COVID-19 and Its Impacts on Talent Mobility in China

COVID-19 has caused countries around the world to close their doors and put strict measures on the mobility of people across geographical boundaries. What will be the impact on highly skilled talent? We address this important question by exploring the experiences of European researchers in China during COVID-19. We do so by utilising the newest unique data gathered in a survey by EURAXESS, which reports that 47% of the European researchers in China left due to the outbreak. We complement this with archive data, interviews, and COVID-19 regulations to discuss and forecast future scenarios for talent mobility to and from China.


Introduction
In a recent article, Liu, Lee, and Lee (2020) highlight how the COV-ID-19 pandemic is already having severe effects on both the global economy and global value chains. They emphasise that it is still too soon to draw definite conclusions concerning the consequences of the pandemic. However, they still point out an emerging trend, which shows that global supply chains are decoupling from China because of the pandemic. Moreover, they argue that this is happening in a time when there is a drastic reduction of air travel as well as severe travel restrictions (Liu, J.M. Lee, C. Lee 2020). In this chapter, we continue the discussion of migration and travel restrictions by exploring the effects of the pandemic on talent mobility amongst European researchers in China. Talent attraction policies have become increasingly important globally (OECD 2008). This has opened doors for academics around the world, only to come to a rapid halt because of COVID-19. The transformative issues arising in academia are highlighted in a recent series of articles published in Nature entitled "Science after the pandemic" (Witze 2020). The series explores some of the dramatic changes that have occurred in academia resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak. These issues include topics such as: what will happen to the nature of conferences, travel, and mobility? (Viglione 2020); what is occurring at now empty campuses? (Witze 2020); and how might publications change? (Callaway 2020). But they also deal with the effect on Chinese academia, which otherwise seems to have been on the rise since China became amongst the leading funders of researchers and the leading producer of academic articles (Cyranoski 2020). In this chapter, we will discuss what is happening to foreign researchers in China. We will mainly look indepth at European researcher's experiences and discuss the impact on European and Chinese scientific collaborations.

Talent Mobility: Why It Matters
Global flows of talent have become an increasingly important element of globalisation (Liu 2019). Whether in the public or private sector, the recruitment of individuals that can make a difference in organisations have become one of the key challenges of the decade (Lee, Rezaei 2019). In an article published before the COVID-19 crisis, Janger and Nowotny (2016) explore academic job choices and the international mobility of talented researchers. They find that in general job choices in academia are driven by factors such as collaboration partners, research funding, and academic freedom rather than personal factors. The literature on talent mobility suggests that the US is the first destination country for researchers and that it attracts the most substantial flows of international talent, making it able to reap the innovative rewards that come with global talent (Kerr et al. 2016;European Commission 2017;Kerr 2018). However, other countries have caught up and developed talent attraction schemes of their own (Shachar 2006;Shachar, Hirschl 2013, 2015. These schemes are particularly prominent in academia and often considered beneficial as the mobility of researchers aids in the creation and the diffusion of knowledge, which is of significant importance to knowledge economies (OECD 2008).

Talent Mobility on the Rise in EU: China as a Partner or Competitor
In an EU context, the introductions of both the Marie Skłodowska-Curie actions programme and Euraxess have aimed to encourage mobility amongst researchers. Here it is argued that: [t]he main reason to foster geographic mobility lies in the fact that it is related to more intense knowledge flows through international collaboration and, as a consequence, increases scientific productivity which may, in turn, affect economic competitiveness. (European Commission 2017, 10) These reasons for fostering mobility in order to compete in global research goes beyond the interest of the EU. Concerns revolving around the opportunities as well as risks related to being at the front of the research stage or falling behind are shared by countries such as Brazil, South Korea, India, and China -all countries that have recently been boosting the mobility opportunities for researchers (European Commission 2017).

