Groundwater Modeling of Huzur Tehsil, M.P Using GIS Techniques

Huzur Tehsil, district Bhopal city in the Madhya Pradesh state of India has faced the problem of groundwater availability in recent times believed largely due to rapid urbanization coupled with the presence of increasing Population and the urban sprawl increase the number of bores well in earth, which is the reason to the declination of groundwater level. That means water is very important for the sustained use of natural resources and is vital for the existence of mankind. Groundwater used for a variety of purposes, including irrigation, drinking, and manufacturing. For assessing the groundwater Level suitability zones through GIS techniques, this study was undertaken in the Huzur Tehsil, Bhopal district, Madhya Pradesh. Artificial recharge is expected to become increasingly necessary in the future as the growing population requires more water and thus, more storage is required to conserve water for use in times of shortage. Geospatial techniques employing Geographical information systems (GIS) are increasingly being used in the field of hydrology and water resources development. This is the greatest advantage of using GIS techniques for Groundwater level (bore well) investigations and monitoring is its ability to generate information in water level behavioral conditions, which is provided very critical for successful analysis, prediction, and validation. In the present study, the Kriging technique was used to interpolate the groundwater levels. Interpolation of pre and postmonsoon groundwater levels was carried out for the year 1996-2017. Finally, we generated the fluctuation maps were showing the fluctuation in the pre-post monsoon period between the years, 1996-2000, 2001-2005, -2010 and 2011-2017 and Long term trend fluctuation maps were generated showing, and finally, Feature Projected Groundwater Level map are generated 2018-2051 period, and showing the Groundwater Level trend (1996-2051) since. For visualization groundwater level depth (mbgl) and Fluctuation, in the pre and post-monsoon period, showing the 3D Surface modeling using Matlab tools.


Introduction
Groundwater is subsurface water that occurs beneath the earth's surface. In a hydrologic water cycle, groundwater comes from surface waters (precipitation, lake, reservoir, river, sea, etc.) and percolates into the ground beneath the water table. Groundwater is a significant part of the hydrologic cycle, containing 21% of earth water. Growth in population, urbanization, and standards of living has resulted in increased demand for water. Groundwater has an important role in the environment: it replenishes streams, rivers, and wetlands and helps to support wildlife habitat; it is used as the primary source of drinking water and also in agricultural and industrial activities. Around the world, groundwater resources are under increasing pressure caused by the intensification of human activities and other factors such as growing population and very fast Urban Sprawl. Many states in India use the water right process to manage groundwater quantity and to ensure that over drafting does not occur. Groundwater is the major source of drinking water in rural India. It is estimated that approximately onethird of the world's population use groundwater for drinking purpose (Nickson et al., 2005). In addition to rural households, public water supplies in various parts of the world depend on wells and groundwater. But due to increases, the number of population that means urban sprawl increases and demand for water are is required more in an urban area and which increasing number is of bore well every house holding in an urban area, which is the reason to decline the Groundwater Level. As we know groundwater is an important source of water supply throughout the world, its uses in irrigation, industry, municipality and domestic areas continue to increase. Therefore, greater emphasis is being laid for a planned and optimal utilization of water resources. Owing to the uneven distribution of rainfall both in time and space, the surface water resources are unevenly distributed. This has resulted in an increased emphasis on the development of groundwater resources. The simultaneous development of groundwater especially through bore wells a will decline water table. In such a situation, a severe problem is created resulting in the drying of bore wells. Modern techniques like GIS (Geographical information technology) are increasingly becoming important day by day in all real-world problems of geospatial nature. The field of hydrology and water resource development is also the area having an extensive scope of deriving benefits from these tools of geoinformatics (Krishna et al., 2005). One of the greatest advantages of using GIS for hydrological investigations and monitoring is its ability to generate information in groundwater fluctuation and condition of groundwater, which is very crucial for successful analysis, prediction, and validation (Kumar M.G. et al., 2008). GIS technology is becoming an important tool as a platform to efficiently manage large and complex information organized around its core. It also provides suitable alternatives for efficient management of large and complex databases.

