ASSESSMENT Of fOREST pRODUCTS MARkET pOTENTIAL AS A bASIS fOR fOREST SECTOR DEvELOpMENT IN THE JAbLANICA DISTRICT

: One of the main tasks of marketing research is the assessment of market potential. The aim of this research was to analyze the dynamics of selling and buying of wood and non-wood forest products (NWFPs) within the analyzed enterprises in the Jablanica District. The purpose of this research was to examine the possibilities for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) directed towards a sustainable use of forest products in the area of the Jablanica District. The subject of this research is: purchased and placed quantities in the analyzed enterprises, as well as the prices that were realized for the products, with special emphasis on commercially important mushrooms. The research was conducted in the territory of Jablanica and it included five enterprises engaged in the purchasing, processing and sale of NWFPs and the Forest Estate (FE) “Forest” Leskovac. The purchase of raw forest fruits and herbs had a growing trend (+ 17.8%) in the 2006-2013 period. The average annual growth rate (AAGR) of sales was 3.4% for medicinal plants and 30.6% for mushrooms. The AAGR of NWFPs export was + 32.6%. The placement of beech wood assortments (K class) recorded a purchase AAGR of app. + 12.7%. In 2013, it was found that the NWFPs with the highest market value were: blueberry, dried boletus and chanterelle. In 2013, their total gross revenue in the domestic market amounted to 82.3 million RSD, whereas the total gross revenue of the analyzed beech wood assortments was 87 million RSD.


INTRODUCTION
Forests of the Jablanica District are an important natural resource not only for the development of forestry in this region, but also for the overall economy (2012). The aim of the research was to analyze the dynamics of the selling and buying of wood and NWFPs, within the analyzed enterprises in the Jablanica District. The purpose of this research was to examine the possibilities for the development of SMEs, directed towards sustainable use of forest products in the area of the Jablanica District. The subject of this research is: purchased and placed quantities in the analyzed enterprises, as well as the prices that were realized for the products.
The basis of forest reserves in the territory of the Jablanica forest area (2010) is beech. Beech forests are widespread at 24412.17 ha or 65.2% of the territory and they are state owned, which directed the research towards the analysis of beech wood placement on the domestic market. Forests in the Jablanica forest area are managed by the Public Enterprise (PE) "Srbijašume" through its regional FE "Forest" Leskovac. This FE cuts around 76,000 m³ of wood annually, mainly beech. Mushrooms under the control of use and trade included in this analysis are: boletus and chanterelle, as the most widespread mushrooms in the Jablanica District.

MATERIAL AND METHODS
The research was conducted in territory of the Jablanica District. In order to collect data in the Abstract: One of the main tasks of marketing research is the assessment of market potential. The aim of this research was to analyze the dynamics of selling and buying of wood and nonwood forest products (NWFPs) within the analyzed enterprises in the Jablanica District. The purpose of this research was to examine the possibilities for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) directed towards a sustainable use of forest products in the area of the Jablanica District. The subject of this research is: purchased and placed quantities in the analyzed enterprises, as well as the prices that were realized for the products, with special emphasis on commercially important mushrooms. The research was conducted in the territory of Jablanica and it included five enterprises engaged in the purchasing, processing and sale of NWFPs and the Forest Estate (FE) "Forest" Leskovac. The purchase of raw forest fruits and herbs had a growing trend (+ 17.8%) in the 2006-2013 period. The average annual growth rate (AAGR) of sales was 3.4% for medicinal plants and 30.6% for mushrooms. The AAGR of NWFPs export was + 32.6%. The placement of beech wood assortments (K class) recorded a purchase AAGR of app. + 12.7%. In 2013, it was found that the NWFPs with the highest market value were: blueberry, dried boletus and chanterelle. In 2013, their total gross revenue in the domestic market amounted to 82.3 million RSD, whereas the total gross revenue of the analyzed beech wood assortments was 87 million RSD.