Talent Mobility in China: Traditionally a Brain Drain, But Becoming Competitive
As the world's largest transition economy, talent in science and technology is critical to the development of a flourishing knowledge economy for China (Liu, Fang 2019). Since the opening of the Chinese economy and the increased mobility of students as well as researchers, China has suffered from a significant brain drain. The state, universities, and scientific organisations have therefore been part of implementing measures on both a country and local level which aim at attracting first Chinese returnees (Zweig, Kang, Wang 2020) and increasingly also foreign talents (Miao, Wang 2017). These efforts have coincided with the increased quality and the improved ratings of Chi- nese universities as well as the development of Sino-Foreign universities (Wang, Chen 2020). Even though these efforts have been successful to a certain extent, the individual talents and researchers seem to remain mobile whether they are Chinese or foreigners (Mouritzen, Rezaei, forthcoming).This reveals an element of vulnerability in the talent flows towards China, so although the country fairs increasingly well in the global competition for human capital, according to the MORE3 survey (European Commission 2017) and OECD publications, China remains a relatively unattractive place for foreign talent (OECD 2013) as seen in the figure below.

Data and Methods
While the data revealed significant barriers to Europeans in China that remain relevant, new issues have arisen with the pandemic. In particular, we examined in-depth the 2020 survey conducted by Euraxess that has highlighted the new reality facing European talents in China after COVID-19. The material deriving from Euraxess is included as the organisation has a unique coverage within the community of European researchers in China. We complement the survey data with qualitative interviews collected by one of the authors of this paper during fieldwork in China before the pandemic and through online interviews with respondents after the pandemic, although the data collected after the pandemic is based on a smaller sample as many respondents were unavailable for various reasons connected to the pandemic. Finally, we draw upon recently published news and regulations.

COVID-19 Impact on Cross Border Mobility
As noted, the outbreak of COVID-19 considerably changed the academic reality globally. In China, the inflow of foreign talent has been limited, while the outflow seems to have increased during the pandemic. The challenges emerging because of COVID-19 are already influencing research activities conducted in China, particularly activities done by the group of foreign academics operating there, having forced many researchers to leave the country at least on a temporary basis. Thus, Euraxess China reports that as of March 6, 2020: When asked if they left China amid the virus outbreak, 47% of researchers replied positively; among these, 63% are not planning on returning to China or are uncertain when they will. (EU-RAXESS 2020) The impact on foreign talents' cross-border mobility was affected by travel restrictions imposed by the Chinese government since March 28, 2020 (The Foreign and Commonwealth Office 2020b, 2020a), 1 As stated below: In view of the rapid spread of COVID-19 across the world, China has decided to temporarily suspend the entry into China by foreign nationals holding visas or residence permits still valid to the time of this announcement, effective from 0 a.m., March 28 2020.
(Ministry of Foreign Affairs the People's Republic of China 2020) Foreign nationals returning to China for necessary "economic, trade, scientific or technological activities or out of emergency humanitarian needs" will however still need to apply for a visa in order to enter China at the Chinese embassies or consulates abroad and undergo a quarantine period, affecting the travellers for at least 14 days. 2 Moreover, there have also been severe restrictions on international flights, initiated on March 12, 2020 (Business Traveller 2020; Reuters 2020), so that only 20 international flights could land each day. 3 By the end of May, it was decided to maintain the restrictions with few exceptions (BBC 2020; Nikkei Asian Review 2020).
2 Travellers will be required to undergo strict testing and individuals will be subjected to a quarantine period of 14 days, although it is possible to enter into a fast-track option available to individuals from countries that have signed fast track agreements with China. However, this requires that the company ensures that the employer remains in a closed circuit or a sealed of environment for 14 days, where a designated driver transports the individual from their home residence to their workplace without this employee having any physical contact with other members of the staff or other parts of society (European Union Chamber of Commerce in China 2020a).
3 The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) further implemented changes that reduced air travel to and from China, taking affect from March 12, 2020. These changes included a reduction of international flights such that Chinese Airlines could only maintain one route to any country with no more than one flight per week. A similar rule affected foreign airlines that were only allowed to maintain a single route to China and only fly once per week. Moreover, the rules state that each flight must "ensure passenger load factor no higher than 75%" (CAAC 2020).

