PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN DI KOTA AMBON MENGGUNAKAN METODE HOLT-WINTERS EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
Abstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan curah hujan bulanan di Kota Ambon menggunakan metode Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data curah hujan bulanan pada periode Januari 2005 – Desember 2016. Data tersebut merupakan hasil pengamatan Stasiun Meteorologi Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika Ambon. Hasil analisis data menyatakan bahwa curah hujan bulanan di Kota Ambon mengandung pola musiman. Hasil penelitian ini menyatakan bahwa model Holt-Winter berdasarkan metode musiman perkalian merupakan modelyang sesuai untuk meramalkan data curah hujan bulanan di Kota Ambon karena memiliki nilai SSE/RMSE yang kecil.
Peramalan menggunakan model Holt-Winter menunjukkan bahwa curah hujan di Kota Ambon mengalami peningkatan pada tahun ke depan
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References
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