ASSESSMENT Of fOREST pRODUCTS MARkET pOTENTIAL AS A bASIS fOR fOREST SECTOR DEvELOpMENT IN THE JAbLANICA DISTRICT
Key words: market potential, marketing, forest products, the Jablanica District. enterprises engaged in NWFPs purchasing, processing and sales and the analysis of the market of wood products, the survey was conducted in the municipalities of Leskovac, Lebane and Vlasotince (Map 1).
In the area of the Jablanica District, economic activity is performed by 20.6% of business enterprises and 79.4% of "small" and "micro" enterprises (2008). Two of the surveyed enterprises belong to the group of "medium" enterprises and three are in the group of "small" enterprises. Their main and only activities are: buying, processing and sale of NWFPs. The survey was conducted in the first half of 2014.
Time series analysis for trend formulation was applied in this paper (C. Morris, 1996, Keča Lj., 2014. The basis of this research is the marketing concept which includes: the consumer, an integrated marketing program and the profit from satisfied customer needs (Kotler F. et al., 2007). Two different questionnaires were used in the research. Thus, primary data were obtained for a statistical analysis. Directed interview is characterized by simplicity and convenience for further statistical processing ( GA Churchill, 1991). This type of interview proved to be good for this kind of research, because it has pre-prepared questions, as well as variants of alternative responses. An additional part of the survey included telephone interviews with computer support (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) -CATI (Growes and Mathiowetz, 1984).

Product
The purchase of raw products was analyzed in enterprises performing in the area of Jablanica, Pčinja and Pirot.
The purchase of forest fruits, herbs and mushrooms had a growing trend. The purchase of forest fruits (Table 2) (blueberries, raspberries and blackberries), as well as of medicinal plants (Table 3), are second degree polynomials. In the case of mushrooms, there is a linear trend (Table 4). There are very strong correlations 0.887 (mushrooms); 0.953 (wild berries); 0.989 (herbs) and the correlation coefficient is statistically significant, which is indicated by the error range: 0.006 (herbs); 0.2% (forest fruits); 0.3 (mushrooms) (Significance F). The parameters are significant (at the error level of α = 0.05%). The AAGR is + 15.2% for wild berries, + 7.8% for herbs and + 94.4% for mushrooms.
The wealth of species from different genera represents an excellent basis for the development of mushrooms market in the area of Jablanica (Table 5). A wide range of species allows the collection of mushrooms during the whole year, from April to November (Karadžić D., 1995, V. Lazarev, 2003. Such schedule of fruitful bodies provides a source of income for the rural population, but also the raw material for a constant operation of purchasing stations and processors (Sitta N., M. Floriani, 2008).
The purchase of NWFPs (aggregate) was rising with the exception of the period between 2007 and 2008, when there was a significant increase in the purchase of raw NWFPs. In 2013, a decline was recorded in their purchase (Figure 1). The purchase of NWFPs (aggregate) is a second degree polynomial (Table 6). It represents very strong correlations (0.963) and the correlation coefficient is statistically significant, which is indicated by an error of app. 0.1% (Significance F). The parameters are significant (at the error level of α = 0.05%). The AAGR for the aggregate NWFPs products is + 17.8%.
The NWFPs placement on the domestic market is characterized by a rising trend, except in 2009 and 2013, when there was a decline in the place-Map 1. Surveyed enterprises in the area of the Jablanica District *Source: original   Figure 2). The highest AAGR was recorded in the placement of mushrooms (+ 30.6%) and herbs (+ 3.4%), while the cumulative placement on the domestic market was + 0.4% (Table 7).
The placement of NWFPs on the domestic market (Table 7) takes place according to a second degree polynomial model, with a very strong correlation (0.835). The correlation coefficient is statistically significant, which is indicated by an error of app. 5% (Significance F). The parameters are significant (the error level of α = 0.05%).
The export trends are characterized by a positive AAGR in the case of: wild berries (blueberries dominated in exports) in the amount of + 26%, whereas the mushrooms (mainly boletus) recorded a lower average linear growth rate of app. +5.4%.  The NWFPs (aggregate) export was raising, except in the first two years of the period, when it recorded a fall in exports (Figure 3). Table 8 Elements of the regression analysis of NWFPs export The NWFPs (aggregate) ( Table 8) export is performed largely to the EU and the Macedonian markets. In this model a second degree polynomial has been used. There is a very strong correlation (0.948) and the correlation coefficient is statistically significant, which is indicated by an error of app. 0.3% (Significance F). The parameters are significant (at the error level of α = 0.05%). The average annual exponential growth rate is + 32.6%.
The average linear growth rate of the sale of beech logs (K class) (Table 9) and fire wood (Table 10) is + 12.7% and -59, and it takes place according to a linear trend. There are very strong correlations.

