Strategic Planning for Infrastructure of Diyala Governorate: Water Sector

ABSTRACT


Introduction
Strategic planning refers to an organization's future planning, the main and primary goal of implementing strategic planning was to control the entire organization.[1].A strategic plan is a roadmap for getting an organization from where it is today to where it wants to be in five or 10 years [2].Strategic planning may assist companies in focusing on making successful decisions and activities that advance the organization's goal [3].Strategic planning "when done correctly, offers one infrastructure services, such as safe drinking water and sanitation to prevent disease, electricity to serve schools and health centers and roads [8].Infrastructure services are more in demand as a result of population growth, but improved infrastructure services also draw people to a place [9].
The researchers classified the infrastructure into several classifications from this classifications : Physical infrastructure, which includes transportation, energy, water and drainage systems, waste management, information and communication technology (ICT), green infrastructure, which includes rivers, open spaces, and coastlines, as well as community and social infrastructure, which includes public spaces, healthcare, education, and community services, as well as occasionally low-cost housing [10].Water is one of the basic elements of infrastructure, as it is important and essential for the population especially good water drinking water is important because it is related to human health and its absence causes diseases and epidemics [11].The most critical issue in water distribution system development and operation is meeting consumer demand, this entails consistently supplying users with highquality water in sufficient quantities [12].

Strategic planning for infrastructure (Water Sector)
There is a consistently growing gap between the demands for ensuring the delivery of utility services and the capacity of the public sector to meet those demands, this capability gap is exacerbated by challenges emerging such as increasing uncertainty in technical and social context conditions, public facilities can determine the abilities to deal with changing circumstances by implementing the processes of suitable formal strategic planning [13].Awareness of the need for effective strategic planning processes has been rising in the sectors of services and infrastructure-based [14].A strategic planning approach appropriate for infrastructural projects must specifically take into account their unique characteristics, such as their substantial capital requirements, lengthy relevant time horizons, and the numerous objectives imposed on service delivery, [13].The characteristics of strategic infrastructure planning can be summarized according to [15] as follows: 1.The objective of strategic infrastructure planning procedures is to improve the quality, cost, and continuity of infrastructure services over the long term. .2. Strategic infrastructure planning would take into account both supply and demand for infrastructure services.3. It must have a long-term perspective, with a minimum time horizon of 10-15 years and, in certain situations, reaching as far as 30 or 40 years

Research aim and objectives
The research aims to study the existing infrastructure for the (water sector) for the Diyala governorate and determine the deficit ratios in the (water sector) and propose solutions to treat the problems in this sector of infrastructure.

Research methodology
To achieve the objective, the following research was followed:

Theoretical aspects
Reviewing the literature about the research topic by summarizing the international studies, including books, papers, and theses.

Practical aspects
This part included:

Data Collection
Population data were collected for the Diyala governorate for the years 2010 to 2021, as shown in Figure 1, (data collected from the Ministry of Planning -Central Statistical Organization, Diyala Statistics Directorate).The data of the water sector, which included the quantities produced of potable water for the filtration projects and complexes of the Diyala Water Directorate in Diyala Governorate from 2010 to 2021, as shown in Table 1.The data included the total actual capacities of all filtration projects and complexes multiplied by the number of daily operating hours for the projects and complexes for the past eleven years, i.e., what these projects and complexes produced of drinking water.There are 27 projects and 190 complexes in Diyala Governorate in 2021 throughout Diyala Governorate.

Determine the deficit ratios
Standard of the average per capita share of drinking water (250 liters / person / day) according to the Iraqi Ministry of Planning for the year 2020, according to [16].Deficit is the difference between demand and actual or supplied.
The demand = number of units x demand per unit….Table 2. shows there was a noticeable deficit in the population's share of potable water in Diyala Governorate.

4-2-3 Predicting the population of Diyala governorate for the year 2035
The reason for the growth in the demand for the service of water is due to the population increase, the population growth of Diyala Governorate was predicted for the period of planning 2035, using the population data from 2010 to 2021 shown in Table (1), using simple linear regression analysis using the SPSS program version 26.
The regression equation is written as follows: Population (predicted) = 33797.654(year) -66560810.077 (3) The value of beta: 33797.654Unstandardized Coefficients B (constant) : -66560810.077Figure 3. shows the actual population of Diyala Governorate from the year 2010 to the year 2021 and the predicted population of Diyala Governorate for the years 2022 to 2035, where the population of Diyala Governorate was predicted to reach 2,217,416 people in the year 2035.

