Program to ensure financial security of enterprises defense industrial complex

. Ukraine has a window of opportunity to restore the state of its defence industry on a qualitatively new basis, to provide the Armed Forces with high-tech weapons and technologies in accordance with NATO requirements. This is possible due to: the scale of Western partners' supply of modern high-tech weapons; establishing bilateral partnerships with NATO countries, the United States, the United Kingdom and individual European countries to ensure effective technology transfer; the interest of foreign investors in establishing joint ventures with Ukraine to produce high-tech weapons and military equipment; access to modern defence technologies; training of military leadership personnel in accordance with NATO requirements, gaining unique experience by the military in accordance with NATO standards. The subject of research in the article is theoretical and methodological approaches to the formation of a programme for ensuring the financial security of enterprises. The article is aimed at developing a scientific and methodological approach to the formation of a program for ensuring the financial security of enterprises of the military-industrial complex. The article uses a set of methods of scientific cognition that ensures the conceptual unity of the study. The methodological basis is the resource and functional approaches to the study of economic processes and phenomena, as well as the fundamental provisions of the theory of finance and probability theory and mathematical statistics. The method of adaptive forecasting is used to develop a scientific and methodological approach to the formation of a programme for ensuring the financial security of enterprises of the defence industry. The following results were obtained. The following results are obtained: The major threats of the external environment that may negatively affect the implementation of the programme for ensuring the financial security of enterprises in the future include: the risk of reducing the number of skilled workers, the risk of reduced demand for products, the risk of reducing the competitive position of enterprises in the domestic and foreign markets, the risk of a high level of tax burden.

Results of a research study.A reliable and adequate forecast is an effective tool that helps to respond to changes in a timely manner and prevent undesirable outcomes, which will help to improve the efficiency of crisis management at enterprises.
Forecasting the use of the anti-crisis programme at enterprises in the future is carried out taking into account the level of risk of failure to implement the anti-crisis programme in the future and the overall indicator of the enterprise's "viability" depending on the chosen anti-crisis programme.
Important parameters of the enterprise's activity, which can be used to assess the overall level of viability of the enterprise, are: production volumes, income, product prices, profit, cost, equity and borrowed capital, capital turnover, formed reserves, insurance reserves, accounts payable and receivable, cash availability, level of tax payments, labour productivity, state of material and technical support, internal standards of use of economic resources [7; 9].
The ratios of some of the above parameters represent various indicators of the "viability" of enterprises, including indicators of profitability, solvency, business activity, efficiency, and financial security.The first stage of the methodological approach to forecasting the use of an anticrisis programme at enterprises is to determine the coefficient of "viability" of an enterprise depending on the chosen anti-crisis programme.
The author proposes to determine the overall indicator of "viability" of an enterprise by calculating various components in the context of a specific anti-crisis programme.
The significance of the components of "viability" depending on the chosen anti-crisis programme at Ukrainian enterprises is presented in table 1.
The high level of significance of the indicator is 1, the medium level of significance -2, and the low level of significance -3.
If the company's management decides to conduct a preventive anti-crisis or risk protection programme based on the diagnostics, then when calculating the overall indicator of the company's "viability", the following indicators should be determined, first of all: profitability indicators; business activity indicators; competitiveness indicators; indicators that allow assessing the company's position in the securities market; financial stability indicators.This is because, in the absence of a crisis or a low probability of its occurrence, an enterprise is usually characterised by high internal potential, a sufficient level of financial stability, efficient use of existing production facilities and increased production volumes.The company's competitiveness is high.An effective pricing policy makes it possible to increase sales volumes, reduce production costs, generate high profits, and build up the necessary reserves and funds.The market price of corporate rights is generally rising, and capital investment has a quick return.
If management decides to implement a recovery and development programme or a programme to overcome crisis phenomena, it is advisable to calculate the economic efficiency of the programme by considering liquidity and solvency, financial stability, property status and profitability.This is because, in the presence of a crisis, an enterprise usually has low internal potential, low solvency, low labour productivity, and exhausted reserves.
In a protracted crisis, the company does not comply with internal standards for the use of economic resources, is characterised by a large share of borrowed funds, a general tendency to increase debt, overdue accounts payable and receivable, low equity, late payment of tax payments, expired licences, and outstanding loans.In order to calculate the overall viability indicator for a particular anti-crisis programme, it is necessary to normalise the indicators of the components of the company's viability, determine the weight of each component according to its importance, and then calculate the overall indicator (similar to the calculation of the integrated performance indicator of the financial security programme): , (1) where    -is the overall viability score; -Fishburne coefficient;   -normalised viability ratio.
The second stage of the methodological approach to forecasting the effectiveness of the financial security programme at enterprises is to determine the risk of its failure in the future, which includes the risks of negative impact of the internal and external environment.
One of the most effective methods of risk assessment at enterprises is the method of expert assessments.It makes it possible to assess informal situations when it is impossible to access internal non-public information of enterprises.
The purpose of the expert assessment is to identify the most significant risks that reduce the possibility of implementing the adopted financial security programme in the future.Anonymous questionnaires are used to obtain expert opinions, which increases the objectivity of the answers received.Risks of negative impact of the external environment are determined taking into account expectations based on statistical observations of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.
External expectations include: change (increase/decrease) in production volumes; change (increase/decrease) in the number of employees, outflow of skilled personnel; change in selling prices (increase/decrease) for products; change (increase/decrease) in demand for industrial products of enterprises; change in production capacities (sufficiency/insufficiency); change in the volume (increase/decrease) of capital investments; change (increase/decrease) in the competitive position of enterprises; change (increase/decrease) in innovation activity, development of technology, etc.The list of the above expectations can be expanded depending on the statistical information available to analysts.If external expectations are related to a positive change in various factors influencing the implementation of the enterprise's financial security programme in the future, they can be regarded as opportunities of the external environment.If external expectations are associated with a negative change in the factors of influence of the external environment on the implementation of the programme of ensuring the financial security of the enterprise, they can be considered as threats of the external environment.
A description of the identification of risks of environmental impact for forecasting the use of the financial security programme at enterprises in the future is presented in table 2.