Price
On the basis of the realized amount of final NWFPs and their market prices, it was found that the total gross revenue in the domestic market of five analyzed enterprises amounted to around 82.4 million RSD. In 2013, the largest revenue of 62.4 million RSD was recorded for blueberry, while the other final products had a significantly lower proportion in the total gross income.
The total gross revenue earned by the placement of NWFPs on the international market of the 3 analyzed enterprises was about 246.6 million RSD. The most significant income of 140 million RSD in the year was recorded for deep frozen blueberry, followed by boletus with 66 million RSD and raspberries with 24 million RSD. In 2013, the income realized by the sales of NWFPs in the domestic market was 25%, while the revenue earned by the placement on the international market was 75%.  In 2013, the total gross income of the FE from beech wood assortments in the domestic market was app. 87 million RSD. The most significant income is generated by the sales of RI class beech logs (41.3 million RSD) and R II class logs (20.9 million RSD), while the other classes of logs and fire wood had a smaller share in the total gross income. The share of realized RI class beech logs in the total gross income is 47%, while the share of R II class logs is 24%. Other wood products accounted for 29% of the total gross income.

DISCUSSION
Product is everything (physical goods, services of all kinds, distribution, etc.) that can be offered in the market to cause attention, purchase, use or consumption, in order to satisfy certain needs or desires (Kotler, 1997). Enterprises engaged in NWFPs, included in this research, are based on the purchase and processing of mushrooms, wild berries and herbs.
Depending on their size and range of adjustment and according to market demands (Marčeta and Keča, 2014), they sell their products in domestic and foreign markets, which is similar to studies conducted in other municipalities in Serbia (Keča et al., 2011. NW-FPs included in this study belong to the group of "non-durable" consumer goods (Kotler et al., 2007). The greatest uncertainty in the assessment of market mushrooms is their dependence on climatic conditions in the current and previous year. Thus, for example, in 2014 there was plenty of rainfall. The result was a large number of mushrooms and the achievement of significant revenue for the collectors and the others involved in the production chain.
In contrast to the aforementioned year, 2012 was an extremely dry year, and mushrooms were almost nil throughout the year, while in 2013 they appeared only in certain areas in a much lesser degree. The analyzed enterprise engaged in wood products usually sells its products in the domestic market, mainly to wood processors in the region where they are located (Jablanica).
Price is the only element in the marketing mix that produces income, while all other elements represent costs (Blythe J., 2006, Keča, 2013. In enterprises engaged in purchasing, processing and sale of NWFPs in the Republic of Serbia, the starting point is an adequate choice of suppliers, which will supply the raw materials of appropriate quality at affordable prices and convenient form of payment (Keča et al., 2012/a). The analyzed enterprises use the "cost plus" system as a basis for price determining (Lamb et al., 2013), while the dominant factors in the formation of prices of wood assortments are demand and costs arising from the time of cutting to placement.

CONCLUSIONS
The following conclusions were reached on the basis of this research: • -an average annual growth rate of forest fruits purchase was 15.2%, 7.8% of medicinal herbs and 94.4% of mushrooms and the aggregate average was 17.8%;