UNEMPLOYMENT AND GDP RELATIONSHIP ANALYSIS IN THE VISEGRAD FOUR COUNTRIES

: Unemployment rate is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators. The change of the unemployment rate is highly correlated with the phase of the economic cycle. The economic growth has positive impact on employment issues, while negative growth will result in increasing unemployment. In terms of the future economic outlook, we find it important to analyse the development of the unemployment rate. This study is addressing the analysis of unemployment rate in the V4 countries of the Central European region. It is focusing on examining the relationship between the economic cycle and the long-term unemployment rate in the region. We targeted to examine the productive age group of the population (20-64 years). This group has the greatest influence on development of the employment trends. We applied the method of regression analysis and descriptive statistics. We used Eurostat as a data source. Our research has shown that there is no close relationship between the real GDP and the unemployment rate.


Introduction
The development of unemployment rate is a significant factor when analysing the economy. The indicators related to unemployment forecast the development of the economy in the Abstract: Unemployment rate is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators. The change of the unemployment rate is highly correlated with the phase of the economic cycle. The economic growth has positive impact on employment issues, while negative growth will result in increasing unemployment. In terms of the future economic outlook, we find it important to analyse the development of the unemployment rate. This study is addressing the analysis of unemployment rate in the V4 countries of the Central European region. It is focusing on examining the relationship between the economic cycle and the long-term unemployment rate in the region. We targeted to examine the productive age group of the population (20-64 years). This group has the greatest influence on development of the employment trends. We applied the method of regression analysis and descriptive statistics. We used Eurostat as a data source. Our research has shown that there is no close relationship between the real GDP and the unemployment rate.

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NO. 34 / 2020 examined territory. These indicators will determine whether the economy is going through a better or worse period.
Unemployment is a changing phenomenon, so certain time intervals have to be examined to assess the long-term consequences. Our study examines the period between 2008 and 2019, as 2008 is indicated as being the start of the worldwide economic downturn. The economic crisis of 2008 is considered to be the second biggest crises since the big economic crisis of [1929][1930][1931][1932][1933]. Data collection to our research finished in 2019. According to Paweta (2018), the financial crisis of 2008 had impact on V4 countries only several years after the crisis started. The impact of the economic crisis has weakened since 2019, and the economy has bounced back on the track it was before the crisis, even surpassed the economic activity before 2018.
The current research focuses on the examination of Visegrad Four countries in terms of unemployment. These countries are situated close to each other geographically. As a result of "coexistence", not only geographical, but also cultural similarities can be observed. Several historical events had taken place in their territories. Among these can be mentioned the WW II, followed by the era of socialism. The socialist era came to an end in 1989 with the revolutionary wave in the late 1980s and early 1990s. It resulted in the end of communist rule in Central and Eastern Europe and beyond, and the countries of Visegrad 4 started their parallel development.
Since the Visegrad Four are also closely linked by the common past, it was relevant when the research started. The common past and history dates back to the personal union between the Kingdom of Hungary and the kingdom of Poland (1370-1384; 1440-1444), and the personal union between the Hungarians and the Czech (1305, 1419-1439, 1453-1457 and 1490-1516). These unions had impact on the surrounding countries, as well as significant was the impact of the Czechoslovak Republic (1918-1939 and 1945-1992). It is also important to mention the period between 1867 and 1918, the period of the Dual Monarchy. In the light of these historical facts we assume that common features and co-operation in field of the economy can also be detected nowadays. In terms of economic development the Visegrad Four countries are observed as a single region.

Theoretical background
The development of the world economy is influenced by a set of factors in a dynamically changing environment. According to Zeibote, et al. (2019), globalization as the most significant ONLINE JOURNAL MODELLING THE NEW EUROPE NO. 34 / 2020 phenomenon has an impact not only on the economic competitiveness but also on regional development. The effects of globalization differ in the selected regions depending on the degree of their economic development. Although globalization has the largest impact on the functioning of the business sector, the effects of it are widespread and shape the socio-economic condition of the whole country. The fact, that the regional disparities are influenced by macroeconomic and microeconomic factors is pointed out by Lazíková et al (2018). The economic performance, GDP and the unemployment rate are those macroeconomic factors that influence the regional development (Koišová and Havierniková, 2016;Vigliarolo, 2020). Kováčik and Mariš (2014) support these findings in their earlier work and provide detailed analysis of the impact of unemployment on the regional structure of the economy. Unemployment is considered by the authors to be one of the country´s most serious economic problem, as it affects the overall workingage population and the social spheres. The most serious problem in this area is the structural unemployment of older people and the youth.
According to Nielsen et al. (2015), Mügge (2016), Wang and Le (2018), unemployment ranks among the leading macroeconomic indicators, significantly affecting the economic growth, which became a discussed issue among the experts. The problem of unemployment affects the vast majority of population as it determines the employment rate of citizens in a particular country.
There are many determinants affecting the development of unemployment. This study will address several of them. The regions mostly affected by unemployment are those, which were not a magnet for large enterprises, surrounded by SMEs, which can ensure employment of sufficient number of people (Lorincova, Potkány, 2016;Žuľová, Kundrát, 2020). The countries of the European Union and the countries of Visegrad Four (V4) are marked by significant regional disparities in the field of unemployment.
The importance of research in the field of unemployment was emphasized by Čadil et al (2011), as unemployment in terms of public finances represents a significant cost item.
Unemployment is a phenomenon characterized by serious socio-economic consequences not only for the unemployed, but also for their close environment and the whole society. The authors also reflect to the problem of unemployment that needs to be addressed comprehensively, as it affects several areas of the country´s economy. It reduces the purchasing power of the population, resulting in decreasing sales of businesses, and lower amount of tax paid to the state budget.
The research of unemployment with a focus on selected Central European countries was also addressed by Xie et al. (2018). Our study is focusing on a narrow segment of Central European Volek and Novotná (2017), who emphasize the impact of industrial society on the economy and the labour market.
According to the research conducted, all current trends have an impact on development of the macroeconomic indicators of individual countries. Therefore, Zieliński (2015) highlights that employment policy in V4 countries must be an integral part of the macroeconomic policy management. In addition to tools applied, it is necessary to look for new ways and opportunities employing people, especially in border regions. some cultural and other differences between them. These differences require a differentiated approach when employing people at different jobs (Lazányi, et al., 2017). According to Rainsford, et al. (2019), creating appropriate working conditions is one of the preconditions for effective absorption of the unemployed. 4. Chehabeddine and Tvaronavičienė (2020) also pointed out the differentiated conditions in regional employment policy and the regional management of human resources. According to authors, there is a significant difference between the innovative and classical economies, since innovation is driven by new ideas and application of methods that naturally attract the workforce and contribute to reducing the unemployment. Motivational tools applied in selected areas of the economic sector were also addressed by Karácsony (2017 warn the attention on increasing differences on the labour market, which require a specific approach of human resource management represented by different generations.

Material and Methods
The main aim of our study is to address the development of unemployment in the Visegrad In order to obtain relevant research results, in addition to defined objectives and methods we used, several research questions were formulated.

1.
How the unemployment rate in the examined countries is developing? What kind of trends can be observed?

2.
Why the development of unemployment rate differed in Poland from the rest of the V4 countries? The Polish unemployment rate reached a peak three years later than in the rest of the V4 (2013).

3.
What effect did the change in real GDP have on the development of unemployment rates?
Our data was obtained from the Eurostat database, and the calculations were performed using a statistical software.

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Results and Discussion Source: own editing based on Eurostat database 4.8% during this period. In the early 2010s, many people were unable to find a job within a year.
This also affected the unemployment rate, which started to increase in 2011. This trend turned to decreasing rate of unemployment in 2013, when the unemployment rate dropped by 1%.  The following table shows the relationship between the unemployment rate and the development of real GDP based on a linear regression calculation.

Conclusion
The first part of the study introduced the concept of unemployment and the literary overview of the issue. In addition, the partial results and findings about the unemployment were presented.
The research results introduced the development of unemployment rate in the V4 countries.
In order to make the data easier to understand, we presented the obtained data of unemployment rate by using tables and figures. It was followed by the examination of annual changes in real GDP in the V4 countries. The changes in real GDP were compared to the unemployment rate of each country. Linear regression was used to determine the relationship between the unemployment rate The results indicate further research to be conducted in order to get more details about the addressed issue. In order to expand our research, the application of further indicators is required, and provide analysis in terms of age and gender distribution.
Considering the current situation, when the world is heading towards the worldwide recession as a result of pandemic COVID-19, we would like to extend our future research by examining the economic indicators of this period. The results we plan to compare to the research trends outlined in the current article. The economic crisis caused by the pandemic COVID-19 also affects the economies of the V4. The Polish economy again seems to be the most resilient among the countries of the V4. The forthcoming months and the next year will be challenging for the countries, the indicators may vary depending on the scale of the crisis.

Acknowledgement
This paper represents a partial result of the project 1/2019 -PADE-0117-2. This research was supported by the "GAAA 5-5/2020 Development of family businesses in Slovak regions" project, which has received funding from Grant Agency Academia Aurea, too.