Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-wq2xx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-23T17:58:47.969Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Getting Out the Vote: Participation in Gubernatorial Elections

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Samuel C. Patterson  and
Gregory A. Caldeira
Samuel C. Patterson
Affiliation:
The University of Iowa
Gregory A. Caldeira
Affiliation:
The University of Iowa
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Scholarship on electoral turnout has long emphasized two main themes: explanations of nonvoting in terms of individual characteristics and in terms of contextual variables. These investigations have deeply enriched our understanding of electoral participation, but their limitations have also sensitized us to the remaining problems of explanation. Perusal of the work on American politics exposes a rather striking tendency in studies of participation to ignore, or soft pedal, the effects of active political mobilization. In this article we formulate two models of electoral turnout—socioeconomic and political mobilization—and apply them to aggregate data on voting in gubernatorial elections of 1978 and 1980. The socioeconomic model of turnout includes such influences as income, age, and educational attainment. To assess the effects of political mobilization, we have considered campaign spending, partisan competition, electoral margin, and the presence or absence of a simultaneous race for the United States Senate. Both of the models perform quite well individually, producing significant and meaningful coefficients and adequate fits. Yet in the final analysis we demonstrate that quite apart from major sources of variation in gubernatorial turnout—such as region and presidential versus nonpresidential years—the mobilizing influences of campaign activism and competitiveness have a strong impact on electoral participation; electoral law, i.e., closing date of registration, retains a small but significant effect on voting for governor; and socioeconomic characteristics, included in a fully specified model, have little to contribute independently to an explanation of electoral turnout. These findings are very much in the same vein as related cross-national investigations, which emphasize the crucial role of electoral law and political parties and downplay individual characteristics as determinants of electoral participation. On the basis of the research reported here, we argue that scholars need to pay more attention to political mobilization as an explanation of electoral turnout.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 77 , Issue 3 , September 1983 , pp. 675 - 689
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1983

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abramson, P. R., & Aldrich, J. H. The decline of electoral participation in America. American Political Science Review, 1982, 76, 502–521.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aldrich, J. H. Some problems in testing two rational models of participation. American Journal of Political Science, 1976, 20, 713–734.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ashenfelter, O., & Kelley, S. Jr., Determinants of participation in presidential elections. Journal of Law and Economics, 1975, 18, 695–733.Google Scholar
Barnes, S. H., & Kaase, M., et al. Political action: Mass participation in five Western democracies. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage Publications, 1979, pp. 86, 168.Google Scholar
Bennett, S. E., & Klecka, W. R. Social status and political participation: A multivariate analysis of predictive power. Midwest Journal of Political Science, 1970, 14, 355–382.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blank, R. H. Socio-economic determination of voting turnout: A challenge. Journal of Politics, 1974, 36, 731–752.Google Scholar
Blydenburgh, J. C. A controlled experiment to measure the effects of personal contact campaigning. Midwest Journal of Political Science, 1971, 15, 365–381.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Book of the states. Lexington, Ky.: Council of State Governments, 1980, pp. 66–67.Google Scholar
Boyd, R. W. Decline of U.S. voter turnout: Structural explanations. American Politics Quarterly, 1981, 9, 133–159.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brody, R. A. The puzzle of political participation in America. In King, A. (Ed.). The new American political system. Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1978, pp. 287–324.Google Scholar
Brody, R. A., & Sniderman, P. M. From life space to polling place: the relevance of personal concerns for voting behavior. British Journal of Political Science, 1977, 7, 337–360.Google Scholar
Burnham, W. D. The appearance and disappearance of the American voter. In Rose, R. (Ed.). Electoral participation: A comparative analysis. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage Publications, 1980, pp. 35–73.Google Scholar
