THE LEVEL OF COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES OF WORLD MAIN COFFEE PRODUCERS Tingkat

The rate of world coffee production growth tends to decrease compared to the growth rate of world coffee consumption. This is due to the decline of coffee production in some major producing countries. This has an impact on the quantity of exported coffee to meet the demand of world's coffee. This paper analyzed the level of competition among major producing countries in five periods of time using the analysis of RCA and DRCA. The results showed that during the period 2001-2003,the average growth of competitiveness among countries was found to be the highest compared to other periods. This was due to a significant increase in export from Honduras which affected the value of RCA. During the period 2012-2015, Colombia became a country that achieved the highest growth rate of competitiveness due to the significant increase in the number of export. Change in competitiveness can affect the export market position of a country. During the period 20122015, the decline in market shared occurred in Vietnam, Ethiopia, India, Honduras, Guatemala, and Peru, while the increasing market share occurred in Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia, and Uganda. Indonesia’s position in the world coffee in 2015 was at failing stars in which the coffee share in that country was higher than in the world market. Increased


INTRODUCTION
The growth of world coffee consumption was faster than the world coffee production during the period of 2012/2013-2015/2016(ICO, 2016)).
The level of world production experienced a decrease of 1.89 percent during that period, while the world consumption growth increased by 4.08 percent.In 2015/2016, coffee production in the world reached 147 994 (000 bags) while the world consumption of coffee reached 151 303 (000 bags).
The decrease ofthe world coffee production was due to the decline of production in the main coffee producers including Brazil, Colombia, and Indonesia (ICO, 2016).In fact, the increase of coffee consumption was caused by several reasons, such as: (1) the growth of coffee consumption in some countries (e.g.Russia, Eastern Europe, China), (2) changes in cultural pattern of drinking coffee, that is from conventional system (drip coffee) to modern pattern (espresso), (3) an increase in living standard and life style which promote the increasing consumption of coffee in some producing countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Vietnam, and India (GAEKI, 2014).
The biggest robusta coffee producer during the growing season of2015/2016 was dominated by Brazil which amounted to 2,905, 380 tons.
Brazil produces two types of coffee, namely Arabica and Robusta, yet Arabica production is far higher than that of Robusta.Brazil becomes the world biggest of Arabica coffee producer for its successful programs to enhance the productivity, thus resulted in increasing production (Kustiari, 2007).Besides, there are some Arabica coffee producing countries, among others, Colombia, Ethiopia, Honduras, Guatemala, and Peru (ICO, 2016) The second biggest world producing country is Vietnam in which Robusta coffee is mostly produced.This brings Vietnam as the biggest Robusta coffee producer in the world reaching 1,650,000 tons in 2015-2016.Other Robusta coffee producers are Indonesia, India, and Uganda (ICO,2016).
Indonesia produces
Generally, some of the world major producing countries can meet the domestic need of each country.
Moreover, the surplus of coffee production in each country will be Azhar, 2011).The higher the coffee production the higher the amount of coffee that can be exported.In addition, the existence of a country's tariff policy has an impact on the amount of coffee exports (Kustiari, 2007).Another factor is that the membership of export destination countries in the World Trade Organization has a positive impact on the export volume (Meiri, 2013)   (5.31 percent).This is due to the slow growth of the area with the 0.63 percent per year rate so that the increase in coffee production tends to be low.

Figure 5. Average RCA Growth of Each Country Per Year
Source: UN Comtrade (2017), processed was higher than the growth of world coffee export share (Figure 6).
The growth of Honduras coffee export was the highest among other countries, while Guatemala had the lowest one.However, during the period 2006-2009, the quantity of Ethiopian coffee export had increased which led to higher growth than that of the world coffee export.This situation occurred was due to declining coffee share in exporting country which was lower than coffee share in the world market.During that period, they were only Honduras and Guatemala which obtained increasing RCA.Honduras was at failing stars in which the coffee share in that country was higher than coffee share in the world market that experienced a decline (Table 3).Furthermore, Guatemala was at lagging retreat in which decrease in coffee export in that country was higher than the decreasing export in the world market.
In Period 2 (2003)(2004)(2005)(2006), there were some countries considered to achieve rising stars i.e.Vietnam, Indonesia, and Guatemala.In that condition, coffee share in each country exported to various export destination countries.During 2000-2015,there was an increase in the world coffee export by 31.49percent with the export growth rate of 4.70 percent per year.fluctuations in the value of exports of coffee in international trade can not be separated from the competitive and comparative advantage which are deeply affected each other (Baroh et al., 2014).Fluctuation of coffee export quantity in several major exporting countries for the last fifteen years is expected to support a country position in facing the competition with other major exporters.The number of fluctuating exports is due to supply and demand factors (Krugman & Obstfeld, 2005; Salvatore, 1997).The supply factors are production quantity, export price, domestic price, exchange rate, raw material import, and policy.The price of coffee and the price of production means such as fertilizer can affect the amount of coffee production (Luthfi & ..............................(1) ..................................................................country in the condition of rising stars.This happens because the increase of certain commodity export share in a country is bigger than the increase of world export market share.Under these conditions, a country has the ability to increase the export destination market and even open up new markets.

Figure 2 .
Figure 2. Five Major Robusta and Arabica Exporting Countries in the World Source : ICO, 2016

Figure
Figure 4. Export Market Share of World Coffee in 2015 Source : UN Comtrade (2017), processed

Figure 6 .
Figure 6.RCA Dynamics ofWorld Major Coffee Exporting Countries in Five Periods of Time Source: UN Comtrade (2017), processed was higher than the coffee share of the world.This position is the most wanted position by each country in facing competition between countries involved.In addition, those countries tried to increase market share through quality improvement.There was a development of coffee quality to increase the export market and domestic consumption (Arifin, 2013).This condition was seen by increasing RCA value.The value of DRCA was the highest among those three countries, namely Indonesia with the value of 0.195.It was indicated by the growth of export quantity which amounted to 28.3 percent at the same period.During this period, several other coffee exporting countries also suffered from declining RCA which reflected changes in competitiveness, included Brazil, Colombia, Ethiopia, India, Honduras, Uganda, and Peru.
Compared to the previous period where increase and decrease in RCA value existed, during the period 3 (2006-2009), ten coffee exporters faced declining RCA.This decrease in RCA was seen from the result of DRCA analysis.Declining RCA occurred along with the condition of lagging opportunity which was faced by Brazil, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and Peru.In that condition, the increase in coffee share of each country was lower than that of the world.Moreover, decreasing RCA also occurred in Vietnam, Colombia, India, Honduras, Uganda, and Guatemala with position of lost opportunity.This position was shown by declining coffee share in each country which was lower than increase in the world coffee share.It shows that faced leading retreat in which there was declining RCA that was reflected by the situation where the decrease of Indian coffee share was lower than that of in the world coffee share.This finding was diverse from the previous period where India experienced rising stars of the increase in coffee export value as much as 136.5 percent during the period 2009-2012.However, this country was suffered from decreasing export coffee with the value of 12.26 percent during the period 2012-2015.This situation led to quite significant change in position of India in the coffee market.In general, other coffee exporting countries such as Brazil, share.Indonesia was able to compete with Vietnam and Guatemala in that period which were equally positioned as rising stars.Indonesia was also able to open new export markets such as in East Asia.and superior seed which is appropriate to agro climate of each production center area in each country.It is also essential to perform coffee plant pruning in some countries that have old coffee plant to increase the production and encourage the export.It is necessary to improve the quality of coffee export through the treatment improvement of harvested coffee beans.A country can increase export market share in new destination countries which have a potential market.