Risks Description of the risk definition and description of the situation The risk of a decrease in production volumes
It is necessary to assess the change in production volumes at enterprises.Characteristics of the situation: expectations of production growth.The risk of a reduction in the number of employees, outflow of qualified personnel It is necessary to assess the change in the number of employees at enterprises.Characteristics of the situation: expectations of a decrease in the number of employees at enterprises.

Risk of decrease in selling prices for products
It is necessary to assess changes in selling prices for products.Characteristics of the situation: expectations of an increase in selling prices for the products of enterprises.

The risk of a decline in demand for industrial products
It is necessary to assess the change in demand for the products of enterprises.Situation description: the volume of foreign orders for the production of goods has decreased, the value of current demand and export demand for the products of enterprises is below the norm.The risk of a decrease in the volume of capital investments It is necessary to forecast changes in the volume of capital investment at enterprises.Situation description: there is an upward trend in capital investment at enterprises.

The risk of a decline in the competitive position of enterprises
Changes in the competitive position of enterprises should be assessed.Description of the situation: the competitive position of enterprises has deteriorated in the foreign and domestic markets, and the situation is expected to deteriorate in the future.

The risk of a decline in innovation activity and technology development
It is necessary to assess changes in innovation activity and technology development at enterprises.Situation description: expectations of increased innovation activity, introduction of new technological processes at enterprises (with innovation activity being financed mainly at the expense of enterprises' own funds).

High tax burden risk
It is necessary to analyse the level of tax burden on enterprises.Description of the situation: expectations of an increase in the tax burden on enterprises, difficulties in doing business in Ukraine.

Risk of insufficient infrastructure development
It is necessary to assess the level of infrastructure development in the region.Current situation: The infrastructure is at a satisfactory level, but needs to be developed.

Source: author's development
The risk of negative impact of the internal environment on the implementation of the anticrisis programme in the future should be assessed in the following areas: assessment of interest in the implementation of the anti-crisis programme; assessment of the company's adaptation to changes (provided for in the anti-crisis programme); assessment of the time available for the implementation of the planned anti-crisis measures; assessment of the availability of qualified personnel; assessment of the direction of changes; assessment of changes in the level of innovation; analysis of changes in the level of capital If internal expectations are associated with a positive change in various factors influencing the implementation of the enterprise's anti-crisis programme in the future, they can be regarded as strengths of the internal environment of the enterprise.If internal expectations are associated with a negative change in the factors of influence of the internal environment on the implementation of the company's anti-crisis programme, they can be considered as weaknesses of the internal environment of the company.Weaknesses of the internal environment and threats of the external environment together represent potential threats to Ukrainian enterprises regarding the failure to implement the anti-crisis programme in the future.
A description of the identification of risks of the internal environment for forecasting the use of the financial security programme at Ukrainian enterprises in the future is presented in table 3.
The risk of failure to implement the anti-crisis programme in the future includes a list of risks of influence of the external and internal environment of the enterprise.The closer the above risk is to 1, the better the company's anti-crisis programme will be implemented in the future, the closer it is to 0, the greater the likelihood of failure to implement the company's anti-crisis programme in the future.Enterprises that plan to develop in the future should be highly interested in making changes and implementing the adopted anticrisis programme The risk of slow adaptation of the enterprise to the implementation of the adopted changes Taking into account the size of the studied enterprises and the selected AP, the speed of the enterprise's adaptation to implementation of changes cannot be high (medium or low)

Risk of time pressure
It is necessary to forecast sufficient time to resolve the problematic issues envisaged by the anti-crisis programme

Risk of shortage of qualified personnel
It is necessary to analyse the outflow of highly skilled personnel, the structure of personnel by education level and age, and assess the level of labour productivity The risk of inconsistency of the change vector with the chosen anti-crisis programme of the enterprise It is necessary to assess the degree of compliance of the measures taken and changes at the enterprise with the chosen anti-crisis programme

Risk of changes in the level of innovation development
It is necessary to analyse whether the company is implementing innovations, updating technological processes, and establishing a quality and product certification system

