The Impact of Climate Change ( some Element ) on Field Crops in Baghdad Province

The study aimed to analyze the impact of climate change, which included elements {actual brightness, degrees of normal temperature and the maximum and minimum, wind speed, relative humidity, rainfall, evaporation} in the change of field crops and its implications in the province of Misaan, and the impact of those changes in the area and the yields and production of selected agricultural crops They {wheat, barley, rice, maize } has been relying in this study on the data of Two weather stations are (Misaan ,AL hay) for the period (19602014), it has been the general trend and the rate of change coefficient the annual rate of change during the duration of the study for an average of different climatic elements, showing the direction of the solar brightness in all stations downward direction different temperatures upward ranged Other elements between the rise and fall according to the stations on the impact of this rise and fall with the climate elements on an area and yields and production of field crops, which include each of wheat, barley, rice, maize.


133
obtained by studying the layers of land, glaciers, polar ice sheets, tree rings, and the remains of plants and animals from some epochs is taken as evidence of climate change (2) , The research revolves around climate change, and studies show that the change in the climate of the globe is caused by a major factor is the human factor, and natural factors did not play any role in making these changes (3) , There is very high confidence that the net release of human activities since 1970 is a cause of warming, and it is very likely that most of the observed increase in average temperatures since the mid-20th century is due to greenhouse gas concentrations (4) .
Statistical methods are one of the most important methods used to highlight climate change, so we will rely on the use of the general trend and rate of change in order to clarify the changes in climate elements , in the study area (Trend Detection ) The overall trend of annual time series averages (for climate elements) was calculated, and the trend coefficient was expressed as a percentage of all variables in climate elements. As well as for annual rates of change )Annuals Change) According to the following equation (5) : C = ( bi / y ) * 100 (C = annual rate of change, bi = trend coefficient, Y = arithmetic mean) bi = can be extracted from the following equation (6) (bi) (*7) First: the change and the general trend of the annual rate in the elements of the climate of the province of Baghdad 1: Change and overall trend of the annual average rate of hours of actual solar brightness: It is clear from The rate of change for the duration of the study was extracted by multiplying the annual rate of change in the number of years, So The trend coefficient was extracted by EXCEL, and the time series can be divided in half and subtracting the second medium -the first medium, and the second time -the first time (years). and that the general trend coefficient for the average hours of actual solar brightness (hour / day) tends to decrease in all stations with negative and annual rate of change. (-0.243, -0,119%) for stations (architecture, neighborhood) respectively and at a rate of change during the study period (-11.1, -4.2%) for stations (architecture, neighborhood) respectively, and recorded the highest amount of decreasing in brightness hours Al-Amarah plant (-11.1%) while the lowest decrease in the neighborhood (-4.2%). We note the decrease of the actual solar brightness in the studied stations and this indicates a decrease in the actual solar brightness. The effect of atmospheric pollutants (aerosol Aersol) that is emitted into the atmosphere due to different human activities and the impact of the blackout phenomenon on the natural vegetation of it or agricultural through its impact on the process of photosynthesis in the plant and thus reduced production as well Woody to decrease the amount of evaporation from water and land surfaces and also cause a decrease in the amount of rain falling as they affect the change recipes Cloud (8) . 135 2-The general change and trend of the average annual average normal temperature (° C): It can be seen from Table (2) and Fig. (2) that the general trend coefficient for the average normal temperature (m) tends to rise by a positive amount in the study stations and at an annual rate of change of (0.11, 0.198%) for Baghdad and Hilla stations respectively, and at a rate of change for a period of The study (%) of (5,3, 11,3) for the same stations respectively, and the highest amount of change in height was recorded in (Hilla) station by (11.3%), while the lowest amount of change was recorded in (Baghdad) station by (5, 3%), that this increase in the average temperature is due to global warming and this is what was stated in the International (Ipcc) reports on climate change for the year 2001, meaning that the study area has been affected by global warming as a result of the high percentage of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, especially (CO2) . Table (2) The rate of change (%), the annual rate of change, and the general trend of the average normal temperature (° C).  Source: based on Table (2). 3: The general change and trend of the average annual average maximum temperature (° C): It can be seen from Table (3) and Figure (3) that the general trend coefficient for the average maximum temperature tends to rise by a positive amount in all stations, with an annual rate of change of (0.07, 136 0.096, 0.1183, 0.129%) and a rate of change of (%) of (3,9, 5,1) for study stations (Baghdad and Hilla) respectively. The highest amount of change was recorded in the rise in (Hilla) station by (5.1%), while the lowest amount of change was recorded in (Baghdad) station by (3.9%). This increase in maximum temperatures is due to global warming. We conclude from this that the rate Maximum temperatures have increased in the study area. As for the relationship between the phenomenon of solar dimming and global warming, it is assumed that the temperatures tend to decrease due to the phenomenon of solar blackout, but the main reason for raising the temperatures is global warming. The researchers indicated that the cooling resulting from the phenomenon of blackout The solar system is less than the heating caused by the phenomenon of global warming, for this reason, the global temperature tends to rise, i.e. increase.   Hilla) with an annual rate of change of (0.233, 0.282%) and a rate of change of (%) of ( 8,12,9) for study stations (Baghdad and Hilla) respectively, and the 137 highest amount of change in height was recorded in (Baghdad) station by (12.9%), while the lowest amount of change was recorded in (Hilla) station by (8,8). %) And we conclude that the trend coefficient for the average minimum temperature (M o) tends to rise by a positive amount higher than the normal and maximum temperatures.    Second: The effect of climate change on the area and average production and productivity of field crops The effect of climatic changes on the area, yield and productivity of field crops in Baghdad, which includes both grain crops. Herbal plant species that are grown for their starchy grains and are used in human and animal food such as wheat, barley, rice and yellow corn. Yellow, the second classification is according to the growing season. Grains are classified into winter crops that are grown in the fall and grow in the winter, such as wheat and barley, and summer crops need high temperatures, i.e. higher than the previous ones. They are grown in the spring and grow in the summer, like yellow corn. The second type One of the field crops is the fibrous crops that are grown in order to obtain their fiber, and I will deal with the cotton crop (9) . The other part of the field crops is the oil crops that are grown for the purpose of

