Thermal Science 2014 Volume 18, Issue 5, Pages: 1511-1516
https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI1405511D
Full text ( 640 KB)
Cited by
Multi-scale modeling of the response of runoff to climate change
Di Chong-Li (Beijing Normal University, School of Environment, State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, Beijing, China)
Yang Xiao-Hua (Beijing Normal University, School of Environment, State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, Beijing, China)
Xia Xing-Hui (Beijing Normal University, School of Environment, State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, Beijing, China)
Chen Xiao-Juan (Beijing Normal University, School of Environment, State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, Beijing, China)
Li Jian-Qiang (Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design General Institute, MWR, Beijing, China)
With global warming, climate change has tremendously changed the hydrological
processes. To discover the non-linear trend of the natural runoff and its
response to precipitation and temperature in the Yellow River Basin, the
non-linear relationships among the runoff, precipitation and temperature are
analyzed by the wavelet decomposition and reconstruction methods, partial
correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis. The main
findings of this study are: (1) The annual natural runoff, precipitation and
temperature have the similar periods (27-year, 12-year), which indicates that
the periodicity of the natural annual runoff has closely relationship with
the regional climate change. (2) The annual runoff, precipitation and
temperature exhibit five patterns non-linear variations at five time scales
(1, 2, 4, 8, 16 years), that is to say, their non-linear trends are
scale-dependent with time. (3) The annual natural runoff has a significant
positive correlation with the precipitation and has a negative correlation
with temperature. In addition, the runoff variation is more sensitive to
change in precipitation than the change in temperature at all the five time
scales. (4) Although the runoff and the climate change factors have
non-linear trends at different time scales, the runoff has linear correlation
with the temperature and the precipitation, especially at a large time scale.
Keywords: temperature, climate change, runoff, precipitation, wavelet analysis, multi-scale