Predicting the demand for potable water for the year 2035
The demand for potable water was predicted for the year 2035, using the water sector data from the years 2010 to 2021 shown in Table 2, using the simple linear regression analysis, where the population as the independent variable and the demand for potable water as the dependent variable: The regression equation was as follows: Demand on the potable water (predicted) = 0.25*populations(predicted)-0.0000000009313(4) The value of beta: 0.250 Unstandardized Coefficients B (constant): -0.0000000009313 Figure 3. shows that the demand for potable water will increase in the coming years until it reaches 554354 (m³/day) in the year 2035.

4-2-5 Proposed Treatments
Three plans were proposed to treat the current deficit and future demand in the water sector.These plans include: a short-term plan that extends from the year 2022 to 2025, a medium-term plan that extends from the year 2022 to 2027, and a long-term plan that extends from the year 2022 to 2035.

A. Short-Term Plan (2022-2025)
The plan extends from 2022 to 2025 and includes addressing 50% of the current deficit in the water sector in 2021, as shown in table 2, as the deficit for the same year amounted to 139,745 (m³/day), which requires supplying the governorate with 69,873 (m³/day) equivalent 50% of 139,745 (m³/day) during the period (2022-2025).69873 (m³/day) divided by 16 hours (complex operating hours in day), which equals 4367 (m³/hour), which requires the construction of four complexes (1000 m³/hour) and two complexes (200 m³/hour).
The total cost of constructing complexes is calculated during the period 2022-2025 as shown in table 3.
The prices are an estimate that includes all the paragraphs of the project based on the opinion of experts specialized in the implementation of these projects in the Diyala Water Directorate.The plan extends from the year 2022 to 2027 and includes a complete treatment of the current deficit in the water sector in the year 2021, as shown in table 2, as the deficit for the same year amounted to 139,745 (m³/day), which requires supplying the governorate with 139,745 (m³/day) during the period 2022-2027.139,745 (m³/day) divided by 16 hours (complex operating hours in a day), which equals (8734 m³/ hour).which requires the construction of eight complexes (1000 m³/hour), one complex (500 m³/hour), one complex (200 m³/hour) and one complex (50 m³/hour).The total cost of construction of the complexes during the period 2022-2027 calculates as shown in Table 4.The plan extends from 2022 to 2035 and includes the planning to treat the current deficit in the water sector in 2021 and take into account the expected increase in demand for potable water in the year 2035.The quantities of potable water planned to be available during the period (2022-2035) are equal to demand for potable water in 2035 minus the actual in 2021, which is equal to 251869 (m³/day).251869 (m³/day) divided by 16 hours (complex operating hours in day), which equals (15742 m³/hour), i.e., providing sufficient quantities of potable water for all residents of Diyala Governorate by 2035.which requires the construction of four projects (2000 m³/hour), seven complexes (1000 m³/hour), one complex (500 m³/hour), one complex (200 m³/hour), and one complex (50 m³/hour).The total cost of construction of the projects and complexes of water during the period (2022-2035) calculates as shown in table 5.

Conclusions
Based on the work of the paper, the following conclusions can be drawn: 1.There is a clear deficiency in the volume of infrastructure services for the (water sector) in Diyala Governorate, and this deficiency does not result only from lack of availability, but rather as a result of weak planning vision and the absence of future plans that take into account the increase in the size of the population of the province.2. The deficit ratio in the water sector reached 32% in 2021, and one of its reasons is that the absorptive capacity of the treatment plants or filtering plants of the drinking water network is not commensurate with population growth and expansions in the study area.3. Three plans were proposed to address the current deficit and future demand for water sector , where the short-term plan can address 50% of the current deficit in the water sector,, where the cost of this plan amounted to 12 billion ID , the medium-term plan can permanently address the current deficit in the water sector, the cost of the medium-term plan amounted to 23 billion ID, and the longterm plan can address the current deficit and future demand in the water sector, the cost of the long-term plan was 260 billion ID.

Figure 3 .
Figure 3. Population growth of Diyala Governorate for 2010 to 2021 and predicted population growth for 2022 to 2035

Figure 3 .
Figure 3. Demand and predicted demand for potable water in Diyala Governorate for the years 2010-2035

Table 1 :
Data of drinking water service sector

Table 2 :
The deficit ratios in the water sector in Diyala Governorate for (2010 to 2021)

Table 3 .
Calculation of the costs of the water sector for a short-term plan

Table 4 .
Calculation of the costs of the water sector for a medium-term plan

Table 5 :
Calculation of the costs of the water sector for a long-term plan