Caldeira, G. A., & Patterson, S. C. Bringing home the votes: Electoral outcomes in state legislative races. Political Behavior, 1982a, 4, 33–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caldeira, G. A., & Patterson, S. C. Contextual influences on participation in U.S. state legislative elections. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 1982b, 7, 359–381.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, A., Converse, P. E., Miller, W. E., & Stokes, D. E. The American voter. New York: John Wiley, 1960.Google Scholar
Campbell, A., Converse, P. E., Miller, W. E., & Stokes, D. E. Elections and the political order. New York: John Wiley, 1966.Google Scholar
Cassel, C. A. Change in electoral participation in the South. Journal of Politics, 1979, 41, 909–917.Google Scholar
Cassel, C. A., & Hill, D. B. Explanations of turnout decline: A multivariate test. American Politics Quarterly, 1981, 9, 181–195.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cavanagh, T. E. Changes in American voter turnout, 1964–1976. Political Science Quarterly, 1981, 96, 53–65.Google Scholar
Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report 37, 1756–1757, 08 25, 1979.Google Scholar
Conway, M. M. Political participation in midterm congressional elections: Attitudinal and social characteristics during the 1970s. American Politics Quarterly, 1981, 9, 221–244.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crewe, I. Electoral participation. In Butler, D., Penniman, H. R., & Ranney, A. (Eds.). Democracy at the polls: A comparative study of competitive national elections. Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1981, pp. 216–263.Google Scholar
Crotty, W. J. The party organization and its activities. In Crotty, W. J. (Ed.), Approaches to the study of party organization. Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 1968, pp. 247–306.Google Scholar
Crotty, W. J. Party effort and its impact on the vote. American Political Science Review, 1971, 65, 439–450.Google Scholar
Dawson, P. A., & Zinser, J. E. Political finance and participation in congressional elections. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 1976, 425, 59–73.Google Scholar
Downs, A. An economic theory of democracy. New York: Harper & Row, 1957.Google Scholar
Eldersveld, S. J. Experimental propaganda techniques and voting behavior. American Political Science Review, 1956, 50, 154–165.Google Scholar
Eldersveld, S. J. Political parties: A behavioral analysis. Chicago: Rand McNally, 1964.Google Scholar
Eldersveld, S. J., & Dodge, R. W. Personal contacct or mail propaganda? An experiment in voting turnout and attitude change. In Katz, D., Cartwright, D., Eldersveld, S., & Lee, A. M. (Eds.), Public opinion and propaganda. New York: Dryden Press, 1954, pp. 532–542.Google Scholar
Erickson, R. S. Why do people vote? Because they are registered. American Politics Quarterly, 1981, 9, 259–276.Google Scholar
Ferejohn, J. A., & Fiorina, M. P. The paradox of not voting: A decision theoretic analysis. American Political Science Review, 1974, 68, 525–536.Google Scholar
Ferejohn, J. A., & Fiorina, M. P. Closeness counts only in horseshoes and dancing. American Political Science Review, 1975, 69, 920–925.Google Scholar
Ferejohn, J. A., and Fiorina, M. P. The decline of turnout in presidential elections. Presented at the National Science Foundation Conference on Voter Turnout, San Diego, Calif., 1979.Google Scholar
Gibson, J. L., Cotter, C. P., Bibby, J. F., & Huckshorn, R. J. Whither the local parties: A cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis of the strength of party organizations. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Western Political Science Association, San Diego, Calif., 1982.Google Scholar
Glaser, W. A. The family and voting turnout. Public Opinion Quarterly, 1959, 23, 563–570.Google Scholar
Gosnell, H. F. Getting out the vote: An experiment in the stimulation of voting. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1927.Google Scholar
Gosnell, H. F. Why Europe votes. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1930.Google Scholar
Gosnell, H. F. Machine politics: Chicago model. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1937.Google Scholar
Gray, V. A note on competition and turnout in the American states. Journal of Politics, 1976, 38, 153–158.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hammond, J. L. Race and electoral mobilization: White southerners, 1952–1968. Public Opinion Quarterly, 1977, 41, 13–27.Google Scholar
Hofferbert, R. I. Classification of American state party systems. Journal of Politics, 1964, 26, 550–567.Google Scholar
Hofstetter, C. R. Inter-party competition and electoral turnout: The case of Indiana. American Journal of Political Science, 1973, 17, 351–366.Google Scholar
