Estimates of the TTF Probability under the Conditions of a Partial Prior Uncertainty

Abstract

In the problem of estimating the reliability of many technical devices, we often meet a situation which is characterized by incomplete or partial prior uncertainty when the given a priori information doesn’t allow us to determine uniquely the prior distribution. The following example may be considered as typical for such a situation. We construct a system containing model elements produced by an industrial complex. We have catalogs with the values of failure rates for each model device. In accordance with the methods of Reliability Theory devoted to complicated multi element systems, one defines the TTF value of the model element during the given time interval. The obtained value is a priori for the TTF estimate with respect to a whole complex of the conducted measures and doesn’t allow us to form a prior distribution. We need to find a method of estimating TTF based on a pointwise a priori value and testing reliability results.