Problem Identification
In see few years the Groundwater Level decline in Huzur Tehsil, district Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, India. Due to increases in the high population and more urban sprawl that means increasing the number of bores well, which are affected by the groundwater level. And few bore well dry in the premonsoon period. This condition produces a continuous decline groundwater level in Huzur, Tehsil district Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, India.

Objectives of the Study
The analysis of the declining groundwater levels and the factors responsible for it is the immediate need of the hour to assess the overall scenario concerning groundwater. The study includes the analysis of groundwater fluctuation  pre-post monsoon. The study includes the analysis of Long term trend groundwater fluctuation  pre-monsoon. The study includes the analysis of feature projected groundwater level fluctuation  and shows the trend pattern in Groundwater level fluctuation. With the help of MATLAB showing the groundwater level fluctuation visualization.

Study Area
Huzur Tehsil, Bhopal district, spanning over an area of about 1361.77 sq. km lies in the central part of the state of Madhya Pradesh. Before the independence of India, it was a part of the Bhopal state, which was founded by Nawab Dost Mohammad Khan in the year 1722. The reorganization of states in November 1956, made Bhopal the capital of Madhya Pradesh State, but it remained the part of Sehore district. In the year 1972 Bhopal became the new district under the Bhopal commissioner's division.
The district is bounded by Guna district on the north, Vidisha district on the northeast, Raisen district on the east and Sehore and Rajgarh district on the southwest and west respectively. There are 245 villages in the Huzur These, Bhopal District. Bhopal urban area is about 296 sq km. Bhopal city is the district as well as state headquarter. Bhopal is well connected with all parts of the country by Air, Rail, and roads. The location of the study area is shown in the map below ( Figure 1). The area falls between North latitude 23 0 04'18" and 23 0 25'46" and East longitude 77 0 10'07" and 77 0 37'32. Show the Location map of Huzur Tehsil is given in (Figure 2). Bhopal has consisted of the humid subtropical climate, with mild, dry winters, hot summer and a humid monsoon season. The summers start in late April and go on till mid-June, the average temperature is around 30 °C (86 °F), with the peak of summer in May, when the highs regularly exceed 40 °C (104 °F).

Rainfall
The monsoon starts in late June and ends in late September. IMD normal annual rainfall of Bhopal city is 1260.2 mm. The average temperature is almost around 25 °C (77 °F) and the humidity is quite high. The temperatures rise again up to late October when winter starts, which lasts up to early March. The winters in Bhopal are mild, sunny and dry, with average temperatures around 18 °C (64 °F) and little or no rain. The winter time peaks in January when temperatures may drop close to freezing on some nights. The daily normal temperature of Bhopal in May -40.70 C and minimum -26.40 C. rainfall analysis the monsoon time last June to September time Groundwater level is good Condition in the study are . The annual variation of rainfall is shown below (Figure 3).

Well Distribution
Above the study area to collect the 130 rural and 220 urban areas bore well point. Show in below location of well point in urban and rural area ( Figure 4).

Data collection
Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) maintains 350 wells Huzur Tehsil, Bhopal district for monitoring groundwater resources. We have collected a total of 350 bore wells data that are collected in Huzur tehsil, Bhopal District. They are identification of well Location Ground truths using the handholds GPS. As shown in below the Well Location map in Huzur tehsil, District Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh ( Figure 4). The collected urban and rural Groundwater Level Bore well (mbgl) data       Bhopal (1996Bhopal ( -2000 (1834493) out of a total population, 89.5% people live in urban areas while 10.5% lives in the rural areas. As shown in below the total population of Huzur Tehsil, district Bhopal, M.P in Figure 5. As per Census 2011, the number of total 211 Villages in Huzur Tehsil of Bhopal district, Madhya Pradesh. Show the Table 7 and 8 lists of cities and villages in Huzur Tehsil of Bhopal district, Madhya Pradesh (Source: As per Census 2011).