Jewell, M. E. Voting turnout in state gubernatorial primaries. Western Political Quarterly, 1977, 30, 236–254.Google Scholar
Jewell, M. E., & Olson, D. M. American state political parties and elections. Homewood, Ill.: Dorsey Press, 1982.Google Scholar
Katz, D., & Eldersveld, S. J. The impact of local party activity upon the electorate. Public Opinion Quarterly, 1961, 25, 1–24.Google Scholar
Kelley, S. Jr., Ayres, R. E., & Bowen, W. G. Registration and voting: Putting first things first. American Political Science Review, 1967, 61, 359–379.Google Scholar
Key, V. O. Jr., Southern politics in state and nation. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1950.Google Scholar
Kim, J.-O., & Koh, B. C. The dynamics of electoral politics: Social development, political participation, and manipulation of electoral laws. In Kim, C. L. (Ed.). Political participation in Korea. Santa Barbara, Calif.: Clio Books, 1980, pp. 59–84.Google Scholar
Kim, J.-O., Petrocik, J. R., & Enokson, S. N. Voter turnout among the American states: Systemic and individual components. American Political Science Review, 1975, 69, 107–131.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kramer, G. H. The effects of precinct-level canvassing on voting behavior. Public Opinion Quarterly, 1970–1971, 54, 560–572.Google Scholar
Luttbeg, N. R. Differential participation decline among the states, 1960–1980. Unpublished, 1982.Google Scholar
Mather, G. B. Effects of the use of voting machines on total votes cast: Iowa—1920–1960. Iowa City: Institute of Public Affairs, University of Iowa, 1964.Google Scholar
Merriam, C. E., & Gosnell, H. F. Non-voting: Causes and methods of control. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1924.Google Scholar
Milbrath, L. W. Political participation in the states. In Jacob, H. & Vines, K. N. (Eds.), Politics in the American states. Boston: Little, Brown, 1965, pp. 25–60.Google Scholar
Milbrath, L. W., & Goel, M. L. Political participation (2nd ed.). Chicago: Rand McNally, 1977.Google Scholar
Miller, W. E. Disinterest, disaffection, and participation in presidential politics. Political Behavior, 1980, 2, 7–32.Google Scholar
Morehouse, S. M. State politics, parties and policy. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1981.Google Scholar
Morgan, D. R. State voter turnout: Changes over time. Unpublished, 1981.Google Scholar
Patterson, S. C. Campaign spending in contests for governor. Western Political Quarterly, 1982, 35, 457–477.Google Scholar
Pfeiffer, D. G. The measurement of inter-party competition and systemic stability. American Political Science Review, 1967, 61, 457–467.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, G. B. Jr. Voting turnout in thirty democracies: Partisan, legal, and socio-economic influences. In Rose, R. (Ed.). Electoral participation: A comparative analysis. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage Publications, 1980, pp. 5–34.Google Scholar
Ranney, A. Parties in state politics. In Jacob, H. & Vines, K. N. (Ed.). Politics in the American states. Boston: Little, Brown, 1976, pp. 51–92.Google Scholar
Reiter, H. L. Why is turnout down? Public Opinion Quarterly, 1979, 43, 297–311.Google Scholar
Riker, W. H., & Ordeshook, P. C. A theory of the calculus of voting. American Political Science Review, 1968, 62, 25–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosenstone, S. J. Economic adversity and voter turnout. American Journal of Political Science, 1982, 26, 25–46.Google Scholar
Schlesinger, J. A. The structure of competition for office in the American states. Behavioral Science, 1960, 5, 197–210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shaffer, S. D. A multivariate explanation of decreasing turnout in presidential elections, 1960–1976. American Journal of Political Science, 1981, 25, 68–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Silberman, J., & Durden, G. The rational behavior theory of voter participation: The evidence from congressional elections. Public Choice, 1975, 23, 101–108.Google Scholar
Taylor, P. J., & Johnston, R. J. Geography of elections. New York: Penguin Books, 1979.Google Scholar
Tucker, H. J. Interparty competition in the American states: One more time. American Politics Quarterly, 1982, 10, 93–116.Google Scholar
Verba, S., & Nie, N. H. Participation in America: Political democracy and social equality. New York: Harper & Row, 1972.Google Scholar
Verba, S., Nie, N. H., & Kim, J.-O. Participation and political equality: A seven-nation comparison. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1978.Google Scholar
Walker, J. L. Ballot forms and voter fatigue: An analysis of the office block and party column ballots. Midwest Journal of Political Science, 1966,10, 448–463.Google Scholar
Wolfinger, R. E., & Rosenstone, S. J. Who votes? New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1980.Google Scholar