European Talents in China
The restrictions have particularly affected the foreign community of mobile expats in China, both those who left China at the onset of the pandemic and the ones who stayed behind. Nevertheless, they are only a part of the pandemic's transformational force that we will discuss later, relying on a survey developed and disseminated by Euraxess China where 46 European researchers based in China responded. The survey was an early response to the COVID-19 crisis, and some of the results were published on March 6, 2020 (EURAXESS 2020). Currently, we are working with Euraxess to develop and disseminate new material that will be available at a later stage. While the low numbers challenge the representativeness of the survey, the data is still a reliable indicator of changes affecting talent mobility. When asked "Is the novel coronavirus outbreak and the resulting prevention-and-control measures having any current impact on your work and research activities?", close to 75% of the respondents replied that it had a medium or high impact on their activities, as illustrated below.

Figure 2
Is the novel coronavirus outbreak and the resulting prevention-and-control measures having any current impact on your work and research activities? With 56% responding Yes, high impact, 30% responding Yes, medium impact, 6% Yes, low impact, 2% no impact and 4% responding not possible to evaluate now This finding resonates with qualitative interviews conducted amongst researchers based in China. Amongst these respondents, of which many are now living in Europe as they have been blocked from re-entering China, a variety of answers emerged. Researchers who for various reasons decided to stay in China reported that they faced empty campuses and closed laboratories where only they could come and go. While this situation seems to be the new normal which has spread to most of the universities of the world (Witze 2020), the group of researchers stuck outside of China have been affected in slightly differ-

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A New World Post COVID-19, 309-322 ent ways with online meetings that at times have to include people based in both the EU and America as well as China. Moreover, most communication seems to have moved online -both the communication between individuals, such as a student and supervisors, but also institutional communication. When asked "Are you and/or your institution introducing or planning on introducing new online tools (such as online classes, webinars, online meetings, and group works) as an alternative to the normal activities?", close to 80% of the respondents reported that they either had implemented new online tools or were working on implementing new measures.

Figure 3
Are you and/or your institution introducing or planning on introducing new online tools (such as online classes, webinars, online meetings, and group works) as an alternative to the normal activities? With 59% responding that Yes, we have launched new online activities/tools, 20% responding Yes, we are working on that and 22% responding no Like most institutions, Chinese universities have adapted to reality after COVID-19, and while it is still unknown what the exact effects of the pandemic will be on learning as well as migration, it is clear that university institutions across the globe are updating their teaching tools to address a new reality. In particular, the Sino Foreign Universities have reported challenges faced by their cohorts being scattered across the globe and their staff being unable to return to China [tab. 1]. Just like the challenges faced by the transnational institutions, individual researchers collaborating between China and Europe report that their collaborations have suffered during the pandemic. When asked "In case you are involved in collaborations between China and Europe, have they been affected in some way by the current outbreak?", a third of the respondents answered that it have had an impact, but that the impact is difficult to assess at the early stage, while another third replied that it already either had a medium or highly negative impact on their collaborations.

Figure 4
In case you are involved in collaborations between China and Europe, have they been affected in some way by the current outbreak? With 13% responding Yes, high negative impact, 28% responding Yes, medium impact, 33% responding Yes, but I cannot state what will be the impact, 4% responding No impact and 22% responding I'm not involved in any China-Europe collaboration

Conclusion
COVID-19 has abruptly put an end to talent mobility and talent flows. Early data suggests that research, teaching, and mutual collaboration shared by China and Europe will be significantly disadvantaged because of the pandemic. The barriers emerging include both travel restrictions and a significant reduction in the infrastructure that facilitates mobility across borders. This might have even stronger effects in the future by hampering students, researchers, and technicians from either entering a country in the first place or from returning to their country of origin. Moreover, teaching is changing significantly, and particularly transnational institutions are forced to apply online tools that may limit the exposure to other cultures and thereby hinder shared experiences in the time to come. Finally, it seems likely that collaborations across borders will be increasingly difficult to carry out. However, what this difficulty will mean for talent mobility and foreign talents spread out across the globe has yet to reveal itself fully. Therefore, questions relating to COVID-19's impact on talent mobility should be raised and answered based on in-depth empirical research.