Glasnik Srpskog geografskog drustva 2021 Volume 101, Issue 2, Pages: 1-21
https://doi.org/10.2298/GSGD2102001G
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Changes in extreme climate indices in Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Gnjato Slobodan (University of Banja Luka, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Republic of Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina), slobodan.gnjato@pmf.unibl.org
Popov Tatjana (University of Banja Luka, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Republic of Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Ivanišević Marko (University of Banja Luka, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Republic of Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Trbić Goran (University of Banja Luka, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Republic of Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina)
The study analyzes trends in extreme climate indices in Sarajevo (Bosnia and
Herzegovina). Based on daily maximum temperatures, daily minimum
temperatures and daily precipitation during the 1961-2016 periods, a set of
27 indices recommended by the CCl/CLIVAR Expert Team for Climate Change
Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) was calculated in the RClimDex (1.0)
software. Given the results, the extreme temperature indices displayed a
warming tendency throughout the year (most prominent in summer). The
positive trends in warm temperature indices were stronger than the downward
trends in cold ones. The highest trend values were estimated for TXx, TNx,
TX90p, TN90p, WSDI, SU25 and SU30. The extreme precipitation indices
displayed trends mixed in sign (annually and seasonally), but all
statistically insignificant. However, upward trends in R99p, RX1day, RX5day,
SDII, R10mm and R20mm suggest an increase in the magnitude and frequency of
intense precipitation events. Moreover, significant changes in distribution
of majority temperature indices were determined, whereas shifts in
precipitation indices were mostly insignificant. The observed changes in
extreme temperature indices are related with large-scale atmospheric
circulation patterns (primarily the East-Atlantic pattern) and the Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation. The negative correlation with the North Atlantic
Oscillation, the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern and the Arctic
Oscillation is found for majority of extreme precipitation indices.
Keywords: extreme temperatures and precipitation indices, trend, Generalized Extreme Value distribution, climate change, Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina)