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Giving Credit Where Credit Is Due: Causal Impacts of Reverse Transfer Associate Degrees on Education and Labor-Market Outcomes (Poster 5)

Taylor K. Odle Lauren C. Russell

University of Pennsylvania

Issue and Policy Solution

77% of community college students intend to transfer to a 4-year and earn a BA, but less than 14% succeed^1,2

42% who transfer do so before they earn an A.A. or certificate²

Unless they persist, they are in an "all or nothing" position with many 2- and 4-year credits but no degree³

Reverse transfer (RT) policies combine
those 2- and 4-year credits to award students an AA en route to the BA

At least 15 states have RT policies⁴

OPEN

Prior Work and RQs

Prior descriptive works point to large impacts on BA attainment (10-32%), but these are limited by

Endogeneity (student self-selection)
Identification (RT AA versus other AA)
Correlational techniques (logit, PSM)^5,6

There is no causal evidence to guide the design and operation of RT policies

We ask whether RT degrees impact students'

Short- or medium-term academic outcomes: GPA, credits attempted, credits earned, and BA completion
Short- or medium-term labor market outcomes: Employment, employment intensity, and earnings

OPEN

Data

P20 Connect TN Longitudinal Data System

Universe of public K12 students through any in-state college enrollment
Student-semester-institution records on enrollment, GPA, credits, degrees, etc.
Quarterly UI records on employment and wages mapped to academic years

Tennessee Reverse Transfer System

Student's RT eligibility, opt-in/out decision, and degree result

Data matched at student level, covering 2010-11 through 2020-21

Analytic sample focuses exclusively on students who opted-in to RT (n=9,194)

OPEN

Empirical Strategy

Difference-in-Differences: Compare outcomes for RT recipients (eligible cohorts) to RT non-recipients (ineligible) over time

Term GPA and Credits\(y_{it}=\delta RT_{it}+\sum_{t=-5}^{3}\theta_tI_t+\textbf{X}_{it}^{'}\beta+\alpha_i+\phi_t+\epsilon_{it}\)
Cohort Bachelor's Degree Attainment\(y_{ic}=\gamma RT_{ic}+\varphi Eligible_i+\textbf{X}_{i}^{'}\beta+\mu_c+u_{ic}\)
Yearly Employment and Wages
\(y_{ist}=\sigma_1RT_{it}\times EnrollUniv_{ist}+\sigma_2RT_{it}\times NotEnroll_{ist}\)
\(+ \sum_{t=-5}^{5}\theta_tI_{st}+\textbf{X}_{ist}^{'}+\alpha_i+\phi_{st}+\varepsilon_{ist}\)

OPEN

Results

Reverse transfer associate degrees have minimal-at-best impacts on outcomes

Receipt of (or eligibility for) a RT AA is associated with

0.04-point increase in GPA
Precise zero change in BA attainment
Modest 3-4 point increase in employment if no longer enrolled
No robust impacts on earnings (<5%)

Why might RT AAs not "work?"

Already-successful, motivated population
99% of awards are in liberal arts/studies, which have minimal labor market benefits⁷

OPEN

Implications

No negative impacts is a positive finding

Evidence does not support elimination of RT degrees. Students earned these degrees, and they (and institutions) may benefit.

Policymakers should consider benefit-cost of RT programs, carefully establish eligibility, and consider expanded majors/awards given program goals

More causal evidence is needed

OPEN

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REFERENCES

¹ Jenkins, D., & Fink, J. (2016). Tracking transfer: New measures of institutional and state effectiveness in helping community college students attain bachelor’s degrees. Community College Research Center, Teachers College, Columbia University. https://ccrc.tc.columbia.edu/publications/tracking-transfer-institutional-state-effectiveness.html

²Shapiro, D., Dundar, A., Huie, F., Wakhungu, P.K., Yuan, X., Nathan, A. & Hwang, Y. (2021). Tracking transfer: Measures of effectiveness in helping community college students to complete bachelor’s degrees (Signature Report No. 13—2021 Update for the Fall 2014 Cohort). National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. https://nscresearchcenter.org/tracking-transfer/

³Bragg, D.D., Cullen, D.P., Bennett, S., & Ruud, C.M. (2011). Midpoint credentials for students who stop short of the baccalaureate degree. Office of Community College Research and Leadership, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. https://occrl.illinois.edu/docs/librariesprovider2/cwid/all_or_nothing.pdf

⁴Anderson, L. (2015). Reverse transfer: The path less traveled. Education Commission of the States. https://www.ecs.org/clearinghouse/01/18/77/11877.pdf

⁵Giani, M.S., Taylor, J.L., & Kauppila, S. (2021). Examining the educational and employment outcomes of reverse credit transfer. AERA Open, 7(1), 1-15.

⁶Taylor, J.L., & Giani, M. (2019). Modeling the effect of the reverse credit transfer associate’s degree: Evidence from two states. The Review of Higher Education, 42(2), 427-455.

⁷Bahr, P. R., Dynarski, S., Jacob, B., Kreisman, D., Sosa, A., & Wiederspan, M. (2015). Labor market returns to community college awards: Evidence from Michigan. New York: Center for the Analysis of Postsecondary Education and Employment (CAPSEE) Working Paper.

⁴Anderson, L. (2015). Reverse transfer: The path less traveled. Education Commission of the States. https://www.ecs.org/clearinghouse/01/18/77/11877.pdf

⁵Giani, M.S., Taylor, J.L., & Kauppila, S. (2021). Examining the educational and employment outcomes of reverse credit transfer. AERA Open, 7(1), 1-15.

⁶Taylor, J.L., & Giani, M. (2019). Modeling the effect of the reverse credit transfer associate’s degree: Evidence from two states. The Review of Higher Education, 42(2), 427-455.

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Giving Credit Where Credit Is Due: Causal Impacts of Reverse Transfer Associate Degrees on Education and Labor-Market Outcomes (Poster 5)

Taylor K. Odle Lauren C. Russell

University of Pennsylvania

Issue and Policy Solution

Prior Work and RQs

Data

Empirical Strategy

Results

Implications

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