Long Term Power Generation Planning Under Uncertainty

Thumbnail Image
Date
2009-01-01
Authors
Jin, Shan
Major Professor
Advisor
Sarah M. Ryan
Committee Member
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Altmetrics
Authors
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Is Version Of
Versions
Series
Department
Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering
Abstract

Generation expansion planning concerns investment and operation decisions for different types of power plants over a multi-decade horizon under various uncertainties. The goal of this research is to improve decision-making under various long term uncertainties and assure a robust generation expansion plan with low cost and risk over all possible future scenarios. In a multi-year numerical case study, we present a procedure to deal with the long term uncertainties by first modeling them as a multidimensional stochastic process and then generating a scenario tree accordingly. Two-stage stochastic programming is applied to minimize the total expected cost, and robust optimization is further applied to reduce the cost variance. Results of experiments on a realistic case study are compared. An efficient frontier of the planning solutions that illustrates the tradeoff between the cost and risk is further shown and analyzed.

Comments
Description
Keywords
Citation
Source
Subject Categories
Copyright
Thu Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2009