaptation initiatives); and nature of the adaptation initiative (groundwork or concrete actions, stimulus motivating the adaptation initiative, who or what is adapting, and the details of the adaptation initiatives). Once concrete and groundwork actions were separated, groundwork actions were grouped in 8 categories: 1) impact and vulnerability assessments, 2) research on adaptation options, 3) conceptual tools, 4) stakeholder perspectives and networking opportunities, 5) recommendations for adaptation actions, 6) modelling that evaluates or/and suggests climate change adaptation, 7) economic analysis focused on adaptation, and 8) policy and framework reviews that suggest adaptation.

Reporting on adaptation is increasing
Reporting on adaptation in Australia in the peer-reviewed literature has increased over the past ten years, consistent with trends observed in other countries (Ford et al. 2014). In particular, there was a sharp increase in adaptation reporting observed from 2009 onwards, which may partially be explained by the establishment of the NCCARF in 2008 and the publication of project findings that followed (Fig. 2)   to adapt infrastructure to deal with extreme events (i.e. cyclones and storms) have been modelled to assess costs-benefits and efficiency (e.g. Li and Stewart 2011). Twelve of the articles from category 6 also focus on modelling the economics of adaptation, which also accounts for 60% of category 7.
Articles that focus on impact, risk, vulnerability and/or adaptive capacity assessments (category 1) are the third most frequently reported groundwork action, making up 17% (n=66) of all included articles. Within this category the primary focus is identifying how climate change is affecting socio-ecological systems and adaptation options (e.g. Johnson and Welch 2016). Some of the studies in this category seek to measure and quantify risk (e.g. Singh et al. 2017), while others aim to characterize how climate change is experienced and responded to in a specific sector (e.g. infrastructure, agriculture, fisheries, health) or among a group of people (e.g. Bradley et al. 2015).
Several studies use integrated assessments that consider how socio-economic and cultural factors influence how people experience and respond to climate change (e.g. Bardsley and Wiseman 2012). Within category 1 there are also studies that seek to advance climate change adaptation research by developing frameworks for assessing climate change impacts and vulnerability (e.g. Chen et al. 2015).

Reporting on adaptation is geographically focused on eastern Australia
Reported concrete adaptation actions are primarily from eastern Australia, with a concentration in New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland. Of the 57 articles reporting concrete adaptation actions, 56% (n=32) concentrate on at least one of the three states, with 14% (n=8) reporting on concrete actions in two or all three states. The same is true for groundwork adaptation actions (Fig. 4). Of the 378 articles reporting groundwork adaptation actions, 40% (n=154) concentrate on at least one of these three states, with 16% (n=60) reporting on groundwork actions in two or all three states. Queensland. In addition to these three states, the primary geographic focus of 15% (n=17) of literature reporting on adaptation and agriculture is the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), which covers an area that crosses between South Australia, New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland. In total, 18.7% (n=73) or all included articles focus on adaptation and agriculture in one or multiple of these four states.
In the MDB specifically, climate change has already been documented and includes extreme weather events (i.e. droughts), changes in precipitation patterns, and warmer temperatures with adverse effects on agricultural quality and production (Loch and Adamson 2015).

Discussion
The findings of this review provide compelling evidence against the hypothesis that Australia is a laggard in climate change adaptation. It is notable that most of the reported climate change adaptation initiatives in Australia can be grouped as groundwork actions, with a focus on documenting stakeholder perspectives on climate change and their attitudes towards adaptation, and scenario planning and/or modelling.
These actions are precursors to the more tangible, concrete actions, which have been the focus of previous reviews. This finding tells us that the Australian government and research community are indeed advanced in adaptation planning for climate change, having generated a substantive body of useable science related to climate change and adaptation issues, and are well positioned to advance the research agenda from adaptation preparation to implementation.
The finding that government funding for adaptation research influences adaptation reporting is significant. Many people, communities, industries and governments deal with changing climatic conditions on a daily basis, without labelling or reporting their actions as adaptation per se. To track adaptation, actions need to be recorded, which is often done through research. This reinforces the importance of funding for climate change adaptation research that results in measureable outputs like peer-reviewed publications. Furthermore, reviews of climate change adaptation should be performed periodically and capture the longest time-scale possible since adaptation is an on-going and iterative process.
The review shows that Australia shares most of the characteristics for climate change adaptation identified in developed nations outlined by Ford et al. (2011).
Nonetheless, adaptation in Australia has its singularities: while in other developed nations climate change adaptation is dominated by actions in the infrastructure, transportation and utilities sectors, Australia has a stronger focus on agriculture and freshwater management. This is likely a reflection of the pre-adaptation state of the nation's climate, being the driest inhabited continent globally and exposed to long periods of drought.
A limitation of this review is the exclusive focus on peer-reviewed literature. It is acknowledged that not all adaptation efforts are captured in the peer-reviewed literature and thus some were surely missed in this study. The findings are thus best characterized as providing a proxy of the state of adaptation in Australia from the perspective of the peer-reviewed literature.
The findings of this review are significant as they help us to better understand how climate change adaptation is happening in Australia at a time when tracking adaptation is critical in national and international climate change financing and decision-making. A misrepresentation of the state of adaptation in a particular place, in this case Australia, risks negating important steps needed to formulate sustainable adaptation actions from policy-making processes and could lead to maladaptation (Magnan et al. 2016). This review not only provides a proxy of the state of adaptation in Australia from the perspective of the peer-reviewed literature, but it also shows publishing gaps that need to be filled to provide a more complete characterisation of how Australia is adapting to climate change.