Risk of changes in the level of investment
It is necessary to assess whether the company is experiencing an increase in capital investment The risk of insufficient development of industrial and social infrastructure It is necessary to analyse how well developed the production and social infrastructure is at the enterprise

Risk of insufficient internal funding sources
It is necessary to assess the availability of profit, equity, trace the trend in the degree of equity provision, assess how dependent the company is on external sources of financing Risk of insufficient provision of fixed assets It is necessary to assess the sufficiency of fixed production assets for production Source: author's development Table 4 assesses the risk of negative impact of the external and internal environments in order to predict the use of the financial security programme at enterprises.
Risks marked with a "+" sign mean a low risk or insignificant impact on the implementation of the adopted anti-crisis programme in the future.Risks marked with a "-" sign imply a moderate, significant and unacceptable impact and increase the risk of failure to implement the adopted anticrisis programme.
The assessment of risks of negative impact of the external environment was carried out by experts based on official data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and research papers [1; 2; 3; 4; 6; 8; 10; 11].It is recommended to identify the following types of risks at an enterprise: small; insignificant; moderate; significant; unacceptable.The above typification of risks is the basis of the methodology for calculating risk levels proposed by scientist B. I. Pshyk [5].
The major threats to the external environment that may adversely affect the implementation of the programme to ensure the financial security of enterprises in the future include: the risk of a decrease in the number of skilled workers, the risk of a decrease in demand for products, the risk of a decrease in the competitive position of enterprises in the domestic and foreign markets, and the risk of a high tax burden.
The opportunities in the external environment that may have a positive impact on the implementation of the anti-crisis programme at enterprises in the future include expectations of production growth, an increase in selling prices for enterprises' products, a rise in capital investment, and an increase in innovation activity.implemented in the future.The closer to 0 the value of the general indicator of forecasting the use of the financial security programme at enterprises approaches, the less likely it is that the adopted anti-crisis programme will be implemented effectively, which requires a review of the situation and the adoption of another anti-crisis programme.For example, if a company has adopted a preventive anti-crisis programme and then conducted a forecast and determined that the overall forecast indicator for the use of the anti-crisis programme to ensure financial security is close to 0, then it is necessary to use a risk protection programme rather than a preventive anti-crisis programme.
If the company has adopted a risk protection programme and then conducted a forecast and determined that the overall forecast indicator for the use of the financial security programme is close to 0, then the recovery and development programme should be used.If the company has adopted a recovery and development programme and then conducted a forecast and determined that the overall forecast indicator for the use of the financial security programme is close to 0, then the bankruptcy recovery programme should be used.
If the company has adopted a crisis management programme and, after the forecasting exercise, it is determined that the overall forecasting indicator for the use of the financial security programme is close to 0, it is necessary to urgently review the existing crisis management programme in order to take the most radical and effective measures to prevent the company's bankruptcy, and to consider the option of liquidating the company as one of the possible options.
The results of calculating the general indicator of forecasting the use of the financial security programme at enterprises are presented in table 7.
At enterprise № 1, it is advisable to use the selected risk protection programme with an emphasis on financial risk insurance, sale of surplus or unused assets, saving all types of resources, saving current costs and optimising them, maximising the internal capabilities of the enterprise, and carrying out preventive restructuring.The value of the indicator of forecasting the use of the financial security programme at enterprise № 2 is closest to 0. This means that this enterprise needs to take effective and radical anti-crisis measures to implement a programme to overcome the crisis.The researched enterprise should, first of all, carry out rehabilitation restructuring, liquidation of the portfolio of short-term financial investments, sale of highly liquid instruments of the portfolio of long-term financial investments, refinancing and restructuring of debt, sale of production facilities, excess inventories, and inventory items.
At enterprise № 3, the selected recovery and development programme should be completely revised and significant adjustments made to increase sales, accelerate capital turnover, strengthen internal control, optimise business processes, restore solvency, abandon inefficient investment projects, save resources, raise additional capital, and reduce the maturity of loans granted by the enterprise.
At enterprise № 4, the chosen programme for overcoming the crisis should be reviewed and adjustments made to raise additional capital, ensure maximum prepayment for the enterprise's products, restructure, liquidate the portfolio of short-term investments, sell highly liquid instruments of the portfolio of long-term investments, collect receivables at a discount, sell unused assets, excess inventory, and lease production assets.
Conclusion.The application of the recommended methodological approach to forecasting the use of the financial security programme is valuable for enterprises, as it allows predicting the use of the programme based on past trends in the economic development of the enterprise (the already selected programme) and possible potential threats in the future (risks of the external and internal environment).

Table 1 .
Significance of the parameters of ensuring the financial security of Ukrainian enterprises with regard to the selected programme

Table 3 .
Risks of the internal environment influence on forecasting the use of financial security programmes at Ukrainian enterprises in the future

Table 4 .
Results of assessing the impact of external and internal environment risks for forecasting the use of financial security programmes at the enterprises of the defence industry of Ukraine

Table 6 .
The procedure for calculating the general indicator of forecasting the use of the financial security programme at enterprises

Table 7 .
Results of calculating the general indicator of forecasting the use of the financial security programme at the enterprises of the defence industry of Ukraine Source: compiled on the basis of financial statements of enterprises