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Assessment of present and future nitrogen loads, water quality, and seagrass (Thalassia testudinum) depth distribution in Lemon Bay, Florida

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Abstract

Nitrogen loads into Lemon Bay, Florida were modeled to have increased ca. 59% between pre-development (i.e., 1850) estimates (5.3 kg TN ha−1 yr−1. and estimates for the year 1995 (8.4 kg TN ha−1 yr−1). By the year 2010, nitrogen loads are predicted to increase an additional 45% or 58%, depending upon progress being made toward replacing older septic tank systems with centralized sewerage (nitrogen loads of 12.2 and 13.3 kg TN ha−1 yr−1, respectively). Using 1995 estimates, nonpoint sources (stormwater runoff) are throught to be responsible for ca. 76% of the annual nitrogen load, followed by septic tank systems (14%), rainfall (10%), and an insignificant load from baseflow. Based on an empirically-derived nitrogen load:chlorophylla relationship developed for a portion of nearby Tampa Bay, a 45% increase in nitrogen loads into Lemon Bay could result in a 29% increase in annual average chlorophylla concentrations. Using the estimate of a 29% increase in future chlorophylla concentrations, an empirically-derived optical model for Lemon Bay suggests that light attenuation coefficients in the bay would increase ca. 9%, and the average depth limit ofThalassia testudinum in Lemon Bay would decrease by ca. 24%.

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  • Englewood Water District. Personal Communication. 201 Selma Avenue, Englewood, Florida 34223.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Southwest Florida Water Management District, 7601 Highway 301 North, 33637, Tampa, Florida

    David A. Tomasko & Denise L. Bristol

  2. Florida Department of Environmental Protection, 12301 Burnt Store Road, 33955, Punta Gorda, Florida

    Judith A. Ott

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  1. David A. Tomasko
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  2. Denise L. Bristol
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  3. Judith A. Ott
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Correspondence to David A. Tomasko.

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Tomasko, D.A., Bristol, D.L. & Ott, J.A. Assessment of present and future nitrogen loads, water quality, and seagrass (Thalassia testudinum) depth distribution in Lemon Bay, Florida. Estuaries 24, 926–938 (2001). https://doi.org/10.2307/1353183

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1353183

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