139
obtaining the seeds from which the oil is extracted. Oil is used in the industry for various purposes, including making soap, dyes, and engine oil as it is used For medicinal purposes and pest control, the oil of these crops is edible, and among these crops is sesame, and for the purpose of knowing the effect of the change On these crops, the percentage of change in area and average yield and productivity of the crop during the period (1960-2014) was extracted and matched to the climatic period. We find that there are crops that witnessed a positive compound growth rate and another that witnessed a negative compound growth rate, as shown in Table ( That the amount of change during the period of growth of the wheat crop tends towards a negative change in the study area, that the negative and positive changes of the climatic elements will have an effect on the expansion and diminution of the area cultivated for the wheat crop, the yield and the production, despite the variation in the amount of the wheat crop area, and with reference to Table (1) The actual hours of brightness were diminishing, as was the wind speed in Table (5) during the growing season. As for the temperature, especially the maximum, its direction was towards an increase in Table (3). The skin and the vessels of the transporter, when the temperature decreases, causes an increase in the viscosity of the protoplasm, and the opposite occurs at higher temperatures, as the viscosity of the protoplasm decreases. At very high temperatures, the protoplasm coagulates and the cells die. In addition to the natural factor, there are some human factors that affected the cultivated area during the period (1980)(1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985)(1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990). The reason is due to the Iran-Iraq war that forced many farmers to leave farming and become preoccupied with war and this contributed to the deterioration of agricultural lands, and on the contrary, the area of land increased during (1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000) and due to the conditions of the siege that prompted the state to follow the state's policy that encourages farmers to plant strategic crops, the most important of which is the wheat crop, as it is the main food for the population. The expansion of the cultivated area and the increase in the amount of production does not necessarily mean an increase in the average yield because the climatic conditions have a direct effect on the crop. By means of increasing the cultivated area itself, increasing the cultivated area does not necessarily mean increasing the amount of production, it means the expansion of irrigation agriculture and the increase in pressure on surface water resources, means the expansion of irrigation agriculture and the increase of pressure on surface water resources.
The rice crop has witnessed a negative change in the area, yield and productivity of the crop, but its cultivation has disappeared in recent years, due to the effect of the crop by changes in the direction of negative or positive climatic elements (10) . The solar radiation has tended towards negative change in most of the months of the growth season in the study area represented in Table (1) Light is considered one of the main factors affecting rice production, and the appropriate limit for rice is between 9-12.5 hours. As for the maximum temperature, a positive change was recorded in the study area during 10  the months that represent the period of growth of the rice crop, Tables  (4,3,2). The stigmas wither and the plant becomes impotent to pollination, especially if it is accompanied by dry and hot winds and insufficient water, and the plant stops growing at a temperature of 45 ° C and more, and this is what happens in June, July and August when temperatures rise. As for the maize crop, it achieved a positive change in the area, production and yield of the yellow maize crop, and by reference to the climatic factors, we find that the climatic changes represented by the decrease in the number of hours of actual brightness and the increase in the minimum and maximum temperatures had a positive effect on the yellow maize crop because it is a hot plant crop that requires temperatures It is high, which has a role in the speed of plant growth, and thus the incidence of disease decreases, and this is reflected in the increase in production and this average yield on one side and on the other hand, corn plant is considered one of the short day plants (8)(9) hours. The trend in the number of hours of actual brightness was negative, in addition to other human factors represented by the use of modern methods in agriculture, such as selecting good varieties, using modern irrigation methods and controlling pests, and the yellow corn crop is increasing its production capacity and adapting to different climatic conditions, while the cotton and sesame crops achieved an average Positive compound growth in both area cultivated and average yield and production for the period (1960-2014).

Conclusions:
1-The study demonstrated that there are changes in the path of the climatic elements in the Baghdad station and the selected stations, which lasted for a period of time (1960 -2014). They can be considered a clear indicator of the occurrence of climate change if this trend continues in the future. 2-The presence of a declining trend for the actual solar brightness by (-11,1, -4,2%) in the stations Baghdad and Hilla, respectively. 3-The presence of a trend towards an increase in the normal air temperature in the Hilla station and the selected stations, by (-5,3, -11,3) in the Baghdad and neighborhood stations respectively, as well as the existence of a trend towards an increase in the maximum temperature in the study stations and the rate of change reached ( -3,9 -5,1) respectively, as well as the existence of a rise towards the lower temperature in Baghdad station and the control station, and the rate of change reached (-12,9, 8,8-) Baghdad and Hilla stations respectively. 4-There was a trend towards a decrease in the average wind speed in the study stations (Baghdad and Al-Hillah), and the rate of change was (-22.1, -25.8), respectively.