Mortality prediction with CHA2DS2-VASc, CHA2DS2-VASc-HS and R2CHA2DS2-VASc score in patients hospitalized due to COVID-19

F. Katkat, S. Karahan, S. Varol, M. Kalyoncuoglu, E. Okuyan

Bagcilar Education and Research Hospital, Cardiology Clinic, Istanbul, Turkey. didem_mls@hotmail.com

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• Infectious Diseases
• Public Health

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to test the efficiency of CHA2DS2-VASc, CHA2DS2-VASc-HS, R2CHA2DS2-VASc score systems on the prediction of mortality in the patients with COVID-19.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: The data were collected from 508 hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Comorbidity features including coronary artery disease, peripheral arterial disease, congestive heart failure, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, smoking, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cerebrovascular event, cancer status, and renal disease were recorded. The patients were divided as surviving group (n=440) and non-survivors (n=68).

RESULTS: The in-hospital mortality rate of the patients with COVID-19 was 13.4%. Factors found to be associated with mortality in univariate analysis were CHA2DS2-VASc, CHA2DS2-VASc-HS, R2CHA2DS2-VASc, cancer state, atrial fibrillation, hemoglobin, lymphocyte count, CRP, albumin and ferritin. Model 1 multivariate cox regression analysis revealed CHA2DS2-VASc, hemoglobin, CRP and ferritin levels to be independently associated with mortality. Factors that were found to be independently associated with in-hospital mortality in Model 2 analysis were CHA2DS2-VASc-HS, R2CHA2DS2-VASc, hemoglobin, CRP and ferritin whereas except hemoglobin in Model 3 analysis, the other variables had been the same. Predictive power of R2CHA2DS2-VASc was better than of both CHA2DS2-VASc (p=0.002) and CHA2DS2-VASc-HS (p=0.034) in determining the in-hospital mortality. Patients with higher R2CHA2DS2-VASc (> 3 points), CHA2DS2-VASc-HS (> 3 points) and CHA2DS2-VASc (> 2 points) scores exhibited the highest mortality rate in survival analysis by using Kaplan-Meier and long-rank tests.

CONCLUSIONS: CHA2DS2-VASc, CHA2DS2-VASc-HS, and R2CHA2DS2-VASc were found to be independent predictors of mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The current study revealed that the predictive ability of R2CHA2DS2-VASc was better than the both of CHA2DS2-VASc and CHA2DS2-VASc-HS score.

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