Methodology
The base map of the study area was prepared using a survey of India topographical maps (Figure 9). The bore well observation data were plotted on to the map by using location (latitude & longitude) of each well. In total 350 observations, wells were selected for further processing of the data for Groundwater Level analysis. Based on above collection these are prepared the GIS map with the help of the Kriging interpolation model technique in Arc GIS Software. In this study, the Kriging technique was used for the spatial distribution of Groundwater level fluctuation (mbgl) for pre and post-monsoon on the five-year average interval (1996-2000, 2001-2005, 2006-2010, 2002-2006, 2006-2010), and one seven year interval (2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017). And long term trend fluctuation . Using the Matlab to the analysis of Groundwater Level in bore well, and Generate the Groundwater-Surface Modeling in Pre and Post Monsoon. And find out the Groundwater Level feature Projected (2018-2022, 2023-2027, 2028-2032, 2033-2037, 2038-2042, 2043-2047, 2048-2051) and long trend in (2018-2051) using GIS technique and prepared the map. Show the flow chart of the methodology in Figure 8.

Kriging Interpolation model
Kriging is named after D.G. Krige, a South African mining engineer and pioneer in the application of statistical techniques to mine evaluation. The Kriging technique is derived from the theory of regionalized variables (Krige, 1966;Matheron, 1963). An advantage of Kriging (above other moving averages like inverse distance) is that it provides a measure of the probable error associated with the estimates. Kriging can be seen as a point interpolation, which requires a point map as input and returns a raster map with estimations and optionally an error map. The estimated or predicted values (Z) is thus a linear combination known input point values (zi) and have a minimum estimation error. Thus, to calculate one output pixel value Z, first, three weight factors w1, w2, w3 have to be found (one for each input point value z1, z2, z3), then, these weight factors can be multiplied with the corresponding input point values and summed. In Kriging, the weight factors are calculated by finding the semi-variance values for all distances between input points and by finding semi-variance values for all distances between an output pixel and all input points; then a set of simultaneous equations has to be solved. The weight factors are calculated in such a way that the estimation error in each output pixel is minimized. All semi-variance values are calculated by using a user-specified semi-variogram model. The model describes the expected variance in value between pairs of samples with a given relative orientation. One of the best semi-variogram models like Spherical, Exponential, and Gaussian, etc. is selected and values for the sill, range, and nugget are chosen for best fit. Thus, the semivariogram model and values for sill, range, and nugget have been finalized, and the Kriging operation has been continued.

Results and Discussion
It has taken all twenty two year annual rainfall (1996-2017) and each well point groundwater level in pre-post seasons of the year. And analysis of population 2001 and 2011 based on that analysis to project the population in 2051 year. That means the population are increase yearly to yearly, the water demand are increases in Huzur tehsil, district Bhopal, which effected the declination of water level. The Groundwater is not in underground lakes, nor is it water flowing in underground rivers. It is simply water that fills pores or cracks in subsurface rocks. When rain falls or snow melts on the surface of the ground, some water may run off into lower land areas or lakes and streams. What is left may be absorbed by the soil, seep into deeper layers of soil and rock, or evaporate into the atmosphere.

Groundwater System Behavior
Groundwater System Behavior which is that will help in a better understanding of the Huzur tehsil groundwater system. And water depth in bore well and fluctuation of water level in bore well in the same village and urban area, and long trend of water level.

