Research on Prediction of Transmission and Transformation Project Cost Index Based on ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing Models

Abstract

Reasonable prediction of transmission and transformation line project cost index is of important significance to control the project cost and improve investment efficiency and strengthen the project cost management of power grid enterprises. Selecting the appropriate models and methods to predict the trends of cost index has been a research focused on the power transmission and transformation project cost analysis. In this paper, regarding power transmission and transformation line project cost index from 2008 to 2012 in Zhejiang Province as the research object, estimate the cost index reasonably, and construct cost index analysis and prediction model based on ARIMA and exponential smoothing models, and then, realize the process of modeling and obtain forecast results through SPSS software, which have some references in the application of prediction method.