Long term water level fluctuation
Analysis of decadal pre-monsoon water level data for the period 1996-2017 indicates that, in general, the declining trend in water levels has been in most parts of Huzur, Tehsil, District Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh. The Groundwater Level maximum decline was in an urban area while the minimum in decline was rural areas. The declining trend ranges from 13.71 to 37.96 m/year (Figure 16).and generates the Long Trend of Groundwater Level modeling in pre-monsoon  and Water level contour map created from the model results as shown in Figure 17.  1996-2000, 2001-2005, 2006-2010 and 2011-2017 Fluctuation ( 1996-2000, 2001-2005, 2006-2010and 2011-2017: Decadal pre-monsoon water level Long trend map  Using MATLAB R2017b Curve Fitting Toolbox provides an app and functions for fitting curves and surfaces to data. The toolbox lets you perform exploratory data analysis, preprocess and post-process data, compare candidate models. The library provides optimized solver parameters and starting conditions to improve the quality of your fits. The toolbox also supports nonparametric modeling techniques, such as spines, interpolation, and smoothing. Using the MATLAB to show the Long trend of Groundwater Level modeling in pre-monsoon (3d Surface) ( Figure 17).

Projected Feature Forecast Trend Groundwater Level
Based on the above analysis groundwater level (1996 -2017) in Huzur tehsil, District Bhopal, deal with the provided the feature projected Ground water Level in Huzur tehsil, District Bhopal (2018-2051.Theses section analysis of Projected Feature Groundwater Level in Huzur Tehsil, District Bhopal. These are using FORECAST Function is categorized under Statistical functions. It will calculate or predict future value using existing values.
The equation for FORECAST function will calculate a new y-value using the simple straight-line equation:

y=a+bx,
Where: And: And the values of x and y are the sample means (the averages) of the known x-and the known yvalues. Based on the above Table 1 & 2 with reacted to find out the feature projected values in ground water level in study area  as shown in Table 9 and 10 two urban and rural pre-post monsoon data list. As shown in below the Projected Feature Forecasting Groundwater Level Fluctuation (Table 11). After the analysis Feature Projected Forecast Groundwater Level Fluctuation since 2018-2022, 2023-2027, 2028-2032, 2033-2037, 2038-2042, 2043-2047, 2048-2051 (Figure 18, 19, 20).     (2018-2022, 2023-2027, 2028-2032 and 2033-2037)   After the analysis of groundwater trend in pre-monsoon actual and projected feature shown the decline in the groundwater level. If we can do not stop the population growth and Urban sprawl such that after 20 or 30-year water level much more decline. And water will be not getting on the earth. Which is generated the drought condition in more area India? That means the Groundwater Level trend is increasing order (Figure 23). Fluctuation Trend (1996-2017to 2018-2051

Conclusions
The study reflects an overall inclining trend of depth to groundwater level over the study period. In general, the results show that the district is facing the problem of declining groundwater Level in the recent past, after the year 2011. In 2011 to 2017 Huzur tehsil District Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh Groundwater level at the time of pre-monsoon time most of the area decline. And an increasing number of bore well drought. The areas showing inclining trend on a long -term bases (1996-2017 to 2018-2051) are the areas having decline groundwater level. Since 1996-2017 the Groundwater Level fluctuation was between lies 1. 63-27.40 (mbgl). And the period 2018-2051 feature projected groundwater level fluctuation since 2018-2051 feature projected Groundwater Level fluctuation was between 7.69 -102.28 (mbgl) and after analysis of pre-long trend Groundwater Level Fluctuation period 1996-2017. The declining trend ranges from 13.71 to 37.96 m/year. And the projected feature pre-long trend declining trend ranges from 27.65 to 91.58 m/year (period 2018-2051). That means increasing the population, in urban sprawl, the effect of the increasing decline of groundwater. The study demonstrates the subtle use of GIS in spatial distribution mapping and monitoring for groundwater Level in the area. The overall status of groundwater level fluctuations has received very little attention in our study area. The behavior of groundwater level fluctuations is, however, is in the initial phases for the development and management of groundwater resources as an alternative resource for drinking and domestic purposes for future demand. Groundwater level decline shows an increasing trend from 1996 to 2017 